Visa bulletin current in September 2013
- Thread starter pm2020
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Reasons could differ. For instance, one of the reasons was changing the rules. DV-14 requires passport spelling in the initial entry, unlike DV-13. They wanted to be overconfident.
Decision to open hidden winners next year (DV-14) is a separate decision probably made by another department at DOS. That is on top of that 20% increase. Because switching between open and hidden winners does not affect the published statisticts, including number of winners.
Not in the system? Syria, Lebanon. Not much, maybe 15% total are lost because of those consulates and some more and AOS. However, you need to realize only between 30% and 50% send documents to KCC, others do not do that.
I totally disagree.
I do not have DV-14 data for analysis because it was not published - that is your point. However, it does not differ much from previous lotteries, because they do not differ much from each other. So, that is not a strong point.
Are you serious?
BTW, in DV-1 they had 25354 winners from Asia, and the cutoff was never higher than 6692. Others did not have a chance to be scheduled for an interview. That is 74% who did not have a chance.
franko
Well-Known Member
Chillax people!
What raevsky is posting (and others for that matter) are simply GUESSTIMATES! Based on previous years with no insight into DV2014. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the pattern there or simply extrapolate the available data and make a prediction, however...there is no way we can be sure how the lottery pans out throughout 2013/2014. Simply because there is too many influential factors missing from the equations. For example we can have another Bangladesh situation, maybe a gang scammers in the Ukraine or Nigeria or anywhere else in the world applied for other people and try to extort money, maybe during the processing there will be more AP for people based on their religion following Boston bombings (as the bombers where immigrants to the US and you know how paranoid they are there), maybe there is a new lady at KCC and she doesn't like gingers or blonds and after checking applicant photos she will manipulate data, maybe there will be a software glitch/failure, maybe because of the immigration reform being considered they will alter the process. What I'm trying to say is that there is a lot of "maybes" and people
should stay positive. Wait for the visa bulletins, see where are the cut-offs around January 2014 and then it will be easier judge the when numbers might become current.
I know raevsky is a total buzzkill and he replies like a robot but being too positive wouldn't be any better in my opinion so relax and wait. That is what I am going to do anyway.
What raevsky is posting (and others for that matter) are simply GUESSTIMATES! Based on previous years with no insight into DV2014. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the pattern there or simply extrapolate the available data and make a prediction, however...there is no way we can be sure how the lottery pans out throughout 2013/2014. Simply because there is too many influential factors missing from the equations. For example we can have another Bangladesh situation, maybe a gang scammers in the Ukraine or Nigeria or anywhere else in the world applied for other people and try to extort money, maybe during the processing there will be more AP for people based on their religion following Boston bombings (as the bombers where immigrants to the US and you know how paranoid they are there), maybe there is a new lady at KCC and she doesn't like gingers or blonds and after checking applicant photos she will manipulate data, maybe there will be a software glitch/failure, maybe because of the immigration reform being considered they will alter the process. What I'm trying to say is that there is a lot of "maybes" and people
should stay positive. Wait for the visa bulletins, see where are the cut-offs around January 2014 and then it will be easier judge the when numbers might become current.
I know raevsky is a total buzzkill and he replies like a robot but being too positive wouldn't be any better in my opinion so relax and wait. That is what I am going to do anyway.
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Well, in may 2012 my method allowed me to calculate max number for winners including hidden EU winners for DV-12. And that was 56000, very close to what we currently as max for DV-14 in EU. That is a major success of the theory. I am not saying this is an absolute truth, but that is a working theory. It has this type of successful prediction and does not have major drawbacks. Also, I have not seen alternative theories that predicted anything.
Also, opposed to GUESSTIMATES my method is based totally on facts.
Other than that, you are totally right. Without DOS publishing data for DV-14 I really rely on a lot of things as if they were in DV-13. Some things could change (not much), and also regional quotas could change (but if some of them go up, some others need to go down because world quota does not change).
More data will appear in about a month when CEAC gets data for DV-14. It will produce even more precise results, as Lucky18 has mentioned
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OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
What exactly are 'hidden' winners...are these family members immigrating on the basis of the principal applicant's case?
If so, I read somewhere here that the average family requires 1.6 visas per case number ... to me that means that the great majority of DV winners that are actually successfully getting their visas, are singles or couples. It does make sense I guess, because a family with young children may find it more difficult to actually take that final step. (sorry for them, but good for others).
Hidden winners are winners who do not know they are winners. DOS considers them winners on the official results of DV lottery, and they are included into total counts of winners per their native countries. However, they do not know they are winners and cannot apply for further processing.
Example. We all know there are 16045 winners (not including family members) from Asia. However, on CEAC Asian winner's numbers go only up to number 10700 or so, then numbers stop. Obviously, you cannot fit 16045 winners into 10700 numbers. So, about 9K winners are notified they are winners (among those 10700 numbers) and the rest 7K winners are not notified and do not know they are winners. Those 7K out of 16K are hidden winners. They are included into official reports as winners, but cannot participate in further processing until second batch of open winners is released (from those hidden winners)
Example. We all know there are 16045 winners (not including family members) from Asia. However, on CEAC Asian winner's numbers go only up to number 10700 or so, then numbers stop. Obviously, you cannot fit 16045 winners into 10700 numbers. So, about 9K winners are notified they are winners (among those 10700 numbers) and the rest 7K winners are not notified and do not know they are winners. Those 7K out of 16K are hidden winners. They are included into official reports as winners, but cannot participate in further processing until second batch of open winners is released (from those hidden winners)
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Kayend
Active Member
You mean all selectee applied and all get their visa? Only 9k selectee are notify and at the same time it has 9k of visa issued. I don't think it is ever happen before. When you mentioned dv-1, which year are you referring to?
I am talking about DV-13. Not everybody sent forms to KCC. But all who sent were granted interview regardless of case number
What do you mean? Bangladesh? Yes, Bangladesh' was present before. That is why the number of holes was much more other years. Bangladesh' was excluded only recently.
First DV program was called DV-1. Next program was DV-96, so if we use current naming convention, DV-1 should have been called DV-95
Kayend
Active Member
Why only notify 9k selectee when they know not all will sent documents to KCC? 9k selectee notify and have 9k visa available, are they assuming all winners will apply and get their visa? If we said that the dependents is in their calculation then all prediction will be out because we don't know how many dependents are there each year.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I don't understand this at all. The numbers of winners released include family members. So for us, we were counted as 4 winners for our region, but all on one case number. Are you saying you get a different number of winners per region from somewhere else?
Kayend
Active Member
This is my understanding too. 16045 winners includes family members. That why the case # only up to 10700 for dv-13. 16045 winners but only 10700 case # issued and the case # is not in sequence because some are holes. If 15% are holes, then only 9k case # issued but the remaining 7045 are family members from the 9k case # issued. I don't think there are any hidden numbers even from previous years because each year the family members from each case # issued are different. So, if the prediction using previous years data is not accurate.
Alair Tudor
New Member
So raevsky, are you saying that anyone with a case number above 1580 in the SA region won't get called for an interview? I mean it doesn't make sense to me, thought that was usually always one of the regions to go current first is previous years. Basically are you saying the only region to go current for dv2014 would be Africa?? How many times in recent memory has this happened in the past?