FSW2015
Active Member
I think it is hopeless for us now
DV2015 Winners from Sri Lanka
- Thread starter Idea Mani
- Start date
johnelliot344
Member
I think it is hopeless for us now
it does seem that way doesnt it.........just wait for britsimon's explanation, there may still be hope yet
but my jaw dropped when i first saw that number....i thought i was reading the wrong page at first i had recheck it
it's possible they put two jumps into one in september but i don't know
FSW2015
Active Member
Yes my friend, same feeling here, my jaw literally dropped. Simon is saying there is still a chance for a 3000-4000 jump depending on Iran. Let's hope it will be enough for us. I hope the embassies' capacities can handle that though..it does seem that way doesnt it.........just wait for britsimon's explanation, there may still be hope yet
but my jaw dropped when i first saw that number....i thought i was reading the wrong page at first i had recheck it
it's possible they put two jumps into one in september but i don't know
Smurfette
New Member
But 4000 jump not enough for me.
However I feel we still have the chance. Especially we should be more constructive while we are expression noise in this forum. It will be help to others to continue their expectation until end.
Keep calm, wait and see…
Good Luck..!
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Up, by a lot I hope.So bottom line, where is Asia going? Last VB was unbelievable.. I'mm freaking out
As you have nicely sum up for us, we could be missing something all along.
terryadamson7
New Member
Hello Guys...
I am out of the game. To be frank...really disappointed and broken.
End of the day...most of us here are from third world countries and I am a Sri lankan. I wish that if I had won, my son will get a brighter future and we get a better standard of living.
Anyways I thank Bristsimon, ideamani,mom and all others who interacted. Sorry if I had missed out. I would say that you guys are doing a fabulous job here. Helping someone without knowing and without expecting any return is like diamonds...you only find few people on earth.
Wasted alot of time...I almost had processed most of the documents needed. More than a year...Hope...time...seriously KCC should get do do something about this as well. It is very hard to digest after this long.
Anyways...BEST OF LUCK FOR THE REST.....BYE BYE...
I am out of the game. To be frank...really disappointed and broken.
End of the day...most of us here are from third world countries and I am a Sri lankan. I wish that if I had won, my son will get a brighter future and we get a better standard of living.
Anyways I thank Bristsimon, ideamani,mom and all others who interacted. Sorry if I had missed out. I would say that you guys are doing a fabulous job here. Helping someone without knowing and without expecting any return is like diamonds...you only find few people on earth.
Wasted alot of time...I almost had processed most of the documents needed. More than a year...Hope...time...seriously KCC should get do do something about this as well. It is very hard to digest after this long.
Anyways...BEST OF LUCK FOR THE REST.....BYE BYE...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
You are at 11XXX - right? So - your goose is not cooked yet. You should at least have a peek at the VB in a few weeks time....
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Simon, what's the temp on the range now? (i.e.What do you think Iran will get at the end if you were yo pick 1 number?)
Depends on the temp, the goose might be cooked later rather than sooner.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Iranian AP cases seem to be cleared in batches. Not sure why that is - but it means we could see mini jumps, rather than a linear approach. AS as a whole is 4495 as of last night(4253 at month end).
Iran looks like 1242 (with over 850 people on AP). Those figures at month end were 1169 with ~750 on AP. I think that shows they haven't had their "batch" release yet this month - they will get a number of cases being approved at steady pace which do not go into AP.
Now - to speculate. Let's say that all cases in AP now will clear - because we assume there is enough time. Most will clear approved - let's assume 750/800 of the 850. That means we have 2000 ish in the bag. . I imagine we can expect around 150 to 200 approvals per month without AP - so 500 to 700 in the 3.5 months still to process. So - I think we are going to see Iran over 2500. It is possible to get to 3000 without too much leap of imagination - but if I had to guess I would still expect under 3000. At 3000, in my mind, numbers for ROA under 10,000 start to get threatened.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Thank you for sharing Simon
Sensei-san
Active Member
I would think many of the current APs would not clear in time. Anyway, In my estimation Iran would be under 2500.
Sensei-san
Active Member
I hope whoever is cooking my goose will at least make it kosher.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Me too, and after going through an emotional couple of days, I just want to know what's going on.
It seems every time I think theres a better jump around the corner, it wasn't there when I looked around it.
Before I ask the following like a broken record, just to point out the hinges on Iran and quota doesn't change theory is well understood.
Most probably the VO is also making a guess on Iran's final number too, so a conditional answer could be better by the most likely case in your opinion.
If the regional quota is reduced, where did it go, other regions? globally reduced?
Why is the big jump and little increase ( Aug and Sept 2014) seems to be reversed?
Is it just wishful thinking the big jump will happen?
Where do you think the next VB for Asia is heading?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
You are going to hate my answer.
I know you know about Iran AP. The thing is, KCC will know about the AP clearing timeline way before we will. They will make the VB decision based on that information and possibly even some commitment on AP processing made to them that we are not even privy to. So - the final VB for AS is unguessable beyond the scenarios we have already discussed (i.e. Iran > 3000 = AS Final <10000 and so on).
Anxiety2015
Active Member
You are going to hate my answer.
I know you know about Iran AP. The thing is, KCC will know about the AP clearing timeline way before we will. They will make the VB decision based on that information and possibly even some commitment on AP processing made to them that we are not even privy to. So - the final VB for AS is unguessable beyond the scenarios we have already discussed (i.e. Iran > 3000 = AS Final <10000 and so on).
Simon, there's not an ounce of hate to your(any) answer.
On the contrary, I am grateful for all the answer from you and all others.
I fully understand any analysis, theory or discussion will not change the outcome. It is considered as fixed but unknown.It is about time for me to take a deep breath, summon the courage, let go of the emotion and stop thinking about it.
For that wake-up call, I thank you.