YOUR ANALYSIS HERE: VSC Progress

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wherezgc

Registered Users (C)
Hi I am hoping people can share their own insights and expectations. Here is a simplistic model that I've created to adjust my own expectations:
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Per Rupnet data we now have 15% of November01 cases either approved or touched via RFE. If we assume a high "no show" ratio of registered rupnet users of 1/3, let's say this means that 20% of all November cases in the general population have now been approved.

This progress took BCIS about 4 weeks of real Nov processing (not counting those freak Maryland transfer approvals of many months ago).

So these guys processed 20% of November01 in 4 weeks. That's 5% progress per week. Not very good. This was also the speed at which October cases were being processed last year before the big freeze came on after Thanksgiving.

If they were to stick to same speed, expect the remaining November cases to be finished over the next 16 weeks. That's 4 months to finish off November.

Now let's assume for arguments sake that BCIS speeds up a little and they start processing a given month in a bit less time taking 4 months instead of 5 monts like they did for November, and finally they speed up even more and start taking 3 months per monthly processing. That gives us...

Nov01: Mar-July 2003 (5 months to finish)
Dec01: Aug-Nov 2003 (4 months to finish)
Jan02: Dec-Feb 2004 (3 months to finish)
Feb02: Mar-May 2004 (3 months to finish)

I admit this is a clunky and simplistic projection. Also we can never know what other unkowns BCIS and DHS will throw at us over the coming months.

If anyone has other projections/models to share with this board, I would love to see them. Maybe they will give us more hope and optimism during our wait.
 
No Good

How many people go and update Rupnet. Hardly 25%... may be not even that. So don't comeup with your estimation.
 
Re: No Good

Originally posted by Missyou
How many people go and update Rupnet. Hardly 25%... may be not even that. So don't comeup with your estimation.
Click to expand...

In Rupnet most of the previous months (May,June,July, Aug, Sep) show that 75-85% people have reported their approvals/RFEs. The rest are either "no-shows" or maybe a small minority of them never get approved who knows.

So we know that the percentage of people who come back to update is not 25%.

But I agree that my estimation is very pessimistic sounding. But what else can I base any guesstimate on in light of recent speeds. Maybe some old-old-timers can let us know how INS once almost reduced their 18 month back log down to 9 monts during 2000/2001. Maybe if they attain same speeds again, we'll see a dramatic improvement in outlook.
 
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analysis

I think your analysis is fair - probably a little cautious.
Even if only a small percentage update rupnet, if you look at the trend of the mails reporting approval they follow the pattern of the upates on Rupnet. What I mean is even if only 10% update rupnet they do so in the month that BCIS processing applications.
 
Gc quota

Correct If I am wrong.I have heard from one of my friend mentioned that There are some quota like number of GC should be approved from VCS by every year which is resetting by every August(or Sep) like H1 quota's. Do you guys have any idea about that?....

Just a thought???........
 
I totally Disagree

Well at the rate of you projection at some point in the future you get your I-485 Approved in real time!!!.

Come on....give me a break 5 months to Process Nov 02???

If you have more time do better things .....


What kind of analysis is this????How can you project performance of a group of people based on weird assumptions....
 
Guys, after 25th of April, Special Reg-Complete, I hope ISN will improve their speed. I am sure, but we should not expect approval as 6 months eariler. I don't think right now Group 5 is calling for SR,
 
I don't know what's going on with the whole system. Apparently, based on current speed, VSC will not finish Nov cases in 10 months! What is really going on there. After this month, there will be huge RFEs for Nov filers to redo finger prints. Then more wait.............. Isn't it a true ordeal?

I would like to see Dec cases getting approved this month amid with huge nov cases approvals, but it seems not the case. So many transfers and RFEs, no wonder Rupet never get updated.
 
I don't know what's going on with the whole system. Apparently, based on current speed, VSC will not finish Nov cases in 10 months! What is really going on there. After this month, there will be huge RFEs for Nov filers to redo finger prints. Then more wait.............. Isn't it a true ordeal?

I would like to see Dec cases getting approved this month amid with huge nov cases approvals, but it seems not the case. So many transfers and RFEs, no wonder Rupet never get updated.
 
Make Your Own Judgement! (10% approved for Nov 01, and more RFE's)

Results at 5:00pm, 3-31-03
EAC 02 056 53001 ~ EAC 02 056 53999

Total I-485 cases: 270

Approved: 24 (still less than 10%)

Most Recent Actions:

3/31/2003
RFE sent
RFE sent
RFE sent
RFE sent
RFE sent
Transferred

3/28/2003
Approved
Approved
Transferred

3/27/2003
Approved

3/20/2003
Misc

3-19/2003
RFE sent
 
Didn't you find out there're no 3/24, 3/25, 3/26 actions? I wonder if they have updated the online system completely
 
redo finger print?

Hi dengdeng
What do you mean by redo finger print?. Why should they redo the finger print?...Just curious?....
 
finger print expires after 15 months, most
Nov filers did finger print 2/2002, that means it will expire in 5/2003.

INS must speed up otherwise too many RFEs................
 
At the rate that this week also whizzed by, I am absolutely convinced that November will take another 4 months, with December parallel cases starting somewhere along the way before then once October is truly over.

Some of these poor October-01 guys have been waiting since last September (that's when October cases started). How many months has it been for them?

If someone told them last September that it would be another 6-1/2 months and that some of them would still not be approved, would they have believed it?

The figures in Rupnet are a joke. Still only 65% of October touched. What the heck has INS/BCIS done in 6-1/2 months? It's only one month's worth of applicants. It can't be all that difficult. What a joke!
 
Hi everyone.
I've been a silent visitor to this site for over a year. Didn't have anything valueable to say, so I didn't.
Here's Excel spreadsheet, I've been creating since July 2001.

My
RD 01/28/02
ND 02/15/02

Therefore, I only included in the xsl dates from July 2002 to January 2002.

I might find it interesting.

Best regards.
 
Wow

rickz,
This is awesome tracking data! I had started something like this last fall but had given up once the deepfreeze started.

It speaks tons about processing rate over time.

Great job!
 
Thanx, wherezgc.

I am as desperate to get the approval as the rest of us here...

That data is based on Rupnet, so thanks a lot to gretyk and the people updating it.

I go my second EAD a month ago (had real bad experience with NJ DMV), and am now waiting for AP extension.
 
gc_san
I heard that finger prints expire after 15 months. Again we have to redo finger prints and then we should get FBI clearence. So For people who did their finger prints in Jan 2002 they will expire this month.
 
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