Hi I am hoping people can share their own insights and expectations. Here is a simplistic model that I've created to adjust my own expectations:
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Per Rupnet data we now have 15% of November01 cases either approved or touched via RFE. If we assume a high "no show" ratio of registered rupnet users of 1/3, let's say this means that 20% of all November cases in the general population have now been approved.
This progress took BCIS about 4 weeks of real Nov processing (not counting those freak Maryland transfer approvals of many months ago).
So these guys processed 20% of November01 in 4 weeks. That's 5% progress per week. Not very good. This was also the speed at which October cases were being processed last year before the big freeze came on after Thanksgiving.
If they were to stick to same speed, expect the remaining November cases to be finished over the next 16 weeks. That's 4 months to finish off November.
Now let's assume for arguments sake that BCIS speeds up a little and they start processing a given month in a bit less time taking 4 months instead of 5 monts like they did for November, and finally they speed up even more and start taking 3 months per monthly processing. That gives us...
Nov01: Mar-July 2003 (5 months to finish)
Dec01: Aug-Nov 2003 (4 months to finish)
Jan02: Dec-Feb 2004 (3 months to finish)
Feb02: Mar-May 2004 (3 months to finish)
I admit this is a clunky and simplistic projection. Also we can never know what other unkowns BCIS and DHS will throw at us over the coming months.
If anyone has other projections/models to share with this board, I would love to see them. Maybe they will give us more hope and optimism during our wait.
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Per Rupnet data we now have 15% of November01 cases either approved or touched via RFE. If we assume a high "no show" ratio of registered rupnet users of 1/3, let's say this means that 20% of all November cases in the general population have now been approved.
This progress took BCIS about 4 weeks of real Nov processing (not counting those freak Maryland transfer approvals of many months ago).
So these guys processed 20% of November01 in 4 weeks. That's 5% progress per week. Not very good. This was also the speed at which October cases were being processed last year before the big freeze came on after Thanksgiving.
If they were to stick to same speed, expect the remaining November cases to be finished over the next 16 weeks. That's 4 months to finish off November.
Now let's assume for arguments sake that BCIS speeds up a little and they start processing a given month in a bit less time taking 4 months instead of 5 monts like they did for November, and finally they speed up even more and start taking 3 months per monthly processing. That gives us...
Nov01: Mar-July 2003 (5 months to finish)
Dec01: Aug-Nov 2003 (4 months to finish)
Jan02: Dec-Feb 2004 (3 months to finish)
Feb02: Mar-May 2004 (3 months to finish)
I admit this is a clunky and simplistic projection. Also we can never know what other unkowns BCIS and DHS will throw at us over the coming months.
If anyone has other projections/models to share with this board, I would love to see them. Maybe they will give us more hope and optimism during our wait.