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Winning chances dv lottery

A

al_lupoo

Registered Users (C)
Winning chances per year, per continent, per legitimate entry, DV-2007 through DV-2011

Region DV-2007 DV-2008 DV-2009 DV-2010 DV-2011
Africa 1.31% 2.40% 2.30% 2.19% 2.06%
Asia 0.48% 0.63% 0.64% 0.61% 0.68%
Europe 1.26% 1.85% 1.94% 2.10% 1.75%
North America 0.61% 0.64% 0.38% 0.69% 0.47%
Oceania 4.13% 4.57% 4.62% 5.49% 4.63%
South,Central
America,Caribbean 0.65% 0.84% 1.05% 1.69% 1.07%


Chances to get visa for winners, per year, per continent, DV-2007 through DV-2009

Region DV-2007 DV-2008 DV-2009
Africa 41.01% 43.47% 46.12%
Asia 59.59% 51.87% 55.37%
Europe 56.26% 56.50% 50.83%
North America 50.00% 29.41% 8.33%
Oceania 38.75% 41.42% 33.59%
South and Central America and the Caribbean 54.86% 45.26% 41.44%


2010 Results
For the 2010 Diversity Visa Lottery, the winning applicants were apportioned as follows:

Region Winner Allocation Country with Highest Number of Winners
Africa 52.63 % Ghana
Europe 29.04 % Ukraine
Asia 14.62 % Bangladesh
South,Central America,
Caribbean 1.93 % Venezuela
Oceania 1.76 % Australia
North America 0.02% Bahamas

Countries with High Fraud Level (percent of entries which are illegitimate and therefore disqualified during selection process)
Nigeria 82.77%
Egypt 70.54%
Ethiopia 68.57%
Sierra Leone 46.21%
Sudan 30.94%
Ghana 24.68%
Guinea 23.81%
Liberia 17.93%
Cameroon 11.64%
Ukraine 71.91%
Bangladesh 78.95%
 
Thoses figures are wrong by using simple logic...
Africa for instance... Nigeria get almost half or 1/3 of the african entries & only can get like 7 000 selected meaning a nigerian born will have way lower chance than another african born...
Asia, more than half of asian participans are from bangladesh, meaning that a bangladeshi will have way way lower chance (0.092%) of winning than any other asian born...
Same as ukraine for peoples... & thoses stats are taken from wikipedia & it was a user of this forum that wrote the article & it is full of errors...
First, he counted the deriviatives in the chance of being selected while in reality deriviatives doesn't count at all in the selection process...
For africa it is about 5% chance (exept nigerian)
simple math...
Bangladesh : 7.6 million entries with only 7 000 spots avaiable
Nigeria : 1.4 million entries for only 7 000 spots avaiable
Ukrain : about 1 millions spots...
So let takes for instance a turkish one who are 115k entries for 7 000 spots maximum...
Do you think that a turkish guy will have the same chance as the bangladeshi one...? It is just simple logic

to finish, 3 countries makes 2/3 of all entries (about 9 600 000 entries) for a total of 21 000 elected maximums & 5 millions entries for 69 000 entries (because now they select about 90 000 peoples)...
Using simple logic, do you think 9.6 millions peoples with only 21 000 spots have the same chance as the 5 millions ones with 69 000 spots...?
al_lupoo said:
Winning chances per year, per continent, per legitimate entry, DV-2007 through DV-2011

Region DV-2007 DV-2008 DV-2009 DV-2010 DV-2011
Africa 1.31% 2.40% 2.30% 2.19% 2.06%
Asia 0.48% 0.63% 0.64% 0.61% 0.68%
Europe 1.26% 1.85% 1.94% 2.10% 1.75%
North America 0.61% 0.64% 0.38% 0.69% 0.47%
Oceania 4.13% 4.57% 4.62% 5.49% 4.63%
South,Central
America,Caribbean 0.65% 0.84% 1.05% 1.69% 1.07%


Chances to get visa for winners, per year, per continent, DV-2007 through DV-2009

Region DV-2007 DV-2008 DV-2009
Africa 41.01% 43.47% 46.12%
Asia 59.59% 51.87% 55.37%
Europe 56.26% 56.50% 50.83%
North America 50.00% 29.41% 8.33%
Oceania 38.75% 41.42% 33.59%
South and Central America and the Caribbean 54.86% 45.26% 41.44%


2010 Results
For the 2010 Diversity Visa Lottery, the winning applicants were apportioned as follows:

Region Winner Allocation Country with Highest Number of Winners
Africa 52.63 % Ghana
Europe 29.04 % Ukraine
Asia 14.62 % Bangladesh
South,Central America,
Caribbean 1.93 % Venezuela
Oceania 1.76 % Australia
North America 0.02% Bahamas

Countries with High Fraud Level (percent of entries which are illegitimate and therefore disqualified during selection process)
Nigeria 82.77%
Egypt 70.54%
Ethiopia 68.57%
Sierra Leone 46.21%
Sudan 30.94%
Ghana 24.68%
Guinea 23.81%
Liberia 17.93%
Cameroon 11.64%
Ukraine 71.91%
Bangladesh 78.95%
Click to expand...
 
LINK? this is frm wikipedia & this are global link.. simple proof...
Do you know there is a maximum of 7 000 selected per country right?
You do know that this year Bangladesh makes more than 50% of all entries right? (about 7.6 millions)
So there is a paradox here because using thoses statistics, there will be more than 52 000 bangladeshi selected... Ok, let say that thoses statss are correct... there is a big paradox since there will be more than 52 000 bangladeshi selected but the rules state "no more than 7 000"... Come on peoples can't you use your logic before affirming something & defending it?
al_lupoo said:
Tell that to the U.S. State Department, is their statistical
Click to expand...
 
Even for nigeria, using thoses stats (2.06%), there would have been more than 28 000 selected but no more than 7 000 selected per countries... Come one peoples, how could you meet the minimum education requirement if you can't even do some simple maths...
 
jayo2k said:
Even for nigeria, using thoses stats (2.06%), there would have been more than 28 000 selected but no more than 7 000 selected per countries... Come one peoples, how could you meet the minimum education requirement if you can't even do some simple maths...
Click to expand...
How did you arrive at 28,000 in this e.g.? i.e..2.06% of what figure? Shouldn't it be calculated based 100,000 rather than the total amount of entries?
 
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That show that this statistic is damn wrong...
for 2012 there were 1 470 155 entries for nigeria... So if the chances were realy 2.06% like the thread starter said, there would be exactly 2.06%*1470155 = 30 285 selected for 2012 but the rules is no more than 7 000 selected... so just that simple exemple show that thoses stats are false...
Just simple math... they claim they are officials stats.. right, they can't even show the official link & thoses stats are from wikipedia...
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/TotalDVApplicantsbyCountry.pdf
in this OFFICIAL link, you will see, check on the nigerian entries & then calculate 2.06% of all thoses entries & you will see that thoses taxes are wrong
win dv said:
How did you arrive at 28,000 in this e.g.? 2.06% of what figure?
Click to expand...
 
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joy's knowledge of DV is limited to what is given in Wikipedia!!
How surreal!!

Feel sorry for him, just let him dwell n 'joy in his 'wisdom' ppl.!!
 
jayo2k said:
That show that this statistic is damn wrong...
for 2012 there were 1 470 155 entries for nigeria... So if the chances were realy 2.06% like the thread starter said, there would be exactly 2.06%*1470155 = 30 285 selected for 2012 but the rules is no more than 7 000 selected... so just that simple exemple show that thoses stats are false...
Just simple math... they claim they are officials stats.. right, they can't even show the official link & thoses stats are from wikipedia...
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/TotalDVApplicantsbyCountry.pdf
in this OFFICIAL link, you will see, check on the nigerian entries & then calculate 2.06% of all thoses entries & you will see that thoses taxes are wrong
Click to expand...
Perhaps the winning percentage should not be calculated based on the ENTRIES but rather 100,000..makes sense to me...OR the stated percentages are incorrec...But hey, I can be wrong.
 
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If they were calculated on the percentage of the 100 000, then africa would have about 60 % of winner, but this is another topic
win dv said:
Perhaps the winning percentage should not be calculated based on the ENTRIES but rather 100,000..makes sense to me...OR the stated percentages are incorrec...But hey, I can be wrong.
Click to expand...
 
My bad, there is no 7000 selected limit per countries.. it is 6000
Click to expand...
That is incorrect. There is no limit per country. For instances, in DV-2010 Ghana had 8752 winners. And in DV-1 (equivalent of DV-1995) Poland had 52000 wins.
What is 6000 is not a limit per country, but a fair estimate for a high fraud country like Bangladesh. For instance, Ghana had only 25% junk entries in DV-2010, and did not have any limit.
Whemn the level of fraud in Ghana increased to 54% in DV-2011, they set this 6000 limit for it. It is not an actual limit, it is just a fair estimate of how many entries are left after all junk is removed.
 
oficial link please.. You might be correct but since you can't bring any link & your stat does not fit with the results, you lose your credibility.. OFICIAL LINK TO YOUR CLAIM PLEASE
raevsky said:
That is incorrect. There is no limit per country. For instances, in DV-2010 Ghana had 8752 winners. And in DV-1 (equivalent of DV-1995) Poland had 52000 wins.
What is 6000 is not a limit per country, but a fair estimate for a high fraud country like Bangladesh. For instance, Ghana had only 25% junk entries in DV-2010, and did not have any limit.
Whemn the level of fraud in Ghana increased to 54% in DV-2011, they set this 6000 limit for it. It is not an actual limit, it is just a fair estimate of how many entries are left after all junk is removed.
Click to expand...
 
What data exactly are you questioning? You cannot find data for Ghana in DV-2010? Or for Poland in DV-1? You probably need to enchance your search capabilities. Use google.
 
In the end it's just pure random luck. It doesn't matter if it's 4% chance or 0.6% chance it really does not make a difference. :rolleyes:
 
I want data stating the fraud level... not some calculation you made yourself that when we put with oficials number they does not fit... & adding to that the fact that in your stats, you included deriviatives... that alone shows that you make mistakes
raevsky said:
What data exactly are you questioning? You cannot find data for Ghana in DV-2010? Or for Poland in DV-1?
Click to expand...
 
I want data stating the fraud level... not some calculation you made yourself that when we put with oficials number they does not fit... & adding to that the fact that in your stats, you included deriviatives... that alone shows that you make mistakes
Click to expand...
Are you questioning that 2x2=4?
 
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