When will VSC process Oct 99 and later cases - a theory

R

Raju Krishnan

Registered Users (C)
All

I had a look at data on myladoor\'s immitracker site for VSC.
Assumptions:
- numbers are proportional to actual cases
- PD does not jump again in near future

AUG/SEP has about 230 cases in the charts
They have been processing them 5 months.
No of Sep cases Oct 00 cases count is less than Aug 99 -> Sep 99 cases !!

So Oct 99 to Sep 00 cases time taken should be about 6 months totally !

So if the PD doesn\'t jump, these cases should be done by July. Assuming a more realistic PD movement by some months, expect these to be
done by Sep.

Keep in mind that by March processing of the H1B flood would have subsided.
So they should have more people on 485s especially if they are serious about finishing them in one year.

Comments/Criticism welcome !
 
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Interesting theory.. But if I understand you right, your theory is based on the number of people whose names have been added to the tracker list maintained by Myladoor. If this is true, then your guess that Aug \'99 -> Sep \'99 cases are more than Oct\'99 - Sep\'00, may not be true because the list in the tracker may not even be 5% of the actual scenario.. (I maybe totally wrong on this). But hey, if you are right - I have no complaints.. :) ND 8/00. PD current.
 
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It is a fools domain to predict INS atuff but here I take the plunge too. Even though only 5% would have registered for later dates we can assume an equal proprtion could have registered for Aug 99 Sep 99 cases. So taking the law of averages into count I feel there would be a good progress in the processing dates in the next few months.
 
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Based on peoples feed back after discussing with IIO::
1. It may take another 2-3 Months to take Oct\'99 Cases. We are looking at March\'2001
2. Another 3-4 Months to Finish Oct\'99
3. God knows when they will process 2000 Cases...
 
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Raju Krishnan,

My feeling is that the tracker data is about little "skewed/biased" on approval data (and hence in Aug and Sept 99 you will see more data compared to other months) as people tend to post after an approval. My gut feeling is that you should apply a 25% skew to Aug and Sept. And it is a fact VSC still gets a lot of additions almost daily, which means that we haven\'t got the representative sample, not yet.

Way out: All of us should add the info before approval itself, which will give us a better idea. Tracker has an ONLINE APPLICATION to add, modify and lookup the data!

Note: I have much more confidence in NSC data, which is 4 months older than VSC, and our our predictions are working most of the time. And also NSC is relatively more systematic, though slow.
 
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If your prediction ie "3. God knows when they will process 2000
Cases..." is correct, why VSC sends FP notice to 485 RD/ND Aug/Sept
2000 cases in Nov/Dec 2000???

My 485 RD is August 14th 2000, ND is Sept 12th 2000. Got FP done on
December 27th 2000. Based on VSC 485 approval speed, I expect my 485
approval in next 1 to 1/2 year. But friend\'s theory is different. He
says "485 approval takes just 3-4 months after you done with FP".

Can some one pl shed light on this??

--V
 
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Let\'s have a Time-Table here. This is my prediction

jan 01 - VSC processes Aug, Sep 99 cases
Feb 01 - VSC continues with Sep 99 cases
Mar 01 - We should see approvals for Sep 99 and Oct 99 case
Apr 01 - Oct 99 cases contd.
May 01 - Nov 99 cases
Jun 01 - Dec 99 and maybe Jan 00 cases

I hope VSC does better than above and proves me wrong.

VSCRD1199
 
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Myladoor

Do you mean that Aug & Sep numbers are 1.33 times the original numbers ?
i.e. only 3/4 of the poster had their info BEFORE approval ?

Then we need to increase all times by a third

BTW Thanks for your good work on Immitracker.com
 
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venkat97

I am in a similar situation:
PD June 96 485 ND 6/00. FP 10/00

I spoke to IIO to check whether they got my FP results (they got it)
Then I asked - do you have any idea when my application will be approved ? She said 6-7 months.

I\'m hoping that once the TWO FLOODS are down to a stream things will move faster:
FLOOD#1: Large Numbers of I485s in Aug/Sep/Oct 99
          (Note 485 numbers from Oct 99 to March 00 would also be
           more than usual because of PD being current)
FLOOD#2: H1 processing during October - December
          All who were stopped by H1 limit in April 2000 would
          submit to INS in October. By Jan 2001 this load will be
          lighter

If you 485 ND is currently being processed (ie Sep 30 99 or less)
then the 3-4 months is valid

Hope this helps.
 
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Good prediction only thing I might add is to bump up one line for eg Jan 01 it will be Sep cases andFeb 01 will be Sep99-Oct99 cases ...etc I am an optimist surrounded by the forces of pessimism.

thanx
 
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If the IIO said 6 to 7 months, and if that is true, then it is indeed good news. And on the note of extrapolating tracker numbers, one thing to note is, Aug, Sep \'99 people have been waiting too long and they have had more time to add their dates, as opposed to post Oct \'99 people. So we cannot match them 1 to 1, I mean we may have 25% data for Aug \'99 but just 2% data for May \'00 and after.
 
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Am I right...
My RD is 10/27/99 and ND is 11/01/99. This means that ND is 5 to 6 days apart. Does it mean a lesser number of applications processed during october-november, when compared to 20-25days inbetween ND and RD for august september applications meaning though they received the application earlier to affix the stamp of receiving it took a long time based on the whole bunch of application.
 
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exactly!!!! although that is also a good indicator, but I was basing on some facts posted on this board couple of months back regarding the workload after sept99 how it is dropping........................
 
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I don think this has any significance. My RD is 01/10/00 and ND is 01/25/00. Do you mean to say that they received as many applications in Jan 00 as they received in Sept 99 ?

GARAMKUTTA
 
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Ok. This theory doesn\'t work. May be yours a mistake(just to make my theory right).

The theory is wrong.
 
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The date a record is created and also modified are kept by the tracker. From those only I felt that 30 % error.

Your correction to the bias seems good.
 
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madrascal

(Are you from Madras ??)

I think you will get approval by Sep/Oct 2001. (Dont hold me to this though!). Depends on State Dept NOT making PD CURRENT like they did last year.
Earlier in your post you had mentioned that the ratio may be way off for the cases after Aug/Sep 99 - I doubt it - Myladoors stats show that out of 4 cases, one is added after approval (25% of the total).
If the same ratio holds we will see quick movement after Jan/2001 of the 485 NDs being processed by INS VSC.
 
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