US citizen parents sponsoring over 21 son..

[xerostomic]

I was reading the bulletin board he has there and posts and "predictions" are all regarding employment immigration. To those with family based questions from what I've seen the answer is "let's hope visa bulletin moves in your category" and "I work with employment immigration", so I would not use that site for finding family-based immigration "predictions"

You are right, infact it seems that every one is interested in employement based immigration or family based immidiate relatives.
As the above graph depicts spike with fee increase in overall applications. we can easily conclude that a few more I-130's could also be a part of blue portion of graph, which might continue to put strain for a couple more months.

Another thing that I noticed is that spike due to fee increase is much higher than spike due to 245i, the reason being that 245i spike is constitued almost entirely by extra I-130's or I-140's filed during that period, while fee increase spike brought in extra applications from dozens of other immigrant and non-immigrant types that caused a much bigger spike than 245i.

 

[xerostomic]

FB1 immigrant visa numbers

Hi check out this link. Page 28 and 29 show that they actually reduced visa numbers for FB1 to half in 1990's, shifting the numbers to FB2. that is why FB1 , which used to be current started to backlog after mid 90's. In that way first preference started to lag behid and second preference kept on moving fast.

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/2ndfullTriReport.pdf

 

[thera33]

You are right, infact it seems that every one is interested in employement based immigration or family based immidiate relatives.
As the above graph depicts spike with fee increase in overall applications. we can easily conclude that a few more I-130's could also be a part of blue portion of graph, which might continue to put strain for a couple more months.

Another thing that I noticed is that spike due to fee increase is much higher than spike due to 245i, the reason being that 245i spike is constitued almost entirely by extra I-130's or I-140's filed during that period, while fee increase spike brought in extra applications from dozens of other immigrant and non-immigrant types that caused a much bigger spike than 245i.

Your theory on this is totally incorrect. 2451's(2000-2001) carry a heavier strain at that time than the fee increase(FEB 2002). We were stuck at April 22, 2001 for over a year and yet we were not stuck before FEB 19, 2002. Fee increase will have only a heavier strain as it relates to the increase of July 2007. Study the graph more carefully.

The real question is: How will the fee increase of 2007 impact on FB1 as it pertains to FB2B case status upgrades to FB1. (Petitioners who applied for citizenship before July would likely upgrade their petitions for relatives, and most of them whom is eligible for citizenship was in the U.S. up to 2002)

 

[xerostomic]

Your theory on this is totally incorrect. 2451's(2000-2001) carry a heavier strain at that time than the fee increase(FEB 2002). We were stuck at April 22, 2001 for over a year and yet we were not stuck before FEB 19, 2002. Fee increase will have only a heavier strain as it relates to the increase of July 2007. Study the graph more carefully.

The real question is: How will the fee increase of 2007 impact on FB1 as it pertains to FB2B case status upgrades to FB1. (Petitioners who applied for citizenship before July would likely upgrade their petitions for relatives, and most of them whom is eligible for citizenship was in the U.S. up to 2002)

threa apart from 2007 fee hike, you are actually saying the same thing that I said, but I think you didn't read my post carefully.
I also said that Feb 2001 fee increse will not have as sever effect as 245i, although fee increase spikes seems much bigger than 245i, but this spike is constitued by dozen of other types applications rather than just I-130's as was the case with 245i spike, which was due only to I-130's and I-140's.
Thereoratically speaking we can still expect a little higher number of I-130's before fee increase. Secondly the dates pass Feb 19 doesn't mean that every one before that date got immigrant visa and it won't have any effect now. You remember the date from Dec 2000 to April 22, 2001 was reached within a year and it seemed that 245i bug was cleared but actually 245i continued to put strain at the very end of window period and the dates didn't move for 15 months after April 22, 2001.
Offcourse 2007 fee hike theoratically can cause more naturalizations and more conversions to FB1, but just for a second assume the situation of a person to whom FB1 PD could be immediately upon naturalization and he can bring his son and daughter, such a person would go for naturalization as soon as his naturlization requirements are full filled, he won't be waiting to delay his son or daughter's green card and then all the sudden realize that he should have naturalized because fee is gonna increase by $20.
so I don't think that 2007 fee hike will have any effect because ppl who are on stake prefer to naturalized on their earliest without any care to fee increase. only those naturalizations that are not linked to son or daughter's case upgradation could be more, and they don't effect us

 

[thera33]

threa apart from 2007 fee hike, you are actually saying the same thing that I said, but I think you didn't read my post carefully.
I also said that Feb 2001 fee increse will not have as sever effect as 245i, although fee increase spikes seems much bigger than 245i, but this spike is constitued by dozen of other types applications rather than just I-130's as was the case with 245i spike, which was due only to I-130's and I-140's.
Thereoratically speaking we can still expect a little higher number of I-130's before fee increase. Secondly the dates pass Feb 19 doesn't mean that every one before that date got immigrant visa and it won't have any effect now. You remember the date from Dec 2000 to April 22, 2001 was reached within a year and it seemed that 245i bug was cleared but actually 245i continued to put strain at the very end of window period and the dates didn't move for 15 months after April 22, 2001.
Offcourse 2007 fee hike theoratically can cause more naturalizations and more conversions to FB1, but just for a second assume the situation of a person to whom FB1 PD could be immediately upon naturalization and he can bring his son and daughter, such a person would go for naturalization as soon as his naturlization requirements are full filled, he won't be waiting to delay his son or daughter's green card and then all the sudden realize that he should have naturalized because fee is gonna increase by $20.
so I don't think that 2007 fee hike will have any effect because ppl who are on stake prefer to naturalized on their earliest without any care to fee increase. only those naturalizations that are not linked to son or daughter's case upgradation could be more, and they don't effect us

Pass the Feb.19, 2002 date meant that we already assigned visa numbers to most of those petitions as long as they clear NVC and USCIS. (Remember we are dealing with PRIORITY DATES HERE no one can be assigned a visa number unless there priority dates is current....the fees did take effect on midnight FEB 19, 2002 and NOT Feb 20 or 22, 2002...so there has to be a slow down of applications after the FEB 19 deadline cause most people did want to beat the increase)What you get wrong about the 2451's is that nearly or over 70% of those petitions were filed during the week ending April 22, 2001 and there the logjam came into effect. Remember that a logjam also occurred at weekending Oct 22, 2000...that was the beginning of the extension period for 245i's.

This is not a matter for assumption but facts, many people who applied for naturalization in July 2007 has petitions in FB2 and there has to be some effect especially come next year. Remember FB1 has only over 23,000 numbers per year and there were over 2.7 million citizenship applications. Even if 5% has petitions in FB2 there are going to be some effects.

 

[xerostomic]

Pass the Feb.19, 2002 date meant that we already assigned visa numbers to most of those petitions as long as they clear NVC and USCIS. (Remember we are dealing with PRIORITY DATES HERE no one can be assigned a visa number unless there priority dates is current....the fees did take effect on midnight FEB 19, 2002 and NOT Feb 20 or 22, 2002...so there has to be a slow down of applications after the FEB 19 deadline cause most people did want to beat the increase)

If I am understanding properly you are saying the same thing that I said
What you get wrong about the 2451's is that nearly or over 70% of those petitions were filed during the week ending April 22, 2001 and there the logjam came into effect. Remember that a logjam also occurred at weekending Oct 22, 2000...that was the beginning of the extension period for 245i's.
I can agree that 70% of the applications could be in the last week of that five months period becasue I don't have any statistics on that. But I don't agree that Oct 22, 2000 Jam was due to 245i because life act was enacted on Dec 21, 2000. It did provide concession to those present earlier that Dec 21,2000, but the extra applications were filed only when ppl knew about this new change in law in Dec
This is not a matter for assumption but facts, many people who applied for naturalization in July 2007 has petitions in FB2 and there has to be some effect especially come next year. Remember FB1 has only over 23,000 numbers per year and there were over 2.7 million citizenship applications. Even if 5% has petitions in FB2 there are going to be some effects.

If I have son or daughter waiting for GC and my naturalization requirements are full filled (like 5 years of residence etc) I would apply for naturalization immediately rather than waiting for nothing and then realizing that I should go for it immediately only because fees are increasing in July 2007.

 

[thera33]

If I have son or daughter waiting for GC and my naturalization requirements are full filled (like 5 years of residence etc) I would apply for naturalization immediately rather than waiting for nothing and then realizing that I should go for it immediately only because fees are increasing in July 2007.

The enactment which you speak of is simply a extension of the Oct 31, 2000 deadline.

People apply for citizens for various reasons, remember persons even see little difference in priority dates of FB1 and FB2B, not even thinking that Fb2 will hit the same April 22, 2001 logjam, upgrading will be the simplest way out, and then we MIGHT see a FB1 retrogression.

You may choose to naturalize immediately after 5 years, but there are many, many out there who wouldn't for some reason.

 

[xerostomic]

The enactment which you speak of is simply a extension of the Oct 31, 2000 deadline.

huh, I beg to disagree with you again. It's not an extension of Oct 31, 2000. It's actually the extension of Jan 1998. There was no 245i in between untill Dec, 2000.

People apply for citizens for various reasons, remember persons even see little difference in priority dates of FB1 and FB2B, not even thinking that Fb2 will hit the same April 22, 2001 logjam, upgrading will be the simplest way out, and then we MIGHT see a FB1 retrogression.

You may choose to naturalize immediately after 5 years, but there are many, many out there who wouldn't for some reason.

I know there are many who would naturalize much later than 5 years, but I can bet that those won't have an unmarried son or daughter waiting for GC. A person whose sibling is waiting for GC would naturalize on earliest esp if he know that his son would come immediately after naturalization. I am concerned only with those naturalization applicants who have sponsred their children, we have nothing to do with others and we don't care if they naturalize in 5 year or 10 years or not at all.

 

[mermaid06]

The main question still remains: How many fb1 and fb2b I130s were received during 2002. I have to search for this statistic which I think should be publicly available. If we know that 40,000 applications were filed under both categories then we can assume most of those are in FB1 now due to sponsor naturalizations.
If I understand this correctly then with hypothetical 40,000 in FB1 we can expect visa bulletin to cover 2002 over a two year period from december 2007 to dec 2009.

I know there are many who would naturalize much later than 5 years, but I can bet that those won't have an unmarried son or daughter waiting for GC. A person whose sibling is waiting for GC would naturalize on earliest esp if he know that his son would come immediately after naturalization. I am concerned only with those naturalization applicants who have sponsred their children, we have nothing to do with others and we don't care if they naturalize in 5 year or 10 years or not at all.

 

[xerostomic]

I was also trying to find some statistics that could show the number of I-130 receipts issued in 2002 by preference category, but I guess there aren't any available on internet. To the best I could find is a following link, but that doesn't answer our question.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_2541.html
If any of you find those stats then plz drop in here.

 

[mermaid06]

This information in not readily available for obvious reasons: it would uncover what is going on at USCIS. Most likely instead of allotted 23,500 for FB1 let's say 15,000 are used up every year.

Lawyers would probably have this information...

I was also trying to find some statistics that could show the number of I-130 receipts issued in 2002 by preference category, but I guess there aren't any available on internet. To the best I could find is a following link, but that doesn't answer our question.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_2541.html
If any of you find those stats then plz drop in here.

 

[xerostomic]

Another link

Here is another link of interest. It does show the number of I-130's received at all service centers each year, but that is not by each visa category

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html

Total number of I-130's approved in 2002 at all service centers is 340617, but we don't know how many of them were immdiate relative, FB1,2,3 and 4. We will do some statistical work to roughly get a figure.

Total number of I-130's approved in 2002 at all service centers is 340617.
From USCIS website I came to know that number of immediate relative visa issued in 2002 were 178,142
Total family based quota I-130 left 162475
From USCIS website I concluded that FB1 I-130 could be roughly 20% of overall family based I-130's.
Now if we take 20% of 162475 it will come out around 32 thousand of overall I-130's in 2002.
The only variable part of this calculation is the 20% that I took for FB1. I took 20% because number of FB1 visas issued in 2002 were 11% and looking at the rate at which backlog builts I suppose that the I-130's received would be 20%.

 

[mermaid06]

Check this out http://www.immigrationforum.org/documents/TheDebate/ImmigrationReform/FamilyBacklogBackgrounder.pdf
All “immediate relatives” plus all of the family preference categories must fit within an overall ceiling for family-based immigration of 480,000, but this ceiling can be exceeded due to the fact that there is a “floor” of 226,000 for the family preference categories (non-immediate relatives) coupled with the fact that immediate relatives are not capped. (So, when immediate relative immigration is more than 254,000 (480,000 – 226,000), the overall ceiling is “pierced.”) For many years now, there have been no more than 226,000 visas allocated to the family preference categories because immediate relative immigration has been more than 254,000 per year. This is the heart of the backlog problem with family preference immigration.


Wow, number of immediate relatives IS AFFECTING all other categories. I did not realize that until now

Here is another link of interest. It does show the number of I-130's received at all service centers each year, but that is not by each visa category

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html

 

[xerostomic]

Check this out http://www.immigrationforum.org/documents/TheDebate/ImmigrationReform/FamilyBacklogBackgrounder.pdf
All “immediate relatives” plus all of the family preference categories must fit within an overall ceiling for family-based immigration of 480,000, but this ceiling can be exceeded due to the fact that there is a “floor” of 226,000 for the family preference categories (non-immediate relatives) coupled with the fact that immediate relatives are not capped. (So, when immediate relative immigration is more than 254,000 (480,000 – 226,000), the overall ceiling is “pierced.”) For many years now, there have been no more than 226,000 visas allocated to the family preference categories because immediate relative immigration has been more than 254,000 per year. This is the heart of the backlog problem with family preference immigration.


Wow, number of immediate relatives IS AFFECTING all other categories. I did not realize that until now

In 2007 the immediate relative visas issued were 219,323
FB1 visas issued were 17,522. I don't know why the rest of FB1 visa weren't used in 2007. First the visa numbers are low secondly, the available numbers are not being used to full extent.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVIII.pdf

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVIp1.pdf

 

[mermaid06]

That's exactly my question:
23,400 - 17,522 = 5,878

Almost 6,000 of unused visas just in 2007 and just for FB1!!!! And this is with huge backlogs that we have 25% of allotted visas per year go unused!!! Do you guys see this or am I miscalculating something?
The report I quoted in my last message says that some visas do go unused due to "administrative delays" WOW

From visa bulletin:
Second: Spouses and Children, and Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Permanent
Residents: 114,200, plus the number (if any) by which the worldwide family preference level exceeds 226,000, and any unused first preference numbers
That's where roughly 6000 visas per year are going...or not

If you look at the spreadsheet i attached about 73,500 of family based visas for all numerically limited categories went unused in 2007 WHY?

Another question is why the limit for 4th preference is 65,000 while for first category the limit is 23,400??

In 2007 the immediate relative visas issued were 219,323
FB1 visas issued were 17,522. I don't know why the rest of FB1 visa weren't used in 2007. First the visa numbers are low secondly, the available numbers are not being used to full extent.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVIII.pdf

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVIp1.pdf

 

[thera33]

That's exactly my question:
23,400 - 17,522 = 5,878

Almost 6,000 of unused visas just in 2007 and just for FB1!!!! And this is with huge backlogs that we have 25% of allotted visas per year go unused!!! Do you guys see this or am I miscalculating something?
The report I quoted in my last message says that some visas do go unused due to "administrative delays" WOW

From visa bulletin:
Second: Spouses and Children, and Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Permanent
Residents: 114,200, plus the number (if any) by which the worldwide family preference level exceeds 226,000, and any unused first preference numbers
That's where roughly 6000 visas per year are going...or not

If you look at the spreadsheet i attached about 73,500 of family based visas for all numerically limited categories went unused in 2007 WHY?

Another question is why the limit for 4th preference is 65,000 while for first category the limit is 23,400??

For some unknown reasons the total visa number for FB1 have'nt been used. However last year there was an attempt on behalf of the visa office to use as much numbers last year. That is the reason you saw a better movement in the cut-off dates for FB1 in the last quater last year. The same is expected for this year because they have came under fire recently for not using up all the numbers. Movement however is dependent on the number of applications in this category with priority dates after FEB 22, 2002.

 

[drownfish]

In 2007 the immediate relative visas issued were 219,323
FB1 visas issued were 17,522. I don't know why the rest of FB1 visa weren't used in 2007. First the visa numbers are low secondly, the available numbers are not being used to full extent.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVIII.pdf

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVIp1.pdf

Mermaid check this link in 2007 total visa issued total 24539.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVp1.pdf

 

[xerostomic]

drownfish, actually there is a confusion. I think the statistics that I pulled out from USCIS web site and also the ones you presented in of your other post (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=1697429#post1697429) show the number of immigrant visas issed, they don't show the adjustment of statuses done. The stats that you presented later on show both immigrant visas and adjustment of statuses, if this is correct then it means they actually issed more visa than they were supposed according to FB1 quota, it's a good sign, let's hope they can exceede the FB1 quota this year again.
Do you guys have any idea about I-130 calculations that I did for 2002 in my previous post. Are these gonna be 32 thousand or any thing significantly above or below this figure.
P.S; sorry I couldn't reply earlier as my account was blocked, I don't know why?

 

[drownfish]

drownfish, actually there is a confusion. I think the statistics that I pulled out from USCIS web site and also the ones you presented in of your other post (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=1697429#post1697429) show the number of immigrant visas issed, they don't show the adjustment of statuses done. The stats that you presented later on show both immigrant visas and adjustment of statuses, if this is correct then it means they actually issed more visa than they were supposed according to FB1 quota, it's a good sign, let's hope they can exceede the FB1 quota this year again.
Do you guys have any idea about I-130 calculations that I did for 2002 in my previous post. Are these gonna be 32 thousand or any thing significantly above or below this figure.
P.S; sorry I couldn't reply earlier as my account was blocked, I don't know why?

xerostomic
I was confused and angry about the statistic report when I did my firt post. after read many you guys discussions in this forum, I start to understand why have this sitution. The number of visa issued for f1 175xx may be for all other countries except U.S. The rest of 58xx number visa issued which may be for the people like us legally stay in U.S and waiting for the priority dates also plus i245 adjustment. I believe a lot of people like you and me are legally staty in U.S and waitting for the priority date. I have been waited for the priority date come to current almost 6 years. I don't know how long I still have to wait.

 

[mermaid06]

xerostomic
I was confused and angry about the statistic report when I did my firt post. after read many you guys discussions in this forum, I start to understand why have this sitution. The number of visa issued for f1 175xx may be for all other countries except U.S. The rest of 58xx number visa issued which may be for the people like us legally stay in U.S and waiting for the priority dates also plus i245 adjustment. I believe a lot of people like you and me are legally staty in U.S and waitting for the priority date. I have been waited for the priority date come to current almost 6 years. I don't know how long I still have to wait.

Yeah, you are right Table VI does not include adjustments of status cases. But table V that you attached includes both adjustment of status and visas issued for a total of 24,500 in 2007. Now that makes sense. Wow then there were way more that 30,000 I130 filed per year in FB1 and Fb2b. I wonder how many?

What is your priority date, drownfish? I totally understand you regarding the wait. Who would have thought that it was going to take more than 5 years???? I certainly didn't. I thought 3 max 4 years, so naive...

Here I am investing tuition bucks continuously into this economy. And what do I get? Can't get any loans, can't live a normal life. Sitting on suitcases pretty much my whole young life. Come graduation in two years and I am not adjusted? Welcome to the H1B club which will severely limit my job opportunities.

Anyway, this is getting extremely frustrating especially for those in the country waiting to adjust. You basically can't plan anything...