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Trump attacks Diversity Visa program

saabe said:
So Trump should get his facts straight. Although of course,...we should take in consideration most of Africans didn't come as illegal immigrants or refugees and most invested enormously and went through many hassles and screening processes to move to the US,...so there was some sort of "natural selection". ...

So at the end what determines the likelihood of success of an immigrant, is not country of origin but personal qualities.
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This is precisely the point I made back in post 166.

(See, if you make short non-profanity laced posts i read them.)
 
Hello all

According to you, how likely is it that congress and the WH will reach an agreement on DACA before the 19th of Jan. Do you think congress has enough time to work on a new proposal now that the group of 6 proposal was rejected or is there a chance congress will put that proposal to vote even though the WH has rejected it ?
 
Aww jeez. I come on the forum to pages and pages of swearwords buried in a bunch of opinion filled rant. It will take me time to edit the cusswords out of that, or I just hit the delete button because it's quicker. You may or may not have a worthy opinion - I don't know because all I could see was a waste of my precious time on the screen.

@saabe, don't do that that again. The forum does has standards, and your rant sinks well below them and justifiably earned you a rebuke. Let's keep comments on topic, and free of all the swearing!
 
If congress cannot get deal on DACA before deadline(which I guess 19th jan) does it mean that DV 2019 May have a chance?
 
Mushy_hot said:
If congress cannot get deal on DACA before deadline(which I guess 19th jan) does it mean that DV 2019 May have a chance?
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I doubt that they will reach to a deal at this point and the GOP is already preparing a plan B in order to avoid government shutdown. In my opinion DV 2019 is still at risk, since results will be available until May and it means there still lot of open time for negotiations. We have to wait and see what happens.
 
Mushy_hot said:
You're taking these prognosis too seriously.
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Yes, that ^^. I'm hesitant to call other people's work a total and utter rubish, but Skopos Labs is not even hiding the specifics of what they're doing.

I'm greatly oversimplifying things, but imagine the following scenario: let's assume that during past 50yr all the bills related to immigration that were passed as law started with a phrase "To amend the immigration laws and the homeland security laws, and for other purposes." and all bills that didn't, were rejected by Senate. Does bill hr4760 start with that phrase? Oh MAN, it DOES! There's no way that this bill can be rejected now! Let's bump prognosis to 99.9%!

This is roughly how it works. It doesn't take into account anything that's currently happening in politics at all.

Update: "(Factors are based on correlations which may not indicate causation.)" - these are their words, not mine.
 
You’re getting in a fluff about the difference between 0.07 and 0.13. That’s (maybe) significant to a statistician, but you may as well just round both to 0.1 and leave it be ;) After all, if someone recalculated your chances of survival from jumping off a cliff up from 7% to 13%, would you jump? ;)
 
To all respondents:
If you had bothered to read my post, I was asking "wonder what may have influenced this?", ie are there any important news that you heard recently!
 
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Alien2010 said:
To all respondents:
If you had bothered to read my post, I was asking "wonder what may have influenced this?", ie are there any important news that you heard recently!
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I did read your post, if you had bothered to read my answer you’d have seen that the move in probability is not a significant move, hence nothing “important” to look for. If it had gone up to 30 or 40%, a big move, then the question about “important” news would be valid.
 
Here we go again, another "I get to have the last say".
Pray tell what qualification(s) do you have to tell if the move is significant or not.
Do forum participants have to "validate" their questions to you :)
 
Alien2010 said:
Here we go again, another "I get to have the last say".
Pray tell what qualification(s) do you have to tell if the move is significant or not.
Do forum participants have to "validate" their questions to you :)
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Qualifications? Among others, a masters degree in a statistical field related to social sciences. The kind of stuff used for... well, used for the kind of analysis we’re talking about here. Good enough for you?

I answer plenty of questions here, but when a logical response is met by someone getting all “if you bothered to read...”. Well yes, I did, and gave what I thought was a reasonable answer, but don’t worry I won’t make that mistake again. You can enjoy worrying about every change in your probability tracker without any further input from me, and rely on all the others who gave you solid answers.

Oh wait is answering your questions going to get a snarky remark about having the last say? Don’t worry, feel free to answer without worrying that I’ll need to get “the last say” in response. I hate it when people labor under misdirection, but if they’re determined to do it I’ll happily leave them be. Good night.
 
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