TN under Trump

M

Murph44

New Member
Does anyone have an inkling as to what will happen to the TN under Trump?

If the US pulls out of NAFTA is the TN then void and Canadians would have to leave their jobs?
 
There has to be a 6 month notice to withdraw so at least that much time should be there. While no one knows what will happen, I'd think (read hope) he'll strike a bilateral deal with Canada....
 
Hello to all, am on TN, have been for many years, plan to continue for at least a while longer. But ...
Been reading all the analysis I could read about what Trump is going to do about NAFTA and the likelihood of his canning the whole deal or various sections (including the VISA section, which could be viewed by the uninformed and jaded as "stealing" jobs from Americans).
Then I realized that the TN VISA numbers must be small compared to all the other NIV (like L-1 or H-1B), and looked for recent stats. I found this, but it has to be wrong, it shows less than 100 TN visas issued to Canadians every year for the last 5, and >10,000 issued to Mexicans. Can this be right?
https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/non-immigrant-visas.html
 
Actual VISAs, as opposed to entry status, are hardly ever issued to Canadians for any reason, let alone TN, quite simply because Cdns are visa-exempt for most statuses. For example, you have NEVER had a visa issued in all your years on TN (surprise!). Visas are sometimes issued at far-flung consulates, to avoid a potential candidate from flying all the way to US just to find they are ineligible.

Given the numbers you quote for Mexicans, and the fact that TN can last indefinitely and is more easlily qualified that H1, you can assume that there are just as many TNs as L1 and H1 workers out there, if not more.
 
Thanks for that clarification Nelsona. I knew there was an explanation for this discrepancy. So where are the statistics kept for TN "Status"? I remember reading a report a few years ago that showed the trend close to 100,000 from Canada (don't remember if that is total over a time period, or at a point in time, or per year).
Anyway, with numbers like that you can be sure it is in the "America First" sights.
 
Does above agreement talks about labour and visa policies? I could not find anything at least on above wiki's link.
 
this link is from FTA and predates NAFTA (1994). If/when US/Canada converge on a new bilateral trade agreement, I am sure they will publish new guidelines to grant work authorizations
 
38off said:
2013 - 612K, 2014 - 712K, 2015 - 787K
Hard to say from working if that is cumulative or during the specific time period alone.
That's much higher than I thought, larger than H-1B.
Click to expand...

That's the number of admissions in that status in a given fiscal year, not the number of people in that status in the USA at any given time. Some TN holders from Canada will live close to the border and travel back to Canada every weekend--meaning they are admitted in TN status 52 times a year. That wouldn't be the case for all TN holders but such people likely skew the statistics. I assume that there are very few H-1B holders from India who travel back to India every weekend.

Another thing that is interesting is that admissions in TN status exceed those in TD status by about a 10-to-1 ratio. I guess the TN is used primarily by single people (or married people both of whom have TN's) because the fact that the spouse can't work is probably a big turnoff for couples to come to the US as a TN-TD pair. Alternatively the TN holders who do go back to Canada every weekend may include a lot who are in long distance relationships with a partner in Canada again skewing the statistics. There would be less reason for a TN-TD couple to make really frequent trips back to Canada.
 
CalGreenCard, OK now it makes sense, # of entries. I go home maybe 5-10 times per year. Makes sense, some more, some less. Like I said, I remember reading some report, numbers less than 100K per year.
Also, not as worried now about them canning the whole deal or the TN status now that I saw the speeches and press conference yesterday. Looks like Trump is going to "tweak" the agreement (I'll assume the word means the same to him as to the rest of us).
 
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