No hope unless there is some reform - the math behind this
Here are some stats regarding the total number of EB3 applications received during the past years.
2001 : 85,847
2002 : 88,002
2003 : 46,415
2004 : 85,969
2005 : 129,070
2006 : 89,922
2007 : 85,030
Let us consider the plight of those with PD before 2004(say 2002 and 2003)
Assuming that applicants in 2001 are mostly taken care of(the last valid priority date for EB3 -India was Nov.2001, before it became U) - for 2002 and 2003 we have a total of 134,417 applications in EB3 category
Total EB-3 Visas available/year = approx. 40,000 (28.3% of 140K)
India's quota/year = 7% of 40,000 = 2,800
Now even if we assume that of the 134,417 EB-3 applications, 20% belong to Indian nationals ( a fair assumption based on some historical data) there are going to be around 27,000 EB-3 applications from Indians. But we know that every year, only 2,800 visas are allocated to Indians.
That would mean a wait of close to 10 years for those who have priority date of Nov/Dec. 2003. I know that some folks will come up with the argument that any unused EB-1/EB-2 will trickle down to EB-3( it has happened before wherein in a particular year, close to 17,000 EB-3 visas were allocated to India !!). So even if you are highly optimistic your wait will be probably not for 10 years, but say 5 years from now !! But I doubt that will happen as there are substantial number of EB-1 and EB-2 applications in the pipeline - that will make up for their respective quotas, leaving little of the trickle down effect. (At the bottom I have provided the number of EB-1 and EB-2 applications filed over the years). I don't even want to do the math for those who filed in 2005 or 2006.
No wonder PD is not moving for India. Without a reform/miracle nothing much can happen. If at least they allow the recapture of the unused visas (over the past 8 to 10 years), then an additional 200,000 -250,000 visas will be available to overcome the handicap that has resulted in the long wait.
HOPE I AM WRONG and the wait is not as long !!
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Here are some stats regarding the total number of EB-2 applications received during the past years.
(Total EB-2 Visas available/year = approx. 40,000 (28.3% of 140K)
2005 : 42,597
2006 : 21,911
2007 : 44,162
Here are some stats regarding the total number of EB-1 applications received during the past years.
(Total EB-1 Visas available/year = approx. 40,000 (28.3% of 140K)
2005 : 64,731
2006 : 36,960
2007 : 26,697
Here are some stats regarding the total number of EB3 applications received during the past years.
2001 : 85,847
2002 : 88,002
2003 : 46,415
2004 : 85,969
2005 : 129,070
2006 : 89,922
2007 : 85,030
Let us consider the plight of those with PD before 2004(say 2002 and 2003)
Assuming that applicants in 2001 are mostly taken care of(the last valid priority date for EB3 -India was Nov.2001, before it became U) - for 2002 and 2003 we have a total of 134,417 applications in EB3 category
Total EB-3 Visas available/year = approx. 40,000 (28.3% of 140K)
India's quota/year = 7% of 40,000 = 2,800
Now even if we assume that of the 134,417 EB-3 applications, 20% belong to Indian nationals ( a fair assumption based on some historical data) there are going to be around 27,000 EB-3 applications from Indians. But we know that every year, only 2,800 visas are allocated to Indians.
That would mean a wait of close to 10 years for those who have priority date of Nov/Dec. 2003. I know that some folks will come up with the argument that any unused EB-1/EB-2 will trickle down to EB-3( it has happened before wherein in a particular year, close to 17,000 EB-3 visas were allocated to India !!). So even if you are highly optimistic your wait will be probably not for 10 years, but say 5 years from now !! But I doubt that will happen as there are substantial number of EB-1 and EB-2 applications in the pipeline - that will make up for their respective quotas, leaving little of the trickle down effect. (At the bottom I have provided the number of EB-1 and EB-2 applications filed over the years). I don't even want to do the math for those who filed in 2005 or 2006.
No wonder PD is not moving for India. Without a reform/miracle nothing much can happen. If at least they allow the recapture of the unused visas (over the past 8 to 10 years), then an additional 200,000 -250,000 visas will be available to overcome the handicap that has resulted in the long wait.
HOPE I AM WRONG and the wait is not as long !!
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
Here are some stats regarding the total number of EB-2 applications received during the past years.
(Total EB-2 Visas available/year = approx. 40,000 (28.3% of 140K)
2005 : 42,597
2006 : 21,911
2007 : 44,162
Here are some stats regarding the total number of EB-1 applications received during the past years.
(Total EB-1 Visas available/year = approx. 40,000 (28.3% of 140K)
2005 : 64,731
2006 : 36,960
2007 : 26,697