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sloner axiom :)

rigateika said:
I would like to bring up another Sloner theory – holes.
It seems to me that he may be right stating that cases in DV-2014 have many holes.

I compared EU region in CEAC-02-02-2014 ( Rafikbo https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...5OFFUMWc#gid=0 ) and CEAC-09-30-2013 (Raevsky https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmbWzexdyvIldEs1d3VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&usp=drive_web#gid=2 ))

I counted cases and applicants with family members.
For example 223 cases and 500 potential visas means that in CN range 14000-14999 there were 223 cases registered in CEAC-2014. Those 223 cases could result in 500 visas issued (223 applicants + 277 derivatives).


It shows that there are more holes per thousand CN’s in 2014 than in 2013.
Also the greater is the case number – the more holes is there.
If this is true – then big CN’s in 2014 may have better chance.
What do you think?


CN = 14000-14999
2014: 223 cases, 500 potential visas------ 2013: 381 cases, 874 potential visas

CN = 15000-15999
2014: 207 cases, 443 potential visas----- 2013: 320 cases, 736 potential visas

CN = 16000-16999
2014: 210 cases, 461 potential visas----- 2013: 323 cases, 761 potential visas

CN = 17000-17999
2014: 173 cases, 382 potential visas----- 2013: 315 cases, 705 potential visas

CN = 18000-18999
2014: 156 cases, 337 potential visas----- 2013:284 cases, 658 potential visas

CN = 27000-28000
2013: 184 cases, 405 potential visas
Click to expand...
To me that sounds like by the end of May (2013) much more applicants responded to KCC than by end of January (2014). More will have to respond yet. Another reason is Ukraine. It's numbers stopped on 14682 in DV-13, but will continue further in DV-14 (approximately until 20K, but I am currently looking into it, EU already has data on CEAC up to 20050).
 
The max number for Ukraine is 18085 so far in DV-14. It could be slightly higher, but not much.
Click to expand...
Maximum number of Ukraine 16656. Although I have seen and 44000.
 
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I would like to bring up another Sloner theory – holes.
It seems to me that he may be right stating that cases in DV-2014 have many holes.
Click to expand...
Yes, you're right. I did the calculations and published in another forum.
There will be late, but they are few.
Nakara and quota raise the number even more.
 
sloner asia 5350 for april and case til 27k do u still thing all asian wil get interview...?
 
Sloner said:
Maximum number of Ukraine 16656. Although I have seen and 44000.
Click to expand...

Sloner, 16656 is the last for Ukraine in Rafiko CEAC data of 02-02-2014. However CEAC has 18085 for Ukraine entered on 02-04-2014 which is after 02-02-2014.

Raevsky: said:
To me that sounds like by the end of May (2013) much more applicants responded to KCC than by end of January (2014). More will have to respond yet. Another reason is Ukraine. It's numbers stopped on 14682 in DV-13, but will continue further in DV-14 (approximately until 20K, but I am currently looking into it, EU already has data on CEAC up to 20050).
Click to expand...

Raevsky, I agree that more cases will be added later. Just don't want to believe that there are so many people with late response. But still - the higher CN the more holes which is very encouraging.

What do you think about EU34XXX prospective? How safe is this number?

Thanks
 
rigateika said:
Sloner, 16656 is the last for Ukraine in Rafiko CEAC data of 02-02-2014. However CEAC has 18085 for Ukraine entered on 02-04-2014 which is after 02-02-2014.



Raevsky, I agree that more cases will be added later. Just don't want to believe that there are so many people with late response. But still - the higher CN the more holes which is very encouraging.

What do you think about EU34XXX prospective? How safe is this number?

Thanks
Click to expand...


EU34XXX is very, very safe.

Don't forget the CEAC data is not listing chargeability. So - there could be interviews in Ukraine much higher than the numbers Sloner and Raevsky are mentioning - but those could be from other countries.
 
Sloner, 16656 is the last for Ukraine in Rafiko CEAC data of 02-02-2014. However CEAC has 18085 for Ukraine entered on 02-04-2014 which is after 02-02-2014.
Click to expand...
How many numbers with 16656 to 18085 in the Ukraine?
sloner asia 5350 for april and case til 27k do u still thing all asian wil get interview...?
Click to expand...
I think even the KCC will not know the answer to the question. I remind you, everything will depend on Africa. If there is little sent forms and many failures. Visas could be exported to Asia.
 
Sloner said:
I remind you, everything will depend on Africa. If there is little sent forms and many failures.
Click to expand...

Right. If lots of African selectees decide their countries have more prospects than the USA, the other regions will benefit. Seems like an outside chance to me, but what do I know...

Hang on, I thought the software was going to change things radically - now we are relying on Africans changing their minds and getting refused????


Sloner said:
Visas could be exported to Asia.
Click to expand...

Along with the German beers and Macdonalds.
 
rafikbo76 said:
Looking at the cut-off evolution for Europe (Dv-2013) in this link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...M3FTbGJkU0s3ZjRkTVByTFFuSHc&usp=sharing#gid=1

Ukraine was cut at 14K-15K, but there were cases beyond that CN, and it is possible that they are chargeable TO Ukraine. Raevsky explanation (witch I agree with) for that sitution (just like Egypt and Uzeb) was that cases can be Ukranian not residing in Ukraine, so they were not cut.
Click to expand...
For Egypt I showed a number of cases where those numbers were Egyptians, Cairo website states country of chargeability. I also know a couple of participants from Uz whose numbers were much higher than Uz's limit. However, they mentioned country of residence as Russia, not Uz.

Also, in your spreadsheet for Asia you single out ANK and ABD. It makes sense to add one column - ANK + ABD + YER combined. That is for two counties together - Iran and UEA combined. Then it will be uniform.
 
Sloner said:
How many numbers with 16656 to 18085 in the Ukraine?
Click to expand...

I did not run all of them. My purpose was to find max for Ukraine. I ran 16700 through 20050 every 10th number, and they stopped on 18070. Then I ran 18070 through 18400 all numbers and I saw just 3 numbers - 18070, 18083 and 18085. Pretty ovbious they stop at 18085.
Also, the way the add numbers to CEAC is once a month, according to new cutoff. So, I am pretty sure the max number for Ukr (except small amount above that) is about 18085
 
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raevsky said:
For Egypt I showed a number of cases where those numbers were Egyptians, Cairo website states country of chargeability. I also know a couple of participants from Uz whose numbers were much higher than Uz's limit. However, they mentioned country of residence as Russia, not Uz.

Also, in your spreadsheet for Asia you single out ANK and ABD. It makes sense to add one column - ANK + ABD + YER combined. That is for two counties together - Iran and UEA combined. Then it will be uniform.
Click to expand...

OK, I wil do that as soon as possible.

For Europe, i suspected another country subject to limit at around 27K, Any idea what it could be?
 
raevsky said:
I did not run all of them. My purpose was to find max for Ukraine. I ran 16700 through 20050 every 10th number, and they stopped on 18070. Then I ran 18070 through 18400 all numbers and I saw just 3 numbers - 18070, 18083 and 18085. Pretty ovbious they stop at 18085.
Click to expand...

Raevsky, we were just chatting with a guy on the Ethiopian thread. He is chargeable to Ethiopia and has a CN of 50XXX. Given that last year they were cut at about 32k, we could assume they are limited around 30/35k this year - right? so then his number sounds like an outlier - right?

Oh - and while I'm thinking of it, the DV lottery wiki still uses the term circumcised for the special countries. Since that word has one meaning (and it is not to do with the DV lottery!), it might be good to change that next time you are editing. "Restricted" would be better.
 
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