I wish Sloner's theory will come true, but as you say Rayme, my head says no.
The fundamental "test" of Sloners theory is AF region. Sloner believes that the overall success rate (the ratio of selectees to final visas issued) from 2012 will be repeated this year. He cites software and improved anti fraud measure as the reasoning. Based on that he believes that AF will only get 17 to 19k visas and that as a consequence, every other region will benefit from that AF reduction (but mostly Europe). By the way, Sloner believes that the 17-19k is what the final demand will be from the 62k selectees - in other words AF region, and of course other regions, will get very close to their highest case numbers.
I on the other hand agree that AF region will have a smaller share this year, but only slightly (22 - 24k) and that will come from something less than the full supply of cases in AF region - meaning some high case numbers will be disappointed. I also think that the 140k selectee number is a mistake and that around 15 - 20% of those selectees will miss out.
Until now it isn't really possible to say categorically which theory is correct - we will only know in July/August and we will only have the official numbers a few months after DV2014 has finished. In May however we will see the selectee count - and that would be an important clue of what has happened because if Sloners' theory is correct they will select a large amount of selectees again (announcing 125k or perhaps even the 140k). I believe they will reduce that number to around 105K again (because the 2013 results will tell them that is enough).
Like I said - I would MUCH rather believe Sloners' theory - I just can't.
