Sloner axiom or Britsimon theory.... which due you think will be right at last.....
- Thread starter Rayme
- Start date
I will readjust my prediction for Asia a little bit, based on CEAC data.
1. Iranian numbers have max about 9000. Iran will use all or almost all of per country quota. Iranian cutoff will either stop right before 9000, or will pass that number (in that case it will most likely not have a cutoff limit different from Asia).
2. Nepalese numbers have max of about 10500. Nepal will most likely will use all it's per country quota. Nepalese final cutoff for the end of year will not likely to go above 10000 while Asian cutoff will rise higher than that.
3. The rest of Asia, dependning on the Asian quota, will have final cutoff between 13000 (if AS quota is 9.4K) and 19000 (if Asian quota is 10.6K)
Kayend
Active Member
So far we know that the max number for Nepal is 14k. Above that maybe only have 5% or so. So when you said Nepal max # of 10500, do you take account of their success rate?
I question the 14K number. How many Nepalese numbers above 10.5K do you know?
I assume the forms sending rate is or will be about the same as in DV-13. In DV-13 Nepal had 4370 winners and 3087 forms were sent to KCC (without Sloner effect). That is 70.6% rate. This year we have 6082 nepalese winners and 1683 forms were sent to KCC among the first 4325 numbers. Assuming the rate will be the same (and is already almost the same), 70.6%, about 2382 winners = 1683/70.6% are present in numbers up to 4325. In order to have 6082 winners total, Nepalese numbers should go up to 6082/2382*4325 = 11041. I think the sending rate is currently a little bit lower than 70.6%, but I expect it to go up to 70.6% till the end of the year when more forms are sent.That is why I think the max number for Nepal is about 10500, not about 11000.
Moreover, if we assume the number 1683 (the number of forms sent to KCC from Nepal) becomes much larger (when more people from Nepal wwith numbers up to 4325 send forms), the max that I estimate to 10500 could mainly go lower rather than higher, unless the sending rate is going to increase and be much higher than 70.6% that it had in DV-13.
Kayend
Active Member
More than 10 selectees are above 11k. It was reported by the forumers here. They even have a Facebook group for DV14 Nepalese. According to them 12k to 14k do have a lot of selectees from Nepal. So, it sound like your calculates are based on purely DV13 and CEAC data. I think Asia in DV14 is really difficult to predict accurately. Anyway, I really appreciate your prediction.
Birahi_kancha
Registered Users (C)
It is more than that Kayend. I have looked at the case numbers in the facebook page. I would say more than 30% case numbers reported in the facebook page are larger than 10K. It is really hard to tell when Nepal hits country limit. I hope there are many holes for Nepal from 5K - 10K. Otherwise so much case numbers above 10K does not make any sense.
Anyway next VB will certainly tell how the cases are distributed for Nepal.
Anyway next VB will certainly tell how the cases are distributed for Nepal.
Birahi_kancha
Registered Users (C)
Good analysis raevsky!!!.
Could you please advise what will be your prediction if about 20-30% case numbers from Nepal are greater than 10K?
Is there any chance there could be large holes for Nepalese numbers between 5K - 10K? If there are no such holes, then Nepalese cases can't be that many above 10k. What do you think?
Could you please advise what will be your prediction if about 20-30% case numbers from Nepal are greater than 10K?
Is there any chance there could be large holes for Nepalese numbers between 5K - 10K? If there are no such holes, then Nepalese cases can't be that many above 10k. What do you think?
Thanks for appretiating. I could see how Sloner effect could rise my estimates from 10.5K to 11.5K or even maybe to 12K for Nepal. However I would be very reluctant to believe max Nepalese number is higher than that
I do not believe into large holes. I think it happens like with other special countries. The distribution is uniform until certain number, and almost zero beyond that. I would rather not trust forum data (about numbers going up to 14K) than believe there could be holes in the middle.
Actually, one explanation is still possible. Last year a number of entries in ready status disappeared later. A possible explanation was those entries were without signatures or so. Anyway, illegitimate entries.
If we assume out of those 1683 entries we have so far for Nepal quite a few are illegitimate in the same way, and the number of real ones is smaller, like 1560 (and the rest 123 or so would be eliminated later), it could explain how Nepalese numbers would go up to 14K.
If we assume out of those 1683 entries we have so far for Nepal quite a few are illegitimate in the same way, and the number of real ones is smaller, like 1560 (and the rest 123 or so would be eliminated later), it could explain how Nepalese numbers would go up to 14K.
Kayend
Active Member
I don't get what you mean. During selection process, each primary selectee will assigned a case number regardless of derivatives. So, it is possible that Iran has less CN compare to Nepal even both countries have the same number of winners. For example, Iran has 4000 CN for 6k selectees and Nepal has 4500 CN for 6k selectees (based on the DV13 entries Iran has around 670k where as Nepal has 610k) and assuming 55% chances for Iran getting selected in the early number and 45% for Nepal. Based on this data, it is possible to have Iran max out or near max out at 9k CN and Nepal goes up to 14k. So, we will have a lot more holes after 9k and even more after 14k.
So far your prediction is assuming both countries max out around 9k to 11k range but based on the data we get from Nepalese is not the case for sure. Not only 1 or 2 selectees have mentioned their CN is above 11k, we have near 100 selectees and it is coming from facebook account with photo etc... I definitely believe the data is real. Anyway, I don't think this distribution changes will have any impact to your calculation because Nepal might reach their country limit at around 4k selectees.
One more interesting point is this, does KCC still schedule interviews to any country when the country has 3500+ interviews scheduled and the country limit still not reach yet? I think KCC might put them into special cut off in this situation. So Iran might put into special cut off in Jun cut off because by then it will have at least 3500+ selectees interviews scheduled.
Chicago2014
Active Member
Hello
It is the first time that i write on the forum but i read all your post and tried to understand each theory.
I've already exchange a lot with Rafik76
who has been so patient With me
As you, some day I have a lot of hope and some day I'm so worried not to get and interview.
I would like to ask raevsky, Simon, sloner, vladek and everyone who want to answer :
Will i get an interview with CN close to EU 39xxx?
Thank you so much for your answers
It is the first time that i write on the forum but i read all your post and tried to understand each theory.
I've already exchange a lot with Rafik76
who has been so patient With me As you, some day I have a lot of hope and some day I'm so worried not to get and interview.
I would like to ask raevsky, Simon, sloner, vladek and everyone who want to answer :
Will i get an interview with CN close to EU 39xxx?
Thank you so much for your answers
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Hello
It is the first time that i write on the forum but i read all your post and tried to understand each theory.
I've already exchange a lot with Rafik76
As you, some day I have a lot of hope and some day I'm so worried not to get and interview.
I would like to ask raevsky, Simon, sloner, vladek and everyone who want to answer :
Will i get an interview with CN close to EU 39xxx?
Thank you so much for your answers
I say yes you will get an interview.
I say no if it is really close to 39xxxHello
It is the first time that i write on the forum but i read all your post and tried to understand each theory.
I've already exchange a lot with Rafik76
As you, some day I have a lot of hope and some day I'm so worried not to get and interview.
I would like to ask raevsky, Simon, sloner, vladek and everyone who want to answer :
Will i get an interview with CN close to EU 39xxx?
Thank you so much for your answers
I do not have anything against the situation when Iranian and Nepalese max CNs are different from each other. What I do not like, however, is the situation when Nepalese numbers are distributed non-uniformely between 1 and max Nepalese number.
In DV-13 numbers for all special countries had uniform distribution between 1 and max CN.
Do you have the list of Nepalese numbers from the forum to look at (in order to verify uniformness)?
Chicago2014
Active Member
Thank You very much sloner, vladek et raevsky for your answer.
Raevsky What is the dead line for CN for You? 38000?
Raevsky What is the dead line for CN for You? 38000?