September visa bulletin released!!! Come here DV2014 people!!
- Thread starter Hopenewsun
- Start date
gideon1on1
Registered Users (C)
Need some help
..
..
Last edited by a moderator:
Britsimon
Super Moderator
In DV2013 that number would have been current (interviewed) in February. Some think this year might be faster so perhaps January - but we won't know until one or two more VBs. If you are in January that would be the VB that will be published in mid November., or failing that it will be the VB in mid December for the Feb slot.
They are not published for recent years. But their sum is 50000 (or maybe 55000 minus Nacara). In DV-11 9167 visas for AS were issued, and that is probably close to the quota for AS unless it has been changed since then.
I did not mean to be funny. I just think that regional quota will be exhausted earlier.
Kayend
Active Member
I thought AS allocated for 15% of the visa available from 50,000. So, it should be 7,500 but I also notice in DV-10 and DV-11 has more than 7,500.
I know quotas for AS for 1995 through 2002 without 2000
1995 6837
1996 7087
1997 7187
1998 7280
1999 7254
2001 6056
2002 5859
I'm surprised (and not in a good way) that the cutoffs are lower than last year's even though we have many more selectees this year!!
Also, on 1NL, they told us 125,000 were selected, but in the bulletin, they say "140,660 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa." Does this mean they made a second round of notifications??? I'm totally confused now. Where do the extra 15,660 applicants come from, if not for a second group that were notified after the rest of us.
Also, on 1NL, they told us 125,000 were selected, but in the bulletin, they say "140,660 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa." Does this mean they made a second round of notifications??? I'm totally confused now. Where do the extra 15,660 applicants come from, if not for a second group that were notified after the rest of us.
Last year both documents (1NL listing 100,000 and the list with 105625 total) appeared simultaneously.
What I think is 100,000 is a liaison version of 105,625.
And 125,000 is a liaison version of 140,659.
In some prior years 1nl also contained 100,000 but the other document contained a number like 86000 which is less than that. Negative additional selection is not possible, however.
Liaison version means a version after some manipulation, like rounding or something like that.
For instance, they could round to the nearest 25000 under the number or something like that.
Hopenewsun
Registered Users (C)
If this as simple as u mentioned it, Asia would have not continued getting current till all current in august.... i think everybody is going to get a chance for interview... This has been the case for all the previous years
Not for all previous years. Just for several recent years. Where they did not have so many winners.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
This has actually only been the case since 2006 (I posted the data in another thread, here it is again):
in 2003 fiscal year, Africa, Asia and EU all ended the FY at a cut-off rather than current:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_2984.html
For 2004 only Oceania and SA were current by year end (not NA as in 2003)
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1466.html
2005 - only Oceania current at year end:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_2616.html
From 2006 onwards all regions current at year end, except Africa still cut-off in 2008 (and exception of certain countries with per-country limits in some of the other years).
I am sorry, but britsimon just made my morning. This is very funny. exactly what i needed to get through a crazy morning.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I am sorry, but britsimon just made my morning. This is very funny. exactly what i needed to get through a crazy morning.
I can't claim credit - I'm pretty sure I heard it somewhere....
Sloner
Active Member
Here's my calculation by region. According to this theory, the DV2014 was launched in the software that was used in July 2011 to DV12. Raevskii, ready? Here we go -
Africa - 50,000 winnings 13582 visas were issued. Count how many visas will be issued in 2014, 61943 * 13582/50000 = 16826 visas.
Europe - wins on 31001 13093 visas were issued. We believe 46588 * 13093/31001 = 19676 visa.
Asia - to 15002 wins 6481 visas were issued. We believe 23270 * 6481/15002 = 10052 visa.
I wondered where he got Oceania and South America a large number of winners. It turns out to be completed by the end of the global quota.
Oceania - wins for 2001 issued 562 visas. We think 4215 * 562/2001 = 1,183 visas.
South America, for 2002 wins were issued 742 visas. We think 4620 * 742/2002 = 1,712 visas.
We summarize: 16826 +19676 +10052 +1183 +1712 +10 = 49459. It all fits.
Large rooms, sleep well, gets to your turn.
Africa - 50,000 winnings 13582 visas were issued. Count how many visas will be issued in 2014, 61943 * 13582/50000 = 16826 visas.
Europe - wins on 31001 13093 visas were issued. We believe 46588 * 13093/31001 = 19676 visa.
Asia - to 15002 wins 6481 visas were issued. We believe 23270 * 6481/15002 = 10052 visa.
I wondered where he got Oceania and South America a large number of winners. It turns out to be completed by the end of the global quota.
Oceania - wins for 2001 issued 562 visas. We think 4215 * 562/2001 = 1,183 visas.
South America, for 2002 wins were issued 742 visas. We think 4620 * 742/2002 = 1,712 visas.
We summarize: 16826 +19676 +10052 +1183 +1712 +10 = 49459. It all fits.
Large rooms, sleep well, gets to your turn.
ceskhermina
Member
Affidavit of Support Review (only when reviewed domestically)88$ every person that have an affidavit of support will pay this fee?
Unfortunately, that only works for cases like DV-12 (when people did not know they won).Here's my calculation by region. According to this theory, the DV2014 was launched in the software that was used in July 2011 to DV12. Raevskii, ready? Here we go -
Africa - 50,000 winnings 13582 visas were issued. Count how many visas will be issued in 2014, 61943 * 13582/50000 = 16826 visas.
Europe - wins on 31001 13093 visas were issued. We believe 46588 * 13093/31001 = 19676 visa.
Asia - to 15002 wins 6481 visas were issued. We believe 23270 * 6481/15002 = 10052 visa.
I wondered where he got Oceania and South America a large number of winners. It turns out to be completed by the end of the global quota.
Oceania - wins for 2001 issued 562 visas. We think 4215 * 562/2001 = 1,183 visas.
South America, for 2002 wins were issued 742 visas. We think 4620 * 742/2002 = 1,712 visas.
We summarize: 16826 +19676 +10052 +1183 +1712 +10 = 49459. It all fits.
Large rooms, sleep well, gets to your turn.
Applying your logic backwards to DV-11
AF 51,004 winners, visas proposed 51004 * 13582/50000 = 13855 (real number in DV-11 was 24015)
AS 14,999 winners, 14999 * 6481/15002 = 6480 (real number was 6481)
EU 30,999 winners 30999 * 13093/31001 = 13092 (real number was 16378)
OC 1,600 winners 1,600 * 562/2001 = 449 (real number was 578)
SA 2,001 winners 2001 * 742/2002 = 742 (real number was 978)
Total 34618 (real number was 51116).
Sloner
Active Member
Not convinced, such speculation can be applied to all the years. I need the numbers. You get them before I ever asked for. I gave you the basic convincing calculations. They are based on official statistics. 32000 forgotten
do not tell me."Kenneth White, an immigration attorney in Los Angeles, contacted the U.S. State Department in mid-May with a formal request to allow 22316 win to keep their winnings and a request for the draw for the remaining seats. Then he sued. The trial ended on 14 July, he was losing.
Ira Kurzban of the company [3] filed an appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, July 3, 2012 which affirmed the decision of the district court." http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%E8...E0%F6%E8%EE%ED%ED%E0%FF_%EB%EE%F2%E5%F0%E5%FF
It is quite possible they have left these places specifically.So then caught 45ххх room.
Last edited by a moderator:
Exactly. If you repeat your calculations to any year (except 2012), you will get an extremely low, absolutely unrealistic number of visas per year. This type of calculation only works in case of a disaster year, like 2012. So DOS produced an excessive amount of winners, possibly just in case of a disaster.
Last edited by a moderator: