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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

Hey Britsimon another silly theory what if they still tuning the numbers but someone make upcoming vb link visible by mistake :)
 
connectedspace said:
Not sure I follow - if there's no Nigeria, surely there are more to spread around over the rest of the world?
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I'm talking about explaining the difference between 140k and 125k. In DV2014 Nigeria got 6k selectees plus 7 or 8 other countries got limited to 6k. In 2015 Nigeria is gone (6k less selectees) and the countries previously limited to 6k are now limited to 5k (so 7k or 8k less selectees). So - those few countries acount for 13k/14k or the 15k difference in selectees. So actually the 125k in 2015 isn't quite as healthy as it first appears. Furthermore, this year seems to be demonstrating that 100k (ish) is about what they need rough guess) - so DV2015 will see some sadness for high CNs as we are seeing this year.
 
Britsimon said:
I go back back to the 2012 fiasco. They calculated (as you did) that they would get very poor response. That wasn't correct as we now know - but it was too late - they had already pulled the trigger. And guess what. They have screwed up 2015 the same way also (since the 5k country selection cutoff and no Nigeria accounts for all the difference between 125 and 140. Bloody nightmare.
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But there are 2 tour. Why they were insured in 2013. In 2014 - no. Number of winners has been increased to 30,000. This is a huge figure.
I think this was done deliberately to harm win for trial.
2*2=4 It is taught in the elementary grades.
 
Slikk said:
Hey Britsimon another silly theory what if they still tuning the numbers but someone make upcoming vb link visible by mistake :)
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Not so silly. The last few months we have seen blatant mistakes on the number quoted by KCC over the phone AND mistakes in the published VB. In this case, I think the pressure to publish the VB has caused them to publish too soon.
 
Britsimon said:
Not so silly. The last few months we have seen blatant mistakes on the number quoted by KCC over the phone AND mistakes in the published VB. In this case, I think the pressure to publish the VB has caused them to publish too soon.
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Last year, VB published July 8, this year - July 8. All according to plan.
 
Sloner said:
But there are 2 tour. Why they were insured in 2013. In 2014 - no. Number of winners has been increased to 30,000. This is a huge figure.
I think this was done deliberately to harm win for trial.
2*2=4 It is taught in the elementary grades.
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We have discussed this before Sloner. When they decided the number for DV2014 the latest completed year they had was 2012. For DV2015 they had 2013 numbers, but still went to high - possibly they didn't figure out the car wreck that we could see was happening.
 
Yeah I am aware of pressure but still you always got numbers before, and they were clear today that we need to wait and then boom disaster...Weird isn't it?
Britsimon said:
Not so silly. The last few months we have seen blatant mistakes on the number quoted by KCC over the phone AND mistakes in the published VB. In this case, I think the pressure to publish the VB has caused them to publish too soon.
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Britsimon said:
We have discussed this before Sloner. When they decided the number for DV2014 the latest completed year they had was 2012. For DV2015 they had 2013 numbers, but still went to high - possibly they didn't figure out the car wreck that we could see was happening.
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In 2012 were gaps in the numbering. They knew that perfectly well. Needed to fill these gaps.
In 2012, they chose not to 100,000, and 35000 * 100000/51000 = 68627. Statistics have been a bluff, not to shame again. There was little time for error correction.
 
Britsimon said:
I'm talking about explaining the difference between 140k and 125k. In DV2014 Nigeria got 6k selectees plus 7 or 8 other countries got limited to 6k. In 2015 Nigeria is gone (6k less selectees) and the countries previously limited to 6k are now limited to 5k (so 7k or 8k less selectees). So - those few countries acount for 13k/14k or the 15k difference in selectees. So actually the 125k in 2015 isn't quite as healthy as it first appears. Furthermore, this year seems to be demonstrating that 100k (ish) is about what they need rough guess) - so DV2015 will see some sadness for high CNs as we are seeing this year.
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I understand that the algorithm is the same, but how could having fewer selectees be anything but positive for the remainder? Obviously previous years' algorithms were better, but let's consider an OC person with CN 2000 for DV2015. Would they have any reason to be more hopeful than someone with the same CN in 2014?
 
I am within 150 places for OC so my question is is there really any chance that the September numbers might be adjusted or is all hope gone?
 
Sloner said:
Simon, where numbers above 10534. VB in January was 16,500.
http://greencard.by/upload/iblock/ca2/DV Appt Jan 2012.pdf
http://travel.state.gov/content/vis...etin/2012/visa-bulletin-for-january-2012.html
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Not sure what your point is.

Here is a tip. When you want to make a point, try actually typing the point on the keyboard as opposed to just thinking it. I know you have a secret mancrush on me and think I am a superhero - but I actually do not have mind reading capabilities and need to read what you are trying to say in order to respond....
 
Britsimon said:
Not sure what your point is.

Here is a tip. When you want to make a point, try actually typing the point on the keyboard as opposed to just thinking it. I know you have a secret mancrush on me and think I am a superhero - but I actually do not have mind reading capabilities and need to read what you are trying to say in order to respond....
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After CN 10534 in 2012 in Europe, very few numbers. But before that the number density is large. There are gaps. Is that clear?
 
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