September 2020 Visa Bulletin

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#22
Yup! Also, it would make sense if the number of selectees is higher because KCC anticipated that some selectees may pass from COVID-19.
You guys are all reading way too much into the decision to draw more selectees. Trump, pandemic, Covid deaths, elections, ban, passport requirements means applicants are different quality, yada yada, nothing like that is factored in. It is simply “too few proceeded last year so we draw more this year” without any attempt to analyze factors involved. We’ve seen it before, both ways.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#23
You guys are all reading way too much into the decision to draw more selectees. Trump, pandemic, Covid deaths, elections, ban, passport requirements means applicants are different quality, yada yada, nothing like that is factored in. It is simply “too few proceeded last year so we draw more this year” without any attempt to analyze factors involved. We’ve seen it before, both ways.
Exactly right. Its a cycle. A couple of years one way, then a couple the other way.
 

onero

New Member
#24
I know no one knows exactly but, I want to know your opinion:

Why did KCC not start with a relatively high cut of CN (eg 8k or 10 k) in the VB as other than AoS, no one can actually submit documents? I assume there is not much AoS overall.

Some may say "Wait and see" :) ok I know the secret code, but what is your predictions for the rest of VBs?
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#25
I know no one knows exactly but, I want to know your opinion:

Why did KCC not start with a relatively high cut of CN (eg 8k or 10 k) in the VB as other than AoS, no one can actually submit documents? I assume there is not much AoS overall.
Discussed before. Exactly, not many aos, so speeding up a few hundred people (very early on and not needed at all) at the expense of suddenly putting on the brakes/retrogressing in January to affect & disrupt the planning of many thousands of others and the embassies makes no logistical sense.
 

Sm1smom

Super Moderator
#26
I know no one knows exactly but, I want to know your opinion:

Why did KCC not start with a relatively high cut of CN (eg 8k or 10 k) in the VB as other than AoS, no one can actually submit documents? I assume there is not much AoS overall.

Some may say "Wait and see" :) ok I know the secret code, but what is your predictions for the rest of VBs?
Question 1: see Susie’s accurate response above.
Question 2: wait and see :)
 
#27
Why did KCC not start with a relatively high cut of CN (eg 8k or 10 k) in the VB as other than AoS, no one can actually submit documents?
Others have already answered your question. The real question is what's going to happen next month - it's feasible they will NOT progress the numbers on the grounds that doing so will create a backlog come January, just like it would if they had jumped them to start with.

It's very possible we'll be stuck on the current numbers until February.
 

Aidyn

Well-Known Member
#28
Others have already answered your question. The real question is what's going to happen next month - it's feasible they will NOT progress the numbers on the grounds that doing so will create a backlog come January, just like it would if they had jumped them to start with.

It's very possible we'll be stuck on the current numbers until February.
It's highly unlikely they will leave the numbers untouched until next year - There are still people who are eligible to process outside of the ban so for this reason alone i expect numbers to increase each month. It may not be a big jump but some small movement is likely
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#29
Others have already answered your question. The real question is what's going to happen next month - it's feasible they will NOT progress the numbers on the grounds that doing so will create a backlog come January, just like it would if they had jumped them to start with.

It's very possible we'll be stuck on the current numbers until February.
It's highly unlikely they will leave the numbers untouched until next year - There are still people who are eligible to process outside of the ban so for this reason alone i expect numbers to increase each month. It may not be a big jump but some small movement is likely
for sure, it’s going to be interesting to see how they deal with this. It’s certainly the case that if they progress them at a “normal” rate, whatever that is, they will end up with 4 months’ worth of CP selectees to process in January*. At the same time it’s hard to see them not doing anything with the numbers with practically no one interviewing. I’m not even sure how much thought is going into this, because what they will end up having to do (assuming the ban is not renewed) is put a year’s worth of consular interviews into 9 months. Now that’s probably not going to be a big problem at some embassies (ignoring the fact that hundreds of thousands of other visas will be affected by a backlog too) but it will be at others. As a wild speculation, one way of dealing with this would be to have more individual country cut offs than the couple/few we usually see.

*i also wonder how they will schedule interviews. They technically won’t know until the end of December whether or not the ban will be extended, but one assumes that they will send out notices as usual during November for January interviews, as the ban is supposed to be over by then, and not wait for confirmation at the end of December. This of course is not just an issue for KCC/DV, but also for NVC and all the currently banned family and employment visas.
 
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