OK guys: are you ready for some real flights of fancy? (It is amazing what one can do when one is procrastinating. . . ).
I was sure that somewhere there would be monthly USCIS stats on number of applications of various kinds, etc. They are well hidden, but I finally found a monthly USCIS bulletin giving such data (on USCIS web site, go to "about USCIS", then to "Reports and Studies" and then somewhere in the small print of the menu you'll see "Monthly Statistical Reports on [N-400 Applications]".
I have taken all the data available from there and created a new spreadsheet on another tab in my spreadsheet called N400 Flow. Here we can see the number of fresh N-400s each month, the number of approvals and rejections, and the total backlog. There are some mysteries. First of all, the flow numbers don't align exactly with the stock (e.g. if there were 100 new applications in a month and 80 decisions, then the outstanding backlog does not necessarily increase by 20 cases). Secondly, as each monthly report compares current data to the year-ago month we have two views of some months and there are small discrepancies between the two views of any such month. Finally, I can't reconcile these data with the USCIS's repeated statement that they received 460k N-400s in July 2007.
With all the caveats implied in the above, let's look at what information we can glean:
1. As I suspected, the number of fresh N-400s filed drops after July '07, but perhaps not quite as fast as I had thought. This should mean that processing will speed up as we get through the July '07 bulge.
2. To look at this more closely, I did a quick estimate of the number of working days in each month and then divided the number of decisions by them to get an idea of the average number of decisions each day. We can see that the USCIS has in fact ramped up its efforts but has been overwhelmed by the sheer volumes of new N-400s. In recent months, over 4000 decisions have been made every day.
3. I used this to to try to project future processing speeds and if we assume 4000 decisions per working day, then my best estimates are as follows:
In July '08: PDs up to August 13th 2007 [adamsavich]
In Aug '08: PDs up to September 24th 2007 [Senga]
In Sep '08: PDs up to October 25th 2007 [HomerSimp, aquantum123, popeyesailor]
In Oct '08: PDs up to December 31st 2007 [chuang2830 and wife, anibala2001, and jelly213]
Please recognize that these are incredibly rough estimates based on uncertain assumptions, and above all that they reflect US-wide data, not Seattle DO specific data. Of course individual cases will differ, too.
4. On the point of SEA vs US data, it might not be unreasonable to think that they will roughly track one another. In early April the USCIS had a press release with projected processing times for 70 DOs at the end of September 2008. (Not a 100% clear what they meant by that). Seattle DO is smack-dab in the middle of the range of projected processing times. Take a look at the third tab on my spreadsheet for fun. We would all have been better off if we had lived in Helena MT!
5. Finally, I would note that if the FBI meets the name check targets agreed earlier in the year and my assumptions above hold up, then Flying Turk and Anxious1 should be ready for ILs by the end of November 2008 and presumably have IDs in December.
Best regards to all,
--J--
