Retrogression .. reality check

S

saras76

Banned
Retrogression .. reality check for Indians

Guys and Gals,

Now that the bad news has settled in its time to figure out exactly where each of us stands and figure out our options. I have come up with the following assesment based on a conservative approach towards PD date progress for Indian EB3 applicants. I have also not considered the possibility of Congress stepping in and increasing the EB3 visa quota. These thoughts are based on things as they stand today without any change in the foreseeable future.

From the look of things, EB3 (India) retro dates are not going to move much till atleast early 06. Even if the dates start moving in early 06, none of us should expect rapid movements. I am stating this based on what I have read at various sites. Broadly speaking I think most of us Indian EB3s can be split in to the following groups.

1. EB3 with PD before cutoff of Jan 98 - I am almost certain that there are very few if any. These people should expect a speedy approval. Its about time :)

2. EB3 with PD between 98-2000 - I would be surprised if there are to many people with 98-2000 PDs still waiting. These people can realistically expect some good news in early 06. Even if the dates start moving, they will probably not cross 2000 until atleast the middle of 06. So these people can realistically expect approval early or mid 06. Till then keep renewing your APs and EADs or keep using the H1 visa if it hasn't expired yet. This is the best case scenario. The dates might only move by months in early 06 and the whole year may have gone before 2000 is reached. That is the worst case scenario.

3. EB3 with with PD of 2001 - Although I am not completely sure, I think there are a lot of people with 2001 PDs still waiting on approvals. From the look of things I forsee nothing for us (my PD is Aug 01) till late 06 to early 07. We have to continue to apply for EADs and APs I guess. This again is the best case scenario at this point. The dates may actually reach 01 in early to mid 07. Who knows?

4. EB3 with PD of 2002 - Might be similar to 01 or a little worse. Everything will depend on exactly how many 01 cases are pending. The dates may move slowly through 01. Late 07 seems realistic for 02s.

5. EB3 with PDs beyond 2002 - There is really no telling at this point but any approval before late 07 or early 08 seems unlikely at this point.

6. For all those that have not applied for their 485s, there will be a wait of atleast 2-3 years if not more to just apply for 485. It is important for these people to extend their H1s. Most of these people may be able to extend their H1 by as much as 3 years at one go because the Yates Memo has made some concession for people affected by retrogression.

I know the above thougts sound depressing but lets face reality and try to figure out ways to improve our situation. Let me stress again that the above are WORST CASE scenarios. Do not take my thoughts literally. I am just trying to think of the worst so we can prepare. If the worst doesn't happen we will still be okay but if does then we will be ready to face the hardships. Thats my thinking.

I am hoping that all of the above is wrong and that by some miracle the PD dates will start to move fast but right now we have to prepare for the worst case scenario. The most important thing during these tough times is to stick together, share information and help eachother out. If we do that we will all get through this.

regards,

saras76
 
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Saras,

If TX were well organized, I would agree with you, but who knows how those guys work and what they are doing.
 
True

moroni said:
Saras,

If TX were well organized, I would agree with you, but who knows how those guys work and what they are doing.
Click to expand...

moroni,

You are right. TSC is one of the worst centers and they are capable of anything. I have tried to be optimistic with my assessment but we all know that things could turn out to be a lot worse. There is also a slight chance that things may improve. Lets see what happens ..

saras
 
mine PD is march 2001 eb3 India
it all depends on TEXAS center..

this year visa numbers were available but texas was slow..
when texas has crossed my 485 dates (oct 2003) visa numbers are not available.

life should go on ..

Now a days I am trying to be happy with small small things like
redsox is ahead of yankees ( baseball)
new england patriots won first game (football)
 
Good attitude

visa_chakkar said:
mine PD is march 2001 eb3 India
it all depends on TEXAS center..

this year visa numbers were available but texas was slow..
when texas has crossed my 485 dates (oct 2003) visa numbers are not available.

life should go on ..

Now a days I am trying to be happy with small small things like
redsox is ahead of yankees ( baseball)
new england patriots won first game (football)
Click to expand...

visa_chakkar,

Keeping oneself occupied and enjoying the simple pleasures of life is defenitely one way of coping with this news. Although its hard, I am trying to do the same.

regards,

saras
 
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Those dates are bogus and I'll tell you why.

Up until a week ago EB2 and EB1 were still current, and this is after many visa numbers had been used up for the fiscal year 05 thus leaving fewer and fewer as we approach October. Going into October those categories that are current get a fresh new allotment of visa numbers, so they would have MORE available than before, not less.

There's no way that in August/September they could have received such a flood of old applications that it would suddenly make India's EB2 go from current all the way back to 1999. If they had so many waiting, EB2 could not have continued to be current throughout FY05.

They set the dates at prehistoric levels so they can put a stop to all new I-485 filings. With no new filings coming in, they'll have more time to clean up the few ancient cases that are rotting on their desks and move forward in an orderly fashion with the others. During Oct-Dec 05 they won't change the published priority dates, but they will be sending out approvals many of which are for cases with priority dates later than the published values.
 
I hope you are right ...

Jackolantern said:
Those dates are bogus and I'll tell you why.

Up until a week ago EB2 and EB1 were still current, and this is after many visa numbers had been used up for the fiscal year 05 thus leaving fewer and fewer as we approach October. Going into October those categories that are current get a fresh new allotment of visa numbers, so they would have MORE available than before, not less.

There's no way that in August/September they could have received such a flood of old applications that it would suddenly make India's EB2 go from current all the way back to 1999. If they had so many waiting, EB2 could not have continued to be current throughout FY05.

They set the dates at prehistoric levels so they can put a stop to all new I-485 filings. With no new filings coming in, they'll have more time to clean up the few ancient cases that are rotting on their desks and move forward in an orderly fashion with the others. During Oct-Dec 05 they won't change the published priority dates, but they will be sending out approvals many of which are for cases with priority dates later than the published values.
Click to expand...

You make a valid point. As I always say, anything is possible with the USCIS. Lets hope you are right.

regards,

saras
 
You are right..dates at prehistoric levels so they can put a stop to all new I-485 fi

It looks so..they set PD at prehistoric levels so they can put a stop to all new I-485 filings. they won't change the published priority dates and with no new I 485 filings coming in, and will be sending out GC approvals many of which are for cases with priority dates later than the published PD. Mean while they will look for inreasing the Visa # by passing any Bill to bring PD close enough to file I 485 that they can manage!!

Hope this is the trick we will see for next one year or so...!!

Jackolantern said:
Those dates are bogus and I'll tell you why.

They set the dates at prehistoric levels so they can put a stop to all new I-485 filings. With no new filings coming in, they'll have more time to clean up the few ancient cases that are rotting on their desks and move forward in an orderly fashion with the others. During Oct-Dec 05 they won't change the published priority dates, but they will be sending out approvals many of which are for cases with priority dates later than the published values.
Click to expand...
 
Jackolantern said:
Those dates are bogus and I'll tell you why.

Up until a week ago EB2 and EB1 were still current, and this is after many visa numbers had been used up for the fiscal year 05 thus leaving fewer and fewer as we approach October. Going into October those categories that are current get a fresh new allotment of visa numbers, so they would have MORE available than before, not less.

There's no way that in August/September they could have received such a flood of old applications that it would suddenly make India's EB2 go from current all the way back to 1999. If they had so many waiting, EB2 could not have continued to be current throughout FY05.

They set the dates at prehistoric levels so they can put a stop to all new I-485 filings. With no new filings coming in, they'll have more time to clean up the few ancient cases that are rotting on their desks and move forward in an orderly fashion with the others. During Oct-Dec 05 they won't change the published priority dates, but they will be sending out approvals many of which are for cases with priority dates later than the published values.
Click to expand...


Jackolantern,

You have a valid point. I wish they will atleast start approving green cards for those who have already applied and waiting in the queue for a long period.
Like others, I also had very hope from October 2005 visa bulletine but it has changed my hope by 180 degree. They should atleast start clearing out existing I485 cases based on FIFO order. I don't know why Texas and other service centers update I485 date if everything is based on labor priority date? They should stop updating that date. Anyway, there is no harm to keep hope.

Eb3 India Sept. 2002,
I140/I485 Oct. 8 , 2004
I140 approved = Feb. 18, 2005
I485 approved date == ???????? LUD changed May4, 2005 after FP, Lud changed July 1, 2005, July 5,2005.
FP = May3, 2005 (code 3)
EAD1 RD = Oct. 8,2004 Approved November 10,2004
AP1 RD = Oct. 8,2004 Approved November 16,2004
EAD2 RD = Sep. 1,2005 Approved September 8,2005
AP2 RD = Sep. 1,2005 Approved September 9,2005
 
I also forgot to mention ... another reason why they made the priority dates become artificially prehistoric is to stop the substitute labor certs from filing I-485 until labor substitution is officially banned.
 
with priority dates only 2 things possible

1. They do not want immigration from just 1-2(ind/chin/phi) countries but want other countries should get fair chance

If this is true then ind/china eb3/eb2 should wait for at least 1 year to see some big change in PD.

2. Just want to focus on pending 485 not any new one.

my guess is number 2 means not to worry, I am not saying because my PD is mar 2001 but it will be fair for everybody as centers will process 485's first come first basis.There will be some waiting time for 2003/2004 filers.

still I do not understand one thing ... USA needs immigarted technology workers or not ??
if not stop H1 and 485 ..so no confusion let people go back to their own country.

if they want workers then need to increase visa numbers.

after baby boomer retirement who will pay Socail security. workers like us.
 
Not a bad idea to study the visa number availability trends for previous years. 1995-2001. I think there was widespread retrogression for all categories and one can see fluctuations in visa number cut off dates from one month to another by almost a year.

I agree with your analysis for (1). I dont think we have a lot of people with cut off dates prior to April 2001. Remember the amnesty where there was a flood of labor applications around that time. So I think we will see a cut-off date of 04/2001 for a long time in 2006 and may be 2007. And most of these beneficiaries will be from CSC.





saras76 said:
Guys and Gals,

Now that the bad news has settled in its time to figure out exactly where each of us stands and figure out our options. I have come up with the following assesment based on a conservative approach towards PD date progress for Indian EB3 applicants. I have also not considered the possibility of Congress stepping in and increasing the EB3 visa quota. These thoughts are based on things as they stand today without any change in the foreseeable future.

From the look of things, EB3 (India) retro dates are not going to move much till atleast early 06. Even if the dates start moving in early 06, none of us should expect rapid movements. I am stating this based on what I have read at various sites. Broadly speaking I think most of us Indian EB3s can be split in to the following groups.

1. EB3 with PD before cutoff of Jan 98 - I am almost certain that there are very few if any. These people should expect a speedy approval. Its about time :)

2. EB3 with PD between 98-2000 - I would be surprised if there are to many people with 98-2000 PDs still waiting. These people can realistically expect some good news in early 06. Even if the dates start moving, they will probably not cross 2000 until atleast the middle of 06. So these people can realistically expect approval early or mid 06. Till then keep renewing your APs and EADs or keep using the H1 visa if it hasn't expired yet. This is the best case scenario. The dates might only move by months in early 06 and the whole year may have gone before 2000 is reached. That is the worst case scenario.

3. EB3 with with PD of 2001 - Although I am not completely sure, I think there are a lot of people with 2001 PDs still waiting on approvals. From the look of things I forsee nothing for us (my PD is Aug 01) till late 06 to early 07. We have to continue to apply for EADs and APs I guess. This again is the best case scenario at this point. The dates may actually reach 01 in early to mid 07. Who knows?

4. EB3 with PD of 2002 - Might be similar to 01 or a little worse. Everything will depend on exactly how many 01 cases are pending. The dates may move slowly through 01. Late 07 seems realistic for 02s.

5. EB3 with PDs beyond 2002 - There is really no telling at this point but any approval before late 07 or early 08 seems unlikely at this point.

6. For all those that have not applied for their 485s, there will be a wait of atleast 2-3 years if not more to just apply for 485. It is important for these people to extend their H1s. Most of these people may be able to extend their H1 by as much as 3 years at one go because the Yates Memo has made some concession for people affected by retrogression.

I know the above thougts sound depressing but lets face reality and try to figure out ways to improve our situation. Let me stress again that the above are WORST CASE scenarios. Do not take my thoughts literally. I am just trying to think of the worst so we can prepare. If the worst doesn't happen we will still be okay but if does then we will be ready to face the hardships. Thats my thinking.

I am hoping that all of the above is wrong and that by some miracle the PD dates will start to move fast but right now we have to prepare for the worst case scenario. The most important thing during these tough times is to stick together, share information and help eachother out. If we do that we will all get through this.

regards,

saras76
Click to expand...
 
April 01 continues to haunt me ...

mahap001 said:
Not a bad idea to study the visa number availability trends for previous years. 1995-2001. I think there was widespread retrogression for all categories and one can see fluctuations in visa number cut off dates from one month to another by almost a year.

I agree with your analysis for (1). I dont think we have a lot of people with cut off dates prior to April 2001. Remember the amnesty where there was a flood of labor applications around that time. So I think we will see a cut-off date of 04/2001 for a long time in 2006 and may be 2007. And most of these beneficiaries will be from CSC.
Click to expand...

mahap001,

I was one of the unlucky filers whose LC was filed in 01. My app got stuck in the 01 amnesty and the whole damn process took about 2 years to get approved. Once the labor was approved I figured that the damage had been done and I had managed to get through it with an approval. I never imagined that it would come back to haunt me in this way. Now its the 01 amnesty that is leading to a delay in my 485 adjucation. Its funny how one event can lead to a series of unfortunate events :)

On a more positive note, most of the TSC filers that had gotten their labor app stuck in the 01 amnesty have already gotten their 485 approvals. They were all approved with me in early 04 and last year TSC approved almost 90% of 04 filers. I got left behind because of a wrong TRX to Miami. Thats another sad story. The same may have happened at CSC. If this turns out to be true then 01 should not be as long as you have predicted. It may take time for the PD cutoff to get through 01 but it may not be as long as we are fearing.

I think the main reason for the PDs being rolled back is the following -

1. The PERM process speeding up labor processing coupled with super fast I-140 processing has lead to tons of new applicants with approved 140s waiting to file 485s. This has scared the USCIS and they have thus prevented these people from filing 485s. Most of these people must have PDs from 02 and 03. That is my guess.

2. Last year the CSC and VSC ate up an unfair number of visa numbers because they were able to speed up their processing. TSC and NSC applicants got screwed in the process. CSC and VSC applicants with much later PDs than TSC and NSC applicants got approved. This was totally unfair but thats what happened. I think the USCIS realized that thousands of TSC and NSC applicants with PDs in 00-01 are still pending while CSC and VSC are moving through more recent PD cases. This retro has put an end to that.

What can be said is that the USCIS is trying to get a handle on things. In the long run these policies will help but in the shortrun its going to be hell for us.

I was just thinking that somehow I have managed to catch almost every bad break that can be caught in this process. Its gotten to a point where I just expect worse things to happen. :)

regards,

saras76
 
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Immigration Reforms

hypothetically, what will happen if the immiration reform bills pass in the next 2 years where the 140K limit goes up to 290K for example.

DOS will then be forced to move the PD to almost current? How is USCIS going to manage the backlog then ? shit is going to hit the fan some day or the other. retrogressing dates to manage backlog is not the answer...improving your inefficient process is the answer.
 
True ..

nishokie said:
hypothetically, what will happen if the immiration reform bills pass in the next 2 years where the 140K limit goes up to 290K for example.

DOS will then be forced to move the PD to almost current? How is USCIS going to manage the backlog then ? shit is going to hit the fan some day or the other. retrogressing dates to manage backlog is not the answer...improving your inefficient process is the answer.
Click to expand...

nishokie,

The USCIS, DOL and DOS only believe in band aid solutions. Everyone knows that the system needs to be overhauled but no one really cares for immigrants so nothing will be done. I personally think that they do not want this system to be very efficient. It is a known fact that the US wants to keep a tight grip on the number of immigrants that gain permanent residence here. Sticking with this system and not fixing the problems is a good way to weed out a lot of immigrants. They cannot deport us without a reason so they make sure that the system remains ineffective. It is a creative way of getting rid of immigrants and letting the US economy exploit valued technical workers. But the bottom line is that we chose to be here and should realize that this is how we are going to be treated till we get our GCs. Its good to accept it and try to find ways to better our own personal situation the best we can.

regards,

saras
 
Nice post and very good analysis saras. Let me present my angle:

USCIS is an ill-managed group of people. In order to get under 6 months processing time, by September 2006, it accelerated by adjudicating in random order. See the figures in VSC and CSC, both these aproved high volume in a span of 6-8 months, exhausting te quota.

Secondly, due to concurrent filing(after July 2002), count of 485 got messed up. As a result people who filed later got aproved and people who were in queue for long are still waiting.

Thirdly, USCIS is (perhaps) keeping a count of how many LCs are still in backlog reduction center and will come for 140 and 485. They are being cautious for those cases(reasonable).

Now how are the dates going to move?

It will be decided mainly by backlog reduction center's output. As soon as BRCs complete a phase(read a year), dates will move within a month. And belv me there are cases of 1999 in BRC (CT cases for example). Number is small and most of those cases will not be used for 140 filing either. (People have already got GC thru other means of left US long time back).

Some companies are out of business, but their cases are still with BRC. Seems BRC is not sending 45 day letter to everyone, so obviously there will be a gap in count for those cases too. At the earliest those cases can be identified when the lot is opened and number can be corrected.

The reason why I have a conviction on the issue is that - USCIS was trying to stop subsitution and also filing of 140 is 45 days or so. This was to reduce chance of error in counting.

How will BRC work? Well initially a bit slowly - clear all pre 2001 cases - which will not be too many in number and then a little pace with 2002 cases and then into 2003 with slower speed. All this will roughly take another 6-9 months or so. Visa numbers will be exhausted for the year by then. And then it will be ordered backlog(right now you will see people who filed after you got his/her GC and you are in queue). At this point only, any corrective measure by congress can work for the community(like passing new bill and increase quota etc). Whatever you do, however hard you try - it will not make any difference. Situation is worse for people who are struck in name check - even if they are from non-backlogged countries, they will still keep waiting.

What should you do? Do not belv me when I say - whatever you do, however hard you try - it will not make any difference. Even though logic says that, remember JFKs famous words: One man can make the difference and every man should try!
 
saras76 said:
mahap001,

2. Last year the CSC and VSC ate up an unfair number of visa numbers because they were able to speed up their processing. TSC and NSC applicants got screwed in the process. CSC and VSC applicants with much later PDs than TSC and NSC applicants got approved. This was totally unfair but thats what happened. I think the USCIS realized that thousands of TSC and NSC applicants with PDs in 00-01 are still pending while CSC and VSC are moving through more recent PD cases. This retro has put an end to that.

What can be said is that the USCIS is trying to get a handle on things. In the long run these policies will help but in the shortrun its going to be hell for us.

I was just thinking that somehow I have managed to catch almost every bad break that can be caught in this process. Its gotten to a point where I just expect worse things to happen. :)

regards,

saras76
Click to expand...

saras76,

You are correct. Last year I saw most of the approvals came from vermont service center and then from California. I have few friends who applied for labor under EB3 after september 2002 and they got their green card last year between October to December 2004. I am happy for them but still feel it is injustice to all of us who have applied under Texas service center. I always feel that they should distribute visa numbers among 4 service centers based on the volume of applications they get every year so that every one stay happy. I just got my second EAD approved for one year and don't know how many more I will have to apply for. I wish that atleast they should start approving EADs/APs for 2 to 3 years ....


Eb3 India Sept. 2002,
I140/I485 Oct. 8 , 2004
I140 approved = Feb. 18, 2005
I485 approved date == ???????? LUD changed May4, 2005 after FP, Lud changed July 1, 2005, July 5,2005.
FP = May3, 2005 (code 3)
EAD1 RD = Oct. 8,2004 Approved November 10,2004
AP1 RD = Oct. 8,2004 Approved November 16,2004
EAD2 RD = Sep. 1,2005 Approved September 8,2005
AP2 RD = Sep. 1,2005 Approved September 9,2005
 
The message is load and clear!

An out of control Immigration system that allows a million illegals every year while screwing the legal migrants in many different ways. A broken bureacracy and an increasingly fascist right wing trend. Declining opportunities. Rising health costs. Folks, welcome to USA.
I am completing my MBA in December and was unsure about returning to India. Thanks to retrogression, my mind is clear. This has actually helped me make up my mind and I am glad that I will be returning to my family and friends next year. The good roads and lack of pollution dont justify the misery and lack of opportunity/freedom in this country anymore. Let's go back home, stop complaining, use the opportunity and lead a more meaningful life.
 
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