prediction - vsc will stay on 4/1/00 till end of june

R

Raju Krishnan

Registered Users (C)
I feel VSC will stay on 4/1/00 cases or earlier (exceptions excluded)
and clear up oct - dec 99 cases.
After end of June VSC will start going for Apr/May/Jun 00 cases in July
 
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My guess is that they have already started working on them, that
has been the usual trend, I feel by end of May, early June you would
see a spur of approvals, just my 2 cents
 
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I posted a figure last time, but nobody had any response. I guess nobody understood it. I think the figure is neat and would give you an indication where vsc is heading to in terms of precessing time. So I am posting it again. The figure show the waiting time in months of the I-485 cases in 1999(black line), 2000(blue line), and 2001(red line). The other red line shows the time RD 06/00 cases has waited and it will goes up as the case waits. When the two red lines meet, RD 06/00 cases will be approved. So if vsc is processing 04/00 and continue at the same speed, 06/00 cases will be approved in less than 1.5 months (best scenerio). If vsc decides to clean up all old cases and stay on 04/01/00, the red line (with circle) will go parallel to the 06/00 red line (with triangle). The two will not meet soon (worst senerio).

I personally feel a little fishy about vsc processing 4/1/00. There is no doubt that vsc has been flying and has processed some 04/00 cases, but there are still a lot of 11/99-03/00 cases waiting without RFEs. So assuming vsc is still doing 02/00 cases, we will probably have to wait for 3 more months.
 
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I believe VSC will continue processing May/June cases as well as try to clear up backlogs. I experienced this @I140 stage. My ND was OCT/99 and it took me 14 months whereas I saw people got their approvals in 5/6 months whoever applied in early 2000. At 485, my ND is Jan/2001 and that\'s why I\'m a little optimist this time.
 
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I had a good look at your graph.
It does make sense - the only problem I see is that when you use graphs you tend to extrapolate based on old information - e.g. from the graph of 3 months back would we have been able to predict
that VSC would approve many 3/00 cases ??

Also the graph does not use the load on VSC. After MAR/00 the case
loads from india/china drop considerably.
 
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I know the deficiency of the graph for not considering the volume, but it does give us some sort of bounds on how long we have to wait. For example, we know that it took about a year\'s waiting in 1999, 13-18 months of waiting in 2000. The sharp drop in the waiting time which happend in the last month also occured in last year. Anyway, happy waiting. Hopefully we will get approved in a few months.
 
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Someone I know who sent the application on May 1, 2000 got approval 2 days ago. ND could have been late May or beginning of June 2000. It took about 1 year. VSC is moving at good rate!
 
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I have a friend ND is late Feb 2000, EB3 Others, with RFE and got her GC 2 weeks ago..so it\'s just like 1 year and 2 months...and the way VSC approving recently, i\'m hoping to get my approval by july, after one year.

My details:
  ND - July 2000
  FP - November 2000
  EB - Others
 
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three approvals already for may 00 NDs !

one EB1
one EB2 RIR
one EB? (Newmember - what other details do you have ?)

Looks like VSC is already into APR/MAY 2000 cases !
Now for JUN 2000 ! Keeping fingers crossed !
 
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I hope VSC will try to finish July-September 2000 cases. I will do it if I were VSC. There seem to be a small number of them so it is not very hard. VSC will look much better if it does just that.
 
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Stay bullish on VSC, guys.

W. just put in a new INS commissioner. he will crack the whip, and make sure that the 180 day rule is redundant - i.e. VSC takes
 
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I agree with you - they might just do that.
Theres not many applications from India/China during APR 00 to Sep 00.
It will keep them from appearing to be very slow.
Just bad luck for those who happen to be in Sep 99 to Nov 99
and PD not current who got passed over the first time.
 
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Thats\' a good point raised be \'nonu gaddam\'. That might be one of the prime reasons for VSC moving so fast.
The other reason being \'180 day rule\' complexity. The only way to avoid the such complexity is get it approved before any application reaches the 180th day. Simple theory but great results.
Good luck to all.
 
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