Predicted Priority Dates for 2006
- Thread starter nishokie
- Start date
marlon2006
Registered Users (C)
Can you speak in English please ? THanks !
neocor said:
rkrishna22
Registered Users (C)
Hey Guys,
I was thinking through this Re-trogression. For a moment, I wanted to play advocate from USCIS side and see how I can work through these numbers:
Assumptions:
1) Total Green cards of 140,000 for a given fiscal year
2) 28.6 % each for a given category EB1, EB2, AND EB3. Let us stop at this and assume that no over-flow from one category to another as this is just the first quarter of fiscal
3) Per country limit of 7.1 %
4) Also, we all are aware that last few years where the dates stayed current was because of AC21 and a lot of visas were issued from the pool recaptured from earlier years' un-used quota. We all should remember and not question why suddenly there is a concept of priority date now. We should have seen it coming, I think
5) The annual limit be divided into 4 quarters as, again, we are in the first quarter
6) I would like to, an un-written rule, follow a monthly quota system within the quarter
7) Let me address only one country for simplicity sake
8) Average family size 3
I hope these assumptions are not wrong, please correct me if I am wrong.
Step1: Per country limit for the year 9,800 (rounded) 7.1 % of 140,000
Step2: Limit for each category 2,700 (rounded) 28.6% Step 1
Step3: Limit for a category for 1 Qtr 675 25 % of Step 2
Step4: Limit for a category for 1 month 225 1/3 of Step 3 (imagined)
Step4: Family Limit for a cat for 1 month 75 1/3 of Step 4
That is if there are 75 applications that either BEC OR DOL has communicated to Dept of State as having cleared or USCIS has communicated to State Dept are either approved 140 or ready to adjudicate petitions which has been already received, the Dept of State has nothing else to do but take the dates back to those dates.
Facts to remember:
1) There were so many companies back then with so many employees in Y2K days that would have applied for Labors and not windraw them later. Can be true, though, the beneficiaries may not be with those companies, like someone pointed out
2) BECs (Backlog Elimination Centers) clearing those dormant for a decade or so, applications. Can be very true
3) Employers holding onto approved labors. Can be true
Questions to ponder over:
1) How can we make these employers withdraw these labors, may be one best way is to support the measure to ban the Labor Substitutions and put a limit on number of days life to a labor approval. In 2-3 months, all these labors would go invalid and the dates can progress
2) Can there be another AC21 like bill. Yes, if we can pool up and support a big PR initiative and get backing for one of the bills pending and introduce a new bill on these lines
Please tell me how off I am from the calculations!!
Now, enough of USCIS side stuff. I need to get my permannet residency in this country. Let us talk about how I can get this. Throw your ideas!!
I was thinking through this Re-trogression. For a moment, I wanted to play advocate from USCIS side and see how I can work through these numbers:
Assumptions:
1) Total Green cards of 140,000 for a given fiscal year
2) 28.6 % each for a given category EB1, EB2, AND EB3. Let us stop at this and assume that no over-flow from one category to another as this is just the first quarter of fiscal
3) Per country limit of 7.1 %
4) Also, we all are aware that last few years where the dates stayed current was because of AC21 and a lot of visas were issued from the pool recaptured from earlier years' un-used quota. We all should remember and not question why suddenly there is a concept of priority date now. We should have seen it coming, I think
5) The annual limit be divided into 4 quarters as, again, we are in the first quarter
6) I would like to, an un-written rule, follow a monthly quota system within the quarter
7) Let me address only one country for simplicity sake
8) Average family size 3
I hope these assumptions are not wrong, please correct me if I am wrong.
Step1: Per country limit for the year 9,800 (rounded) 7.1 % of 140,000
Step2: Limit for each category 2,700 (rounded) 28.6% Step 1
Step3: Limit for a category for 1 Qtr 675 25 % of Step 2
Step4: Limit for a category for 1 month 225 1/3 of Step 3 (imagined)
Step4: Family Limit for a cat for 1 month 75 1/3 of Step 4
That is if there are 75 applications that either BEC OR DOL has communicated to Dept of State as having cleared or USCIS has communicated to State Dept are either approved 140 or ready to adjudicate petitions which has been already received, the Dept of State has nothing else to do but take the dates back to those dates.
Facts to remember:
1) There were so many companies back then with so many employees in Y2K days that would have applied for Labors and not windraw them later. Can be true, though, the beneficiaries may not be with those companies, like someone pointed out
2) BECs (Backlog Elimination Centers) clearing those dormant for a decade or so, applications. Can be very true
3) Employers holding onto approved labors. Can be true
Questions to ponder over:
1) How can we make these employers withdraw these labors, may be one best way is to support the measure to ban the Labor Substitutions and put a limit on number of days life to a labor approval. In 2-3 months, all these labors would go invalid and the dates can progress
2) Can there be another AC21 like bill. Yes, if we can pool up and support a big PR initiative and get backing for one of the bills pending and introduce a new bill on these lines
Please tell me how off I am from the calculations!!
Now, enough of USCIS side stuff. I need to get my permannet residency in this country. Let us talk about how I can get this. Throw your ideas!!
berkeleybee
Registered Users (C)
rkrishna22 said:
I did exactly the same sort of calculations. Slightly different assumptions produce slightly different numbers but the big picture is the same -- there are only 225-250 immigrant numbers available to Indians in each of the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories. Now I'm wondering why I didn't think of this before. The clearing of the labor backlog made this inevitable. The greatest number of labor cert applications and probably Indian tech labor applications came through in the 2001-2002 period. I assume we are talking about tens of thousands of successful applications, if not a hundred thousand. At this rate of (2700-2800 for each of the EB-1, 2, 3 categories) I can only imagine how long the retrogression will last.
There will be no change unless the total number of EB visa numbers is increased dramatically and the per-country limits are increased dramatically.
Look at October 2005
The appointments in chennai for Oct 2005
reflects that entire E visas are going for EX folks who are healthcare workers
no offense but the schedule A quota is very partial and benefits just a section of employment folks
i guess we all sit and crib about mustering support but none of us follow up or do any thing about it and expect the world to change over night.
Again without any legislative action this situation is not going to get better and without you all support/initiative there is not going to be any legislative action.
/RS
The appointments in chennai for Oct 2005
reflects that entire E visas are going for EX folks who are healthcare workers
no offense but the schedule A quota is very partial and benefits just a section of employment folks
i guess we all sit and crib about mustering support but none of us follow up or do any thing about it and expect the world to change over night.
Again without any legislative action this situation is not going to get better and without you all support/initiative there is not going to be any legislative action.
/RS
nishokie said:
In my opinion, the most confused of the lot are (in order)-
1) DOS (most confused - trying to make sense of the avalanche coming from USCIC & DOL; they have no idea what is happening down below in 1 & 2 )
2) USCIS (managing the mess of i-140s, i-485s, needless number of EAD petitions when they could automatically grant one on i-485 application till we get a green card thus reducing paperwork; and of course a whole bunch of other I...forms)
3) DOL (still trying to manage the BPC mess)
4) WE GUYS ( CONFUSED AND FRUSTRATED because 1,2 and 3 are horribly confused and messed up; unable to give us a clearly reasonable picture)
.Man; it is not rocket science to give clear estimates. I guess it would be a matter of multiplication and division just to start with for some reasonably approximate numbers. I guess we have a right to know what are the total number of pending GC applications that have made it past the LC stage; how many pending LCs are there etc. so that at least we could do the number crunching here in this forum to plan and get the heck out of here if there is no light at the end of the tunnel.well said
concorde said:In my opinion, the most confused of the lot are (in order)-
1) DOS (most confused - trying to make sense of the avalanche coming from USCIC & DOL; they have no idea what is happening down below in 1 & 2 )
2) USCIS (managing the mess of i-140s, i-485s, needless number of EAD petitions when they could automatically grant one on i-485 application till we get a green card thus reducing paperwork; and of course a whole bunch of other I...forms)
3) DOL (still trying to manage the BPC mess)
4) WE GUYS ( CONFUSED AND FRUSTRATED because 1,2 and 3 are horribly confused and messed up; unable to give us a clearly reasonable picture)
berkeleybee said:
I definitely agree with you. In some of the calculations that myself and my friends have been doing we got ridiculous figure of 35 year queue for EB3 applications. I don't really see the per country limits being increased. That would definitely cause an outcry against immigration here.