Predicted Priority Dates for 2006

Oct New Fiscal Year Visa No Allocation and USCIS Preparation Adjud of EB3

October New Fiscal Year Visa Number Allocation and USCIS Preparation for Adjudication of EB-3 485 Applications

Early next month, September, DOS will release the October 2005 Visa Bulletin and people will see the impact of new fiscal year visa number allocation on EB-3 visa number availability. As the State Department has already predicted, EB-3 visa number may become current for world-wide, and even for China and India, some numbers may become available inasmuch as their priority dates are older than the new cut-off dates which the October 2005 Visa Bulletin will establish.
Report indicates that the Service Centers have been continuously processing EB-485 cases even though their visa numbers are currently unavailable and they cannot decide the cases. They are getting ready for October 1, 2005! No wonder why the EB-3 I-485 applicants have been receiving biometic appointment letters en masse lately. This is certainly not a bad news at all.
Here are a few pointers which may help the people who have been anxiously waiting for the EB-3 visa numbers becoming available for them:
First, when you receive the biometric scheduling, you should never reschedule it as it can cause a delay in processing your EB-3 I-485 applications. For Indians and Chinese, you may learn that such rescheduling will turn out be one of the most serious mistakes you would ever have made in the immigration journey.
Second, when RFE is received for either I-140 or EB-3 I-485 applications, you should send in responses as promptly as possible so that your cases will get ready for adjudication when the EB-3 visa numbers will become availabe on October 1 and thereafter.
Third, you should not do anything that can trigger transfer of EB-3 I-485 applications to the local district offices for interview or issuance of RFE. Once the cases are transferred to the local offices, the cases are subject to the local offices processing queue and decisions can be delayed substantially. Same will be true with the RFE. Those who have changed employers using AC 21 180-rule may want to assess the advantages and disadvantages of proactively reporting their employment changes with the help of their legal counsels.
Fourth, you should not do anything that will either cause a delay in completion of the name checks or trigger trasfer of the case to local district offices for clarification of issues that surfaced through the name checks for fact findings through the interviews. Minor violations of criminal law or local ordinance that require fingerprinting may trigger transfer of the cases to local offices, no matter whether it involves a deportable offense or not. Exit from the U.S. may also be reported by BCP inspectors through the database and the surrendered I-94 documents, which can cause some delays in adjudications, even though in most cases international travelling should not and have not affected adjudication of I-485 applications.
If you have any violation of status in whatever forms after filing I-485 applications, your contact with the agencies through extension or change of nonimmigrant status should be minimized as their findings of violation of nonimmigrant status post-filing of I-485 will seriously affect your eligibility for adjustment of status.
 
nishokie said:
whats your rationale for guessing October 2001 ???

heck even the DOS has been doing some guessing on this ??
Click to expand...

Not much rationale, and as i said just a round figure of 4 years.
One second thought probably makes sense too with all the baklog centers churning out approval left right and center for 2000 and 2001 labor filers.

This is if the USCIS is keeping tab of what the backlog centers are doing. Otherwise probably there will be a better cut-off date say (Oct 2003) for one month (October) and later when the USCIS realizes what they have done the dates will become again unavailable in November.
 
neocor said:
Not much rationale, and as i said just a round figure of 4 years.
One second thought probably makes sense too with all the baklog centers churning out approval left right and center for 2000 and 2001 labor filers.

This is if the USCIS is keeping tab of what the backlog centers are doing. Otherwise probably there will be a better cut-off date say (Oct 2003) for one month (October) and later when the USCIS realizes what they have done the dates will become again unavailable in November.
Click to expand...

i highly doubt that DOS will release initial cut-off for October 2003 and then later scale it back to sometime in 2001 or 2002.

initial cut-off of October 2002 is a good guess and i know it'll make a lot of people happy.
 
nishokie said:
what i find interesting is how DOS makes these projections for visa cut off dates ?? Do the USCIS and DOS ever communicate on the number of applications they are processing ?

Starting October 2005, there are going to be 35K odd EB3 visas available for the year. Will the DOS release all of these visas for the USCIS to process or does the DOS release these visas in batches.

I have been reading in publications how USCIS was processing 20K immigrant visas in a month and that lead an increased demand of EB3 visas but for USCIC to achieve their goal of processing applications in 6 months by 2006, they would need more visas. So there is a good reason to believe that USCIS may be in favor of increasing the number of immigrant visas....because we don't know how many EB3's are still waiting currently in the CP or the 485 stage. If due to retrogression, an applicant spends more time in the 485 stage, will the USCIS be able to claim that they have been processing applications in 6 months...it would be easy for USCIS to pin the blame on the law and DOS. There are a lot of uncertainties and a lot of unpredictability...we'll have to wait and watch till September 2005 till the DOS releases the new PD's for EB3????
Click to expand...

You realize that all AOS applications which do not have visa number available are not considered to be backlogged by the USCIS, right? That is their regular trick: today we have a million cases backlogged and visa # available, tomorrow there are no visas #s available and there's no backlog therefore.
 
http://www.immigration-law.com/

08/18/2005: EB-3 Visa Number Problem and Likely Relief by Pending Immigration Reform Bills

So far we have reported a depressing EB-3 visa number prediction based on the current immigration law that allocates only 140,000 a year for the employment-based immigrant visas. However, there are two leading immigration reform legislative bills pending in the Senate which are likely to give some relief to the EB-3 backlog problem, should the bills be enacted into law. One is McCain-Kennedy bill, S. 1033, and the other Cornyn-Kyl bill, S.1438. These bills have attracted a lot of attention from the media and public in two respects: Differences in the two bills in the issues of legalization of illegal aliens and the weight of border and enforcement in the nation's immigration policy.
However, from the perspective of the employment-based immigrant community, these two bills will benefit, albeit differently, the EB-3 workers tremendously. The following table compares the current EB visa number allocation system with proposed changes in the allocation system in these two bills:
Current System Cornyn-Kyl bill McCain-Kennedy bill Remarks
EB Total Annual Quota 140,000(100%) 190,000(100%) 290,000(100%)
EB-1 28.6% 20.0% 20.0%
EB-2 28.6% 20.0% 20.0%
EB-31 28.6%* 35.0% 35.0% *Includes EB-3 EW unckillsed other worker upto 10,000
Current EB-3 EW Other Workers** Included in EB-31* -** -** **Current EB 3 EW is reclassified into the new EB-5 preference
Current EB-4 (Special Immigrants)*** 7.1% -*** -*** ***Currently EB-4 category removed.
Current EB-5(Investor)**** 7.1% -**** -**** ****Moved upto the new EB-4 preference
New EB-4(Investor) - 4.0% 5.0% Formerly EB-5
New EB-5(Other Workers) - Upto 36.0%

(21.0%)
Upto 30.0%

(20.0%)
Formerly EB-3 EW Other Workers. Since it is the lowest preference, if EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, and EB-3 use up their numbers, the practical available number would be the figures in the parenthesis.
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Under both Cornyn-Kyl bill and McCain-Kenney bill, the big winners will be the current EB-3 workers. For instance, current EB-3 quota, excluding nurses and physical therapists, is approximately 40,000 a year including EB-3 skilled and professional workers and EB-3EW other workers (upto 10,000), but it will increase to 104,000 plus (66,500 EB-3 + 38,000 new EB-5) under Cornyn-Kyl bill, and to 159,000 plus (101,500 EB-3 + 58,000 new EB-5) under McCain-Kennedy bill. Part of this benefit will come from termination of immigration visa lottery, 55,000 (DV Program). Both bills also provide positive recapture of unused numbers in the previous years which will lead to some numbers available for the regular EB-3 workers after taking away 50,000 numbers by the nurses and physical therapists.
When it comes to the specific numbers, the two bills differ to a great extent, but remarkably both bills are committed to reducing the serious EB-3 backlogs under the current immigration quota system. This is a good news.
 
i know this is our last hope but sometimes bills takes months and even years to get implemented just depends on how much force there is behind it. it is also likely that when the bill is passed, it may drop the backlog reduction topic.....as an example just look at what happened when only the nurses and PT's benefitted from the additional 50K visas even though originally the bill was suppose to provide relief to techie workers too.

so its improtant to lobby your senator/congressman to be the driving force behind these bills...tell them your personalized story and the impact.



appan said:
08/18/2005: EB-3 Visa Number Problem and Likely Relief by Pending Immigration Reform Bills

So far we have reported a depressing EB-3 visa number prediction based on the current immigration law that allocates only 140,000 a year for the employment-based immigrant visas. However, there are two leading immigration reform legislative bills pending in the Senate which are likely to give some relief to the EB-3 backlog problem, should the bills be enacted into law. One is McCain-Kennedy bill, S. 1033, and the other Cornyn-Kyl bill, S.1438. These bills have attracted a lot of attention from the media and public in two respects: Differences in the two bills in the issues of legalization of illegal aliens and the weight of border and enforcement in the nation's immigration policy.
However, from the perspective of the employment-based immigrant community, these two bills will benefit, albeit differently, the EB-3 workers tremendously. The following table compares the current EB visa number allocation system with proposed changes in the allocation system in these two bills:
Current System Cornyn-Kyl bill McCain-Kennedy bill Remarks
EB Total Annual Quota 140,000(100%) 190,000(100%) 290,000(100%)
EB-1 28.6% 20.0% 20.0%
EB-2 28.6% 20.0% 20.0%
EB-31 28.6%* 35.0% 35.0% *Includes EB-3 EW unckillsed other worker upto 10,000
Current EB-3 EW Other Workers** Included in EB-31* -** -** **Current EB 3 EW is reclassified into the new EB-5 preference
Current EB-4 (Special Immigrants)*** 7.1% -*** -*** ***Currently EB-4 category removed.
Current EB-5(Investor)**** 7.1% -**** -**** ****Moved upto the new EB-4 preference
New EB-4(Investor) - 4.0% 5.0% Formerly EB-5
New EB-5(Other Workers) - Upto 36.0%

(21.0%)
Upto 30.0%

(20.0%)
Formerly EB-3 EW Other Workers. Since it is the lowest preference, if EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, and EB-3 use up their numbers, the practical available number would be the figures in the parenthesis.
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Under both Cornyn-Kyl bill and McCain-Kenney bill, the big winners will be the current EB-3 workers. For instance, current EB-3 quota, excluding nurses and physical therapists, is approximately 40,000 a year including EB-3 skilled and professional workers and EB-3EW other workers (upto 10,000), but it will increase to 104,000 plus (66,500 EB-3 + 38,000 new EB-5) under Cornyn-Kyl bill, and to 159,000 plus (101,500 EB-3 + 58,000 new EB-5) under McCain-Kennedy bill. Part of this benefit will come from termination of immigration visa lottery, 55,000 (DV Program). Both bills also provide positive recapture of unused numbers in the previous years which will lead to some numbers available for the regular EB-3 workers after taking away 50,000 numbers by the nurses and physical therapists.
When it comes to the specific numbers, the two bills differ to a great extent, but remarkably both bills are committed to reducing the serious EB-3 backlogs under the current immigration quota system. This is a good news.
Click to expand...
 
VERY TRUE
PLease send in letters and personalized stories to congressmen and senators
/rs
 
EB-3 Visa Number Problem and Likely Relief by Pending Immigration Reform Bills

So far we have reported a depressing EB-3 visa number prediction based on the current immigration law that allocates only 140,000 a year for the employment-based immigrant visas. However, there are two leading immigration reform legislative bills pending in the Senate which are likely to give some relief to the EB-3 backlog problem, should the bills be enacted into law. One is McCain-Kennedy bill, S. 1033, and the other Cornyn-Kyl bill, S.1438. These bills have attracted a lot of attention from the media and public in two respects: Differences in the two bills in the issues of legalization of illegal aliens and the weight of border and enforcement in the nation's immigration policy.

However, from the perspective of the employment-based immigrant community, these two bills will benefit, albeit differently, the EB-3 workers tremendously. The following table compares the current EB visa number allocation system with proposed changes in the allocation system in these two bills:
Current System <==> Cornyn-Kyl bill <==> McCain-Kennedy bill
EB Total Annual Quota 140,000(100%) <==> 190,000(100%) <==> 290,000(100%)
EB-1 28.6% <==> 20.0% <==> 20.0%
EB-2 28.6% <==> 20.0% <==> 20.0%
EB-31 28.6%* <==> 35.0% <==> 35.0%

*Includes EB-3 EW unckillsed other worker upto 10,000

=> Current EB-3 EW Other Workers Included in EB-31 per current system -Current EB 3 EW is reclassified into the new EB-5 preference
=> Current EB-4 (Special Immigrants) 7.1% per current system - Current EB-4 category removed.
=> Current EB-5(Investor) 7.1% per current system - Reclassified into the new EB-4 preference
=> New EB-4(Investor) - 4.0% (Cornyn-Kyl bill); 5.0% (McCain-Kennedy bill) -Formerly EB-5
=> New EB-5(Other Workers) - Upto 36.0% (21.0%) (Cornyn-Kyl bill); Upto 30.0% (20.0%) (McCain-Kennedy bill) - Formerly EB-3 EW Other Workers. Since it is the lowest preference, if EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, and EB-3 use up their numbers, the practical available number would be the figures in the parenthesis.

Under both Cornyn-Kyl bill and McCain-Kenney bill, the big winners will be the current EB-3 workers. For instance, current EB-3 quota, excluding nurses and physical therapists, is approximately 40,000 a year including EB-3 skilled and professional workers and EB-3EW other workers (upto 10,000), but it will increase to 104,000 plus (66,500 EB-3 + 38,000 new EB-5) under Cornyn-Kyl bill, and to 159,000 plus (101,500 EB-3 + 58,000 new EB-5) under McCain-Kennedy bill. Part of this benefit will come from termination of immigration visa lottery, 55,000 (DV Program). Both bills also provide positive recapture of unused numbers in the previous years which will lead to some numbers available for the regular EB-3 workers after taking away 50,000 numbers by the nurses and physical therapists.

When it comes to the specific numbers, the two bills differ to a great extent, but remarkably both bills are committed to reducing the serious EB-3 backlogs under the current immigration quota system. This is a good news.

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/

So bottomline is, support this bill strongly by sending letter/email/fax or phone call to your Senators/Congressman/President/Committees.

Don't know who is your senators/congressman or what to send? Click here:
http://immigrationportal.com/showpost.php?p=1202739&postcount=183
 
appan said:
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_bpcapp.html ... shows the pd will not move for Eb3 after oct 2005.
Click to expand...

"The BPC approvals will also fuel this demand, as more cases reach the stage where they are eligible for potential I-485 filing"
To reach the 485 stage, all these BPC approvals have to go thru the 140 and 485 application/CP processing stages. That should take some time.

"labor certification approvals will be coming from two directions, PERM and the BPCs, creating a greater demand for visa numbers"
I guess most of us would have P.D.s older than the PERM applications - hence PERM may not set us back by much.
 
Sandeep_N said:
"The BPC approvals will also fuel this demand, as more cases reach the stage where they are eligible for potential I-485 filing"
To reach the 485 stage, all these BPC approvals have to go thru the 140 and 485 application/CP processing stages. That should take some time.

"labor certification approvals will be coming from two directions, PERM and the BPCs, creating a greater demand for visa numbers"
I guess most of us would have P.D.s older than the PERM applications - hence PERM may not set us back by much.
Click to expand...

I hope once voiding the substitution labor, 45 labor apply rule comes into effect , lot of labors in BPC will become void. If the legislation on the immigration bill passes in the end of fall, end of spring then these factors will expedite the PD's a lot. So be hopeful guys.
 
update ??

anyone have any update on EB3 PD movement for October or cancallation of labor substitution ?
 
nishokie said:
anyone have any update on EB3 PD movement for October or cancallation of labor substitution ?
Click to expand...
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_endsub.html posted Aug 26 05
"The proposed regulation has cleared the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and will be returned from OMB to the DOL. From the DOL, it will be sent for publication in the Federal Register as a proposed rule. There will be an opportunity for public comment on the proposed rule" Note that http://www.dol.gov/eta/regs/unifiedagenda/1886.htm states that it is in "Proposed Rule Stage" as opposed to "Final Rule Stage" So this indicates that it would take some time. Also I believe it is more likely that it would apply to cases after it is passed and not retroactive...?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
thanks for the update. i'd seen the article before and i think murthy's views are not well justifed. her biased opinion does not reflect the injustice done to applicants who genuinely wait in the system for years for labor approval.....

from what i have heard is that a lot of applications pending in the BEC are for employers who potentially wanted to use these labors for future employees.....so hopefully things will get better once this rule is passed.

Sandeep_N said:
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_endsub.html posted Aug 26 05
"The proposed regulation has cleared the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and will be returned from OMB to the DOL. From the DOL, it will be sent for publication in the Federal Register as a proposed rule. There will be an opportunity for public comment on the proposed rule" Note that http://www.dol.gov/eta/regs/unifiedagenda/1886.htm states that it is in "Proposed Rule Stage" as opposed to "Final Rule Stage" So this indicates that it would take some time. Also I believe it is more likely that it would apply to cases after it is passed and not retroactive...?
Click to expand...
 
Immigration update from Shusterman

1. EB Numbers: Grim Outlook for the Coming Year
Things aren't what they used to be when it comes to the ability of persons to obtain permanent residence through the employment-based (EB) preference categories. Unless Congress acts quickly to remedy the situation, the coming backlogs will be a virtual "Hurricane Katrina" to U.S. employers and their foreign-born employees.
Because the CIS was slow to grant applications for adjustment of status between 2001 and 2004, and because AC-21 (a law enacted in late 2000) provided for the recapture of over 200,000 lost EB visa numbers, all of the EB categories remained current (no backlogs) during those years.

Things started to change for the worse beginning on January 1, 2005 when the EB-3 category (professionals and skilled workers) suddenly backlogged for three years for persons born in India, China and the Philippines. By July 1, 2005 and continuing throughout the balance of the fiscal year (until September 30, 2005), it became impossible to obtain or to submit new applications for permanent residence in the EB-3 category for all persons (with the exception of registered nurses and physical therapists).

Also "unavailable" are EB-3 visa numbers for unskilled workers.

What is the outlook for persons wishing to immigrate through the EB-3, EB-2 (persons with advanced degrees and persons of exceptional ability) and EB-1 (priority workers) categories in the fiscal year which begins on October 1, 2005?

The State Department, in their September 2005 Visa Bulletin, predicts that there will be backlogs in the EB-3 category starting on October 1, 2005 for persons born in India, China, the Philippines and possibly Mexico. By December 2005, the worldwide EB-3 category will also backlog. This means that there will be a waiting list for green cards no matter where the applicant is born.

An I-485 cannot be submitted to the CIS until the applicant's priority date is current. Fortunately, AC-21 allows applicants to extend their H-1B status if their EB visa category is backlogged. However, this benefit does not apply to persons in other nonimmigrant categories.

The State Department also predicts that no later than December 2005, the EB-1 and EB-2 categories for persons born in India and China will develop backlogs.

What happens to persons with pending I-485s? Fortunately, AC-21 again comes to the rescue. Not only may such persons continue to extend their H-1B status until their I-485s are adjudicated, but they may safely change jobs once their I-140s are approved and their I-485s have been pending for over 180 days as long as their employment is in the same or a similar occupation.

The State Department warns that "the level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow."

Legislatively, Congress can soften the impact of the coming backlogs by passing legislation to recapture EB visa numbers lost during the 2001-2004 period, and to accommodate the needs of U.S. businesses. All of the visa numbers recaptured by AC-21 have been used.

The next year promises to be a challenging one for intending immigrants and their attorneys. Knowledgeable and experienced immigration attorneys can help expedite the process of obtaining permanent residence by considering the job skills of both spouses, by utilizing alternate chargeability and by recognizing that the EB categories are not mutually exclusive. A good example of the later is provided in our success story in Topic #4 below.
 
EB3 Current in October

I spoke to my Lawyer today, who told me without any doubts that the Visa #s are going to be current in October and later in coming months may be with a cutoff dates....
I was searching all over the net to confirm this , but couldnt find anything. Has anyone heard something like that ????

If its so ... it will be greatest news of Yr2005 for immigrants so far. :)
 
hold your breath for a week. I wish you lawyer's prediction comes true..

Bhasu said:
I spoke to my Lawyer today, who told me without any doubts that the Visa #s are going to be current in October and later in coming months may be with a cutoff dates....
I was searching all over the net to confirm this , but couldnt find anything. Has anyone heard something like that ????

If its so ... it will be greatest news of Yr2005 for immigrants so far. :)
Click to expand...
 
Bhasu said:
I spoke to my Lawyer today, who told me without any doubts that the Visa #s are going to be current in October and later in coming months may be with a cutoff dates....
I was searching all over the net to confirm this , but couldnt find anything. Has anyone heard something like that ????

If its so ... it will be greatest news of Yr2005 for immigrants so far. :)
Click to expand...

Wow from all people a lawyer predicting that.
It means two things.

1. Ther PD will indeed become current in OCt 2005.
2. He is making an a** of you and wants you to reamain with his (and your) masters for more time.

The second is more realistic if he is your company lawyer and you have been threataning to leave if the GC process is not going anywhere.
However wishful thinking is that but each one of us here is hoping and praying that its the first possibility is ture.


neocor
 
Bhasu said:
I spoke to my Lawyer today, who told me without any doubts that the Visa #s are going to be current in October and later in coming months may be with a cutoff dates....
I was searching all over the net to confirm this , but couldnt find anything. Has anyone heard something like that ????

If its so ... it will be greatest news of Yr2005 for immigrants so far. :)
Click to expand...
Do not even expect it. Many attorneys are not aware of Priority date. Think it is great if the priority date stays at the same before going unavailable.
 
neocor said:
Wow from all people a lawyer predicting that.
It means two things.

1. Ther PD will indeed become current in OCt 2005.
2. He is making an a** of you and wants you to reamain with his (and your) masters for more time.

The second is more realistic if he is your company lawyer and you have been threataning to leave if the GC process is not going anywhere.
However wishful thinking is that but each one of us here is hoping and praying that its the first possibility is ture.


neocor
Click to expand...

It was unbelievable for me too .. well i guess your 1st reasoning is not true as USCIS made me a** for long enough. And besides I also applied I-485 in Dec2004 thru this lawyer only who is pushing me to file EAD. So I guess they dont see me as threat to leave before my GC as I'm already free to leave if I wish.
May be the later is true that she doesnt have any idea about the PDs. Well anyways still it sounds good to ears ...right ???

Thanks
 
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