Predicted Priority Dates for 2006

N

nishokie

Registered Users (C)
i usually don't rely on murthy website too much but for what its worth....

someone asked Murthy to make a prediction on the PD movement for EB3 category...here is her response.....

Chat User : Hello, Murthyji. If you were to make a guess, in October 2005, what do you think the retrogressed EB3 might open back with?

Attorney Murthy : Generally, the U.S. Department of State will release the October figures in mid September 2005. Then the effective date is October 1, 2005, if the PDs for Indian nationals will become current at that time. The expectation is that the PDs will become current for most nationals in EB3 except for India and China, possibly (since even the Philippines mostly had nurses who will now be covered under the new 50,000 quota for nurses). So don't expect an Indian national to enjoy the same PD cutoff as the rest of the world by October 1, 2005.

my guess like i have always been saying that PD's for EB3 will around late 2002 or early 2003.
 
My Guess -
Even though the PD becomes Late 2002 ( Nov or Dec 2002) in Oct 2005. I dont think there will be chance for further forward movement. By looking into backlog labor application (300k+), by 2ND Quarter of 2006, Again the PD might retotrogess back or stay where it is at that time, unless until there is new bill to open up more visa numbers.

Lets hope for the best
 
So far the DOS set the prioroty dates based on 'projections' of USCIS processing the AOS! This is in place for last several months! I am visiting this forum everyday and I am not seeing hoardes getting approved! It is the usual trickle not the flood. So, where are all the people who are getting approved? Happily settled in India/China/Phillipines/Canada? Or the newly discovered Latvian Software Engineers who are not regressed? Though this forum can provide us just a statistical sample, I do not believe the approvals that are getting posted here are anywhere near a reasonable sample of the 20,000 to 30,000 that are being approved(?) by USCIS every month! And these numbers are just for EB1 and EB2, as EB3 has been regressed/unavailable for some time.

Pl do post your corrections to my impression if you feel so.

Next time around, DOS has promised me to base their priority dates using a dart and a wall full of old calendars, to provide a better 'projection' to hapless fellows like us!!


nishokie said:
i usually don't rely on murthy website too much but for what its worth....

someone asked Murthy to make a prediction on the PD movement for EB3 category...here is her response.....

Chat User : Hello, Murthyji. If you were to make a guess, in October 2005, what do you think the retrogressed EB3 might open back with?

Attorney Murthy : Generally, the U.S. Department of State will release the October figures in mid September 2005. Then the effective date is October 1, 2005, if the PDs for Indian nationals will become current at that time. The expectation is that the PDs will become current for most nationals in EB3 except for India and China, possibly (since even the Philippines mostly had nurses who will now be covered under the new 50,000 quota for nurses). So don't expect an Indian national to enjoy the same PD cutoff as the rest of the world by October 1, 2005.

my guess like i have always been saying that PD's for EB3 will around late 2002 or early 2003.
Click to expand...
 
what i find interesting is how DOS makes these projections for visa cut off dates ?? Do the USCIS and DOS ever communicate on the number of applications they are processing ?

Starting October 2005, there are going to be 35K odd EB3 visas available for the year. Will the DOS release all of these visas for the USCIS to process or does the DOS release these visas in batches.

I have been reading in publications how USCIS was processing 20K immigrant visas in a month and that lead an increased demand of EB3 visas but for USCIC to achieve their goal of processing applications in 6 months by 2006, they would need more visas. So there is a good reason to believe that USCIS may be in favor of increasing the number of immigrant visas....because we don't know how many EB3's are still waiting currently in the CP or the 485 stage. If due to retrogression, an applicant spends more time in the 485 stage, will the USCIS be able to claim that they have been processing applications in 6 months...it would be easy for USCIS to pin the blame on the law and DOS. There are a lot of uncertainties and a lot of unpredictability...we'll have to wait and watch till September 2005 till the DOS releases the new PD's for EB3????

Hanuman55 said:
So far the DOS set the prioroty dates based on 'projections' of USCIS processing the AOS! This is in place for last several months! I am visiting this forum everyday and I am not seeing hoardes getting approved! It is the usual trickle not the flood. So, where are all the people who are getting approved? Happily settled in India/China/Phillipines/Canada? Or the newly discovered Latvian Software Engineers who are not regressed? Though this forum can provide us just a statistical sample, I do not believe the approvals that are getting posted here are anywhere near a reasonable sample of the 20,000 to 30,000 that are being approved(?) by USCIS every month! And these numbers are just for EB1 and EB2, as EB3 has been regressed/unavailable for some time.

Pl do post your corrections to my impression if you feel so.

Next time around, DOS has promised me to base their priority dates using a dart and a wall full of old calendars, to provide a better 'projection' to hapless fellows like us!!
Click to expand...
 
Sept. Bulletin

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2616.html

D. EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING FY-2006

The backlog reduction efforts of both Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Department of Labor continue to result in very heavy demand for Employment-based numbers. It is anticipated that the amount of such cases will be sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. As a result cut-off dates in the Employment Third preferency category will apply to the China, India, and Philippines chargeabilities beginning in October, and it is possible that Mexico may be added to this list. In addition, it is anticipated that heavy demand will require the establishment of a Third preference cut-off date on a Worldwide basis by December.

The amount of Employment demand for applicants from China and India is also likely to result in the oversubcription of the Employment First and Second preference categories for those chargeability areas. The establishment of such cut-off dates is expected to occur no later than December.

The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow.
 
this means that applicants in the EB3 category are going to be screwed again come OCtober 2005....the sad thing is that this bulletin says that once a cut-off date is established...little movement is expected.


Sandeep_N said:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2616.html

D. EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING FY-2006

The backlog reduction efforts of both Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Department of Labor continue to result in very heavy demand for Employment-based numbers. It is anticipated that the amount of such cases will be sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. As a result cut-off dates in the Employment Third preferency category will apply to the China, India, and Philippines chargeabilities beginning in October, and it is possible that Mexico may be added to this list. In addition, it is anticipated that heavy demand will require the establishment of a Third preference cut-off date on a Worldwide basis by December.

The amount of Employment demand for applicants from China and India is also likely to result in the oversubcription of the Employment First and Second preference categories for those chargeability areas. The establishment of such cut-off dates is expected to occur no later than December.

The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow.
Click to expand...
 
nishokie said:
this means that applicants in the EB3 category are going to be screwed again come OCtober 2005....the sad thing is that this bulletin says that once a cut-off date is established...little movement is expected.
Click to expand...
It does not mention what the dates would be but judging from the statement that there is a heavy demand, chances are less that the dates would move much from June '02. Hope it does not go back :( Since it will become worldwide retrogression in Dec and for EB 1 and 2 for China/India/Phillipines, there is still less chance that there would be much forward movement. Overall - pretty bleak....
 
yeah...now the only miracle we can wait for is if the congress passes the mccain immigration bill....
this is really sad news...


Sandeep_N said:
It does not mention what the dates would be but judging from the statement that there is a heavy demand, chances are less that the dates would move much from June '02. Hope it does not go back :( Since it will become worldwide retrogression in Dec and for EB 1 and 2 for China/India/Phillipines, there is still less chance that there would be much forward movement. Overall - pretty bleak....
Click to expand...
 
See comparison of McCain-Kennedy and Cornyn-Kyl Immigration Reform Bills:

http://www.shusterman.com/pdf/mccainvscornyn.pdf

Both supports recapture of visas, increase country limit and others. SO PLEASE WRITE EMAIL/LETTER/FAX/PHONE CALLS TO YOUR AREA SENATORS/CONGRESSMAN/PRESIDENT to resolve employment based visa retrogression issue and support that section in the bill. This will definitely encourage them. There will be important development on these bills starting from early next month. SO PLEASE DON'T WAIT and ACT NOW!

nishokie said:
yeah...now the only miracle we can wait for is if the congress passes the mccain immigration bill....
this is really sad news...
Click to expand...
 
Update from Murthy.com

NewsFlash! EB2 Numbers Available in Sep 2005 – Uncertain Future
Posted Aug 11, 2005
©MurthyDotCom
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has released the September 2005 Visa Bulletin. The most recent Visa Bulletin is always available on MurthyDotCom. September 2005 is the last month in fiscal year (FY) 2005. Though the DOS had earlier expressed concern that there could be retrogression in the Employment-Based Second Preference (EB2) category, it remains current for September 2005. Therefore, for the month of September 2005, there are enough visa numbers for all EB2 cases for all countries / nationalities. MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers were advised of the possibility of September EB2 retrogression, and provided with helpful links to more on this key immigration topic, in our July 22, 2005 article, EB2 Category Current in August 2005 : September Retrogression Possible.
©MurthyDotCom
DOS FY2006 Predictions for EB3s
©MurthyDotCom
The DOS provided predictions for FY2006 for all employment-based categories. As with FY2005, the most significant impact will initially be with the Employment Based Third Preference (EB3) category. Since July 1, 2005, EB3 numbers have been completely unavailable worldwide. This will change in October 2005, when additional numbers become available for FY2006. Though new visa numbers become available on October 1, 2005, the DOS is predicting that the demand for EB3 will continue to be high. Thus, there will not be enough visa numbers available for everyone, even at the beginning of the fiscal year.
©MurthyDotCom
As a result of the demand created by USCIS backlog reduction efforts, the EB3 category for India, mainland China, and the Philippines is expected to start the year with a cut-off date. This means that some, but not all, persons having EB3 cases from these countries will be able to seek to complete the third stage of green card processing starting from October 2005. To date, the DOS has not indicated what this cut-off date might be.
©MurthyDotCom
Mexico also may possibly be subject to an EB3 cut-off date starting in October 2005. It is likely as well that worldwide cut-off dates, for persons from all other countries, may be established by as early as December 2005.
©MurthyDotCom
If the demand is as high as the DOS expects, the cut-off date movement each month is likely to be quite slow. This means that it is possible some people who have filed in the EB3 category will not be eligible to complete their green card processing in FY2006, due to unavailability of the necessary visa numbers.
©MurthyDotCom
DOS FY2006 Predictions for EB1s and EB2s
©MurthyDotCom
The DOS also anticipates that cut-off dates will be established for Employment Based First Preference (EB1) and EB2 cases for mainland China and India no later than December 2005. Therefore, for nationals of China and India, if a case is eligible for I-485 filing at this time, it is important to proceed, before cut-off dates are established for these countries. Eligibility after the cut-off dates are established will depend upon one's priority date.
©MurthyDotCom
Conclusion
©MurthyDotCom
These developments are important to immigration planning and strategy. Those individuals interested in obtaining employment-based green cards, and their employers, should have a basic understanding of issues surrounding visa numbers and priority dates. This is vital to understanding case processing and developing immigration strategies. Persons with questions as to what this means for them and their cases should consult with qualified immigration attorneys.
 
I am on a spree now.
Another Guesstimate from me.

Oct 2001

Reason : A round figure of 4 yeats backlog.
 
whats your rationale for guessing October 2001 ???

heck even the DOS has been doing some guessing on this ??
neocor said:
I am on a spree now.
Another Guesstimate from me.

Oct 2001

Reason : A round figure of 4 yeats backlog.
Click to expand...
 
i looked at the last time when visa numbers had retrogressed in 2000 and 2001...from the month of September 2000 to OCtober 2000 the PD's for India jumped almost a year.....but i assume back then they didn't have the problem that so many LC's from previous years were not certified.

with the BEC approving so many applications, it is anybody's guess where the PD's for India/China might be...but its interesting to note that for everyone else the PD's will be current.


prosix said:
They will remain same for first month i.e. June 2002 :mad:
Click to expand...
 
nishokie said:
i looked at the last time when visa numbers had retrogressed in 2000 and 2001...from the month of September 2000 to OCtober 2000 the PD's for India jumped almost a year.....but i assume back then they didn't have the problem that so many LC's from previous years were not certified.

with the BEC approving so many applications, it is anybody's guess where the PD's for India/China might be...but its interesting to note that for everyone else the PD's will be current.
Click to expand...

That big jump was because AC-21 numbers released in October 2000.
 
nishokie said:
i looked at the last time when visa numbers had retrogressed in 2000 and 2001...from the month of September 2000 to OCtober 2000 the PD's for India jumped almost a year.....but i assume back then they didn't have the problem that so many LC's from previous years were not certified.

Nishokie,
This time it is different. That was because of AC21 giving more visaas and technical folks getting priorirty as Schedule A gets now. Folloiwng are the imp. variables for the movement of PD:
1)Available visas at the per country level
2)Labor substitution
3)DOL/USCIS backlog reduction effort.

3) is giong to continue, 1) is very low for FY 2006 and about 20K for Indian citizens, 3) still allowed and hence a huge variable. Hence with the current immigration state, I would certainly say that the PD movement would be extremely sluggish for the whole year. However as they say with every hardship there is always a silver linining in it, which are the efforts
a) DOL trying to stop Labor substitution which will overcome the variable 2) above
b)Congress trying to work on increasing the visa , per country limits

Hence if the above things go through then the PD movements will be fast, may be even current :).
Again I am using logic here to elucidate to these conculsion but USCIS, DOL haven't always applied logic but rather have been using a big guess dates so it may swing anyways :)



with the BEC approving so many applications, it is anybody's guess where the PD's for India/China might be...but its interesting to note that for everyone else the PD's will be current.
Click to expand...
 
well in that event, lets hope that the cornyn or the mccain bill gets thru...any of these bills would bring the much needed relief.
my life is in real turmoil because of this....i can't change jobs, cant get promotion, my wife can't work...the list is endless.

 
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