Re: odds
Originally posted by simply_valabour
What are odds of things going wrong in CP?. Any historical data in numbers or hear-say?
Is it a risk or not that much of a risk?.
_valabour
Here's my understanding (anyone, please feel free to point out problems/issues/ommisions).
The biggest risk compared to AOS is that your position could be terminated. If this happens before your CP interview is complete you are back to square one (including having to leave the US depending on your visa situation). With AOS, as long as you can find a similar job to the original one before the AOS is adjucated (as long as this takes more than 180 days which is pretty much guaranteed these days) then the AOS can still proceed.
For this reason alone, most people feel (and I agree) that if your job security is at all in doubt then you should go with AOS.
The next biggest risk (IMO) is that, if you are denied during the CP interview you will be stuck outside of the US until (if) the reasons for the denial can be resolved. My understanding is that with AOS, you don't have to leave the US on denial since you can initiate an appeal process to try to resolve the situation (presumably, if that fails then you will be asked to leave). Depending on the reasons for the denial, I've also read that even with AOS you can potentially be immediately detained then booted out of the US.
That said, I've seen on a couple of sites that the odds of being denied tend to be lower during CP than during AOS because the CP rules are somewhat more flexible than the AOS rules. This link (
http://imminfo.com/Knowledgebase/FAQs/FAQ_CP.html) claims that the odds of a denial during CP are 15-25x less than during AOS (some people have pointed out that these guys might be biased towards CP -- I don't have an opinion on that myself). But, from what I can tell, as long as you don't have any "special" circumstances (arrests, being out of status, diseases etc.) problems which will cause a denial should rarely (almost never?) come up via either process as long as all your paperwork is in order.
AOS also has a number of other advantages which may make it the best path for some people including the ability to obtain EADs for yourself, your spouse and your children over the age of 16 (and maybe only if under the age of 21 -- I'm not sure) so they can work shortly after filing the I-485. And, if you are in a situation where your visa status is about to end going the AOS route may be your only option (because you can use the EAD to work). AOS is also likely to be cheaper / more convenient since you don't have to travel to a foreign consulate to be processed.
The biggest strike against AOS IMO is that if your job does seem fairly secure for at least 1-2 years, then CP will get you your green card at least 1, possibly 2 years more quickly than AOS with the current processing times. And, until you get the green card, your job can't change significantly (no promotions, no switching into another area). And, I'm concerned (perhaps with no justification) that the INS / BCIS could change the rules at any time (e.g. freeze green card processing, review previously certified LCs due to the economy / security issues) which is a reason IMO to get this done asap (assuming you feel your job is secure enough to survive the year or so that CP will take).
For more info, check out
http://www.murthy.com/choose.html and
http://www.murthy.com/UDaosvcp.html for good AOS vs CP summaries and also check the info posted a few days ago on this site.
Hope this helps / is more-or-less accurate
ETA