The reasons given on
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09/15/2005: Visa Number Retrogression and State Department Background Explanation
* Our review of the State Department reports indicates that the current visa number problem has been created by three factors, among others: One is the USCIS acceleration of reduction of processing times of EB-485 during the past one year in order to meet the Bush commitment of processing time reduction to 6 months by September 30, 2006. Readers may want to revisit our report on this issue a few days back. Between 2004 and 2005, the backlogs were reduced more than 69%, from close to 4 million cases to only 1 million cases of entire EB cases. The cases which they have adjudicated included many oldest backlog cases. Since the 6-month processing time must be achieved by September 30, 2006, the demand for visa number will continuously rise and heavy. That is why the State Department predicted in October Visa Bulletin a limited movement of visa number during FY 2006. Secondly, the Congress passed a legislation giving 50,000 special numbers to nurses and physical therapists which they can recapture from the unused employment visa numbers between 2001 and 2004. The recapturable number in early 2005 was approximately 110,000. The problem is that the State Department uses regular visa EB-3 quota numbers before they deplete the recapture numbers for the nurses and physical therapists. Obviously there were huge number of oldest cases for nurses waiting for a long line of EB-3 who started taking out the EB-3 numbers. Good news is that the impact from this second factor may gradually alleviated because of the limited period allowed in the legislation and soon-to-be exhausted recapture numbers. Thirdly, the deterioration of EB-3 visa numbers has added a pressure on EB-1 and EB-2 as increased number of Chinese and Indians sought EB-1 and EB-2 options. Old timers will remember that when the visa number retrogressed in the 1990s, the Chinese and Indians experienced exactly same problem. In fact, one time EB-2 number became worse than EB-3 number for the Chinese. As time moved on, such unusual movement of the visa numbers between EB-2 and EB-3 gradually subsided and it is expected that the history will repeat itself and the retrogression for EB-1 and EB-2 is expected to be alleviated as time moves on. The State Department may give us further predictions in the future, but we have decided to post the State Department's reports in the Visa Bulletin on the Employment Visa allocation prediction and its background explanation to give readers some sense out of the current crisis. This reporter hopes that this posting will help the readers' body temperature a little bit down and come out of the mental state of "blue." We will have to keep a "positive" attitude in this kind of crisis and should not allow emotional depression overwhelm our lives.
* January 2005 Report: EB-3 Retrogression, Cutoff Date and Background of Cutoff Date Decision:
o The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (Title I of Pub. L. 106 - 313 enacted on October 17, 2000) contained several provisions intended to increase the availability of Employment-based numbers. Pub. L. 106-313 recaptured those Employment-based numbers that were available but not used in Fiscal Years 1999 and 2000, creating a “pool” of 130,107 numbers which could be allocated to applicants in the Employment First, Second, and Third preference categories once the annual Employment-based numerical limit has been reached. Approximately 101,000 of these “pool” numbers remain available for use during FY-1005. Pub. L. 106-313 also removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.
o Changes in CIS processing procedures during the past two years created a significant backlog of cases and a consequent reduction in demand for numbers.
During the time that the Employment-based categories have remained “Current” many tens of thousands of applicants have become eligible to file for adjustment of status. Last summer, CIS notified Congress of its intent to eliminate its current backlogs by the end of FY-2006. As a result of the CIS backlog reduction effort, we are now experiencing very heavy visa demand as CIS has begun to process cases to conclusion. Section 201(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that not more than 27 percent of the Employment-based annual limit may be used in each of the first three quarters of a fiscal year. Based on the current rate of demand, the 27 percent level for the first quarter of FY-2005 will be exceeded by the end of December.
o It has therefore become necessary to impose an Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for January in order to limit number use during the second quarter. Many of the cases have priority dates that are several years old, and the cut-off date represents the first priority date that cannot be accommodated for final processing. The cut-off date will apply only to the following chargeability areas: China-mainland born, India, and Philippines. Cut-off date movement during the remainder of FY-2005 depends on the extent of future visa demand. No specific predictions are possible at this time.
* February & March 2005 Report: EW Retrogression, Cutoff Date and Background Explanation:
o During fiscal year 2005, 5,000 visa numbers are provided by law for use in the Employment-based Third preference “Other Worker” (EW) category. This annual limit is divided into twelve approximately equal monthly allotments. If there are sufficient numbers to satisfy all demand, the category can be considered "current". Whenever demand exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment in a particular month, the category must be considered to be “oversubscribed” and a visa availability cut-off date is established.
o Continued heavy applicant demand, primarily for CIS adjustment of status cases, is expected to require the oversubscription of the EW category in the near future. This action will be necessary in order to hold EW number use within the FY-2005 annual numerical limit. The establishment of an EW cut-off date beginning as early as March cannot be ruled out, and would apply to all chargeability areas.
* May & June 2005 Report: EW Retrogression, Unavailability and Background Explanation in May and June 2005:
o The imposition of that date has not had the desired effect and the level of demand remains excessive. Therefore, it is likely that the cut-off date will retrogress or numbers become “unavailable” in the near future.
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