Nuke, Maybe it is the impending holiday, but you haven't read my earlier post in detail. Instead of repeating, let me just paraphrase:
[1] You can't assume that PD can be retained. If it can be, hell ya, head for heaven!
[2] PERM & backlogged (so called because of the log in the back effect) ARE processed separately
[3] The hypothetical new PERM case could be adjudicated [before/after/simultaneously with] the unswitched backlogged case from 05.2003
[4] Now IF retrogression is around for your friend's status (EB2/EB3), it does not matter if her PERM LC got approved earlier. She would still need to wait (depending on the retrogression cut-off date) till earlier PDs get by her - that is what I mean by "LC approval is just a pitstop on the stairway to heaven - the heaven really is 485 approval"
[5] IF retrogression is NOT an issue for her case, her earlier approved PERM (even with a later PD) would be pushed ahead of the earlier-dated unapproved PDs - the Switch Strategy wins in this case only
[6] Like MDWatch said, I would not bet against Aprlc2002's mid-range/long-range forecasts
[7] The best case being [5], she would get ahead just by a few months. On the flip side, there are risks to be weighed. Personally I would stay at PBEC given a 05.2003 PD. But its your call.
[8] If your question is about PERM as in Perming hair, ignore [1] thru' [7]
nuculer said:
I thought PERM and backlogged cases were done separately? Are you saying that if one does not retain his PD during the conversion, he might have his PERM case adjudicated *after* the backlogged cases? That seems weird to me.
In any case, her recruitment has *not* been done yet. I think we're working on the assumption that her PD can be retained. We're concerned that PERM might have a higher likelihood of rejection, that somehow TR is more likely to approve her LC. Any thoughts on this?
Can you tell me what that estimate is based on? Is it based on his spreadsheet? Or some insider info?
Thanks!
-N.