Order Pattern at TSC

Comparision SRC02-176 and SRC02-135

Thanks goastro.

If we have the complete data for SRC01-248, we can say more. Let me discuss about the result of SRC02-176 first, as it is complete. Comparision between different dates would be interesting to have some ideas about the time dependence of the processing pattern.

As compared to the last time there are two changes. That means 1% was touched in last two weeks. The probability is approximately the same as SRC02-135. We can verify this by more data. I wonder if the number is higher for SRC02.
The probability of RFE is also the same.

The comparision of approvals is 8:19
The comparision of the sum of FP's ( sent and resumed) and Approvals: 24 : 46

So the probability of a touched file to be approved is almost the same ( SRC02-135 has a little better chance to be approved if touched).

It seems to me that, SRC02-176 has missed the wave of FP's in 2002 ( from April-July).

Based on the wave of FP's in 2003 ( April-June...), if we have the approval data of 2001 in 2002 we can extrapolate the average approval time for the files in 2002.

Assume that the process neither improved nor slowed down, I hope in August-November 2003 we will see a lot of approvals for SRC02-135 ( min 15-20 cases ) and SRC02-176.( min 6-8 cases).

However, the estimation is very rough based only on two dates and cannot be very reliable.

---------------------------------------


May 17 Run in July, 2003

Approved/Completed Count 24 ( 8%)
FP sent Count 34 (12%)
Misc Count 9 (3%)
Received Count 202 (70%)
Resumed/FP recvd Count 12 ( 4%)
RFE recvd Count 2 (1%)
Transferred Count 5 (2%)
Grand Count 288

Approved Stats:
5/03 : 1 4/03 : 1
12/02 : 1 11/02 : 1 10/02: 9 9/02: 10
8/02 : 1

FP stats

Sent:

6/03 : 34
Resumed:
07/03 : 1 06/03: 3 12/02: 3
11/02: 2 8/02: 1 7/02: 2

Touched in 2 weeks : 2
 
vili

Did you see approvals after FP? At least that was the pattern last year.

When we assume that the file gets assigned to officer for adjudication for approval, there could be two triggers,

1. FP received
2. RFE response received by TSC

Here we assume that the officers who issue EAD and AP are different and do not approve 485. (otherwise they would approve a long pending application instead of approving EAD or AP. I am already into third AP and soon going to apply for 4th)

Do you see any approval pattern based on FP received or RFE?

After how many days on average a case gets approved after FP?

After how many days on average a case gets approved after RFE?

Any observations?
 
Vili & goastros

I understand the pain in collecting data and running stats on Excel. If it is taking too long for you guys to run macro (36 hours!!!) then I suggest you use third party statistics tools available on MS Excel.

2 years back, I had taken a statistics course which had a text book "Data Analysis & Decision Making with MS Excel" by Albright, Winston, Zappe. The book has a CD for StatPro a third party software which runs in conjunction with Excel. We used it heavily during our course and was very helpful. The software comes free with the book (and may be downloaded from their site)

Regards.
 
LongGC

Did you see approvals after FP? At least that was the pattern last year.

When we assume that the file gets assigned to officer for adjudication for approval, there could be two triggers,

1. FP received
2. RFE response received by TSC

Here we assume that the officers who issue EAD and AP are different and do not approve 485. (otherwise they would approve a long pending application instead of approving EAD or AP. I am already into third AP and soon going to apply for 4th)

Do you see any approval pattern based on FP received or RFE?

After how many days on average a case gets approved after FP?

After how many days on average a case gets approved after RFE?

Any observations?



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14th July 2003 12:31 PM



longGC
Senior Member

Registered: May 2002
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Posts: 273
Vili & goastros
I understand the pain in collecting data and running stats on Excel. If it is taking too long for you guys to run macro (36 hours!!!) then I suggest you use third party statistics tools available on MS Excel.

2 years back, I had taken a statistics course which had a text book "Data Analysis & Decision Making with MS Excel" by Albright, Winston, Zappe. The book has a CD for StatPro a third party software which runs in conjunction with Excel. We used it heavily during our course and was very helpful. The software comes free with the book (and may be downloaded from their site)

Regards.
 
LongGC

I will try to answer your questions.

At the moment, I have very few data. Essentially, only SRC02-135 and SRC02-176 are completed. It is really easy to run the macro for these two days now ( it take me 15 minutes). Therefore, I need helps from all of you. I see somebody complaining that no update around his number. If the update rate is 1% and he takes only few cases around his number then it is natural that he cannot see updates. Let us have the whole day results. It took me 4 days to run the macro for SRC02-135 and now it is very easy to update.

As we don't have history of the cases, but from the wave of FP's last year and the wave of approvals, I can estimate the approval usually comes 2-4 months after FP's. RFE is low ( 1%) at least for SRC02 ( because the filing was fresh ???).

I assumed that when the file has "FP sent" the file probably is assigned to an officer. There are few arguments for it ( these arguments can be confirmed or denied if I have more data):
I observed the "FP sent" is updated to "FP resumed", when a lot of cases even don't have "FP sent". So the scenario is likely as follows: the case is assigned to an officer, he does not have FP result and generates FP notice and updates the case to "FP sent".
After that he is waiting for the result and updates immediately to "resumed" when he received the result.
I also tends to think that the cases "resumed FP" have been also assigned, as a lot of cases don't get updated after FP was taken.

I don't think FP received because it is triggred by an assignment. I see strong arguments that FP's are generated independently, as there are many cases no "FP sent" nor "resumed" status was updated after FP is sent or completed.
Becaused of that I used the term "touched file" for "FP sent" "resumed" and "approved" ( not necessary the same as "assigned").

For RFE I assumed it is assigned.


Q: Do you see any approval pattern based on FP received or RFE?
A: I need more data and follow them a while to see that. I think that after RFE the approval follows very quickly if approved at all.

Q: After how many days on average a case gets approved after FP?
A: From the last year data for 02, I can estimate 2-4 months. Ocasionally, 1 month or less. For this year I don't know and I want to have more data to estimate. Also, I am interested in 01 data in the last year and this year too. Please post as many full day results as much as possible.

Q: After how many days on average a case gets approved after RFE?
A: After FP you cannot say for sure, but after RFE I see the file is approved very soon. this fact support my assumption that FP's are not 100% triggered by an assignment but RFE is.

Please encourage all participants to post one or couple full day results and we will have many valuable info to share with each other, instead of complaining and saying "no updates" or "TSC sucks"....( no use of it)
 
You can count me in to help with this analysis. Currently I am recollecting the data for SRC-02-160.

I agree it would be a good idea to work with Advait’s team in the other forum. They are also doing a great job.
 
Vili & goastros

In my case, TSC denied my 485 without issuing any RFE or NOID (Notice of Intent to Deny). It was a straight denial. I have filed MTR (Motion to Reopen/Reconsider).

Will this trigger an event, I mean my file gets assigned to officer?

[I changed job (using AC21 106c ) 2 years after filing 485 but did not inform BCIS about the new job. Former company informed BCIS about the layoff and they revoked I-140 followed by 485 denial]

I have seen that 485 denials and MTRs are rare.

Please comment.
 
what's the point

Just a general question - What is the point in this analysis?
None of these activities would change the process in TSC and hence what is the point really?
 
longGC

I think obviously to get denial, your case was assigned to an officer who denied it and generated a denial notice.

However, if you can reopen it, it will be in better position as compared with the files which have not been touched. I think with the new "memo", you will be OK.
 
redhat

I agree with you that by doing analysis we cannot change anything. The same point with the question why we are here and talking about TSC sucks.

The only thing we can do is to understand the process while waiting. Even so modest the point is, I am afraid we can do very little. However, I want to understand.
 
excel sheet collections

Guys,

Fill free to repost any result you know on this thread and we can discuss and Modified run them when we want. I think discussions will be more intesting but only after we collect enough file and follow them for awhile to see the time evolution.

Also fill free to post the results posted on this thread elsewhere.
And also the discussion elsewhere.

Malacho: I hope you will post your result soon. Please also find some 01 results. That will give infos about 02 processing as well.
 
redhat,

We all know this analysis will not change anything at TSC. All we are doing is just trying to get our own conclusions.
 
vili,

I will post my results as soon as I complete them and start running some 2001 cases. I will be overseas for the next four days but will resume this work once I get back.
 
Manolacho

Thanks. I am looking to do SRC01-135 ( March 30, 2001). All contributors are welcome. If you guys find any Excel files please post.
 
Villi, were you able to get rest of the date for SRC01248?
The guy who has more data for this date is vettipuls.
he had masked the SRC in his excelsheet with Asterisks.
vettipuls, if you read this, can you please give us the unmasked excelsheet.
Manolacho, welcome back ( didn't see you post here in a while, so welcome back).
We are missing May01, he too has collected some excel data.
 
vili

To vili,

My case was NOT assigned to an officer. Ex employer informed BCIS about layoff (but did not ask them to revoke I-140). BCIS then denied I-485.

(After I filed MTR,) BCIS will issue me a SRC # to track its progress. The outcome could be any one of these (in the order of best scenario to worst scenario),

1. My file gets attention and approval.

2. My I-485 gets reinstated and await goes on.

3. I get RFE for paystubs, W2, tax returns etc.

4. My case gets transferred to local BCIS.

5. My file is transferred to AAU for further processing.

I hope that now at least my file gets assigned to an officer.

Sorry that my info in this thread does not help you directly in statistics. But I would like to add my case in your research as MTRs are not frequent.

Q1. Out of the above possibilities, which one has high probability?

Q2. You said in your observation that after RFE you saw immediate approval. What time frame are you taking about from RFE response to approval?
 
To longGC

What is your legal status while your MTR is pending ?

I guess you are working using EAD. (??) Is it possible to renew your EAD ?

Please let us know.
 
Misc LongGC & Goastros

LongGC:

I cannot answer all your questions. I can speculate only.
I hope BCIS when denied your case has assigned ( touched) it to an officer who took resposibility to review it carefully and made decision.
It may be possible that the denial was not triggered by an assignment but by the notice of your ex employer. It would not be fair just to generate a denial notice blindly based on your employer notice without reviewing it.

I guess if your MTR is opened, it should come back to the same officer first. So, you case should have immediate attention.
I saw approvals less than 1 month after RFE, but ussualy couple months. I don't have any data to study MTR's.

Goastros:

The SRC01-248 made me blocked by the asterisks ( I did not
see asterisks when I tried to run it). So I don't have the full day data. If you have any file, please post.
 
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