October 2003 I-140/I-485 Tracker

W

W2K

Member
Just wanted to see te october cases and who they are getting approved.


LC Nov 2002 -AD July 2003
140 Oct 28 2003 - AD June 2004
485 Oct 28 2003 - Not approved
FP1 Oct 28 2004
485 LUD 11/04, 11/15
 
FYI, there's a consolidated tracker (http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=118163&page=138&pp=15 -- check post #2051 or later for the latest spreadsheet) for tracking all 2003 cases. There's about 36 October 2003 cases currently, 6 are approved, 1 is transferred.

My own ND is 10/23/03 and I've been tracking 196 cases for that day by scanning them on a regular basis (post #40 in http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=148288&page=3). Currently, for that day, there are 16 approvals (8.16%) and 8 transfers (4.08%).

For myself (and my wife -- same ND), our I-485 LUDs changed on 11/30/04 (no change to message) but no action so far (LUD for 2 kids stayed unchanged). My name check is apparently done (according to email reply to a fax that I sent back in September) and our FP has been done for a couple months now. I didn't find out if wife's name check was done yet but presumably this wouldn't hold up my (primary) case.

ETA
 
X2K said:
Just wanted to see te october cases and who they are getting approved.


LC Nov 2002 -AD July 2003
140 Oct 28 2003 - AD June 2004
485 Oct 28 2003 - Not approved
FP1 Oct 28 2004
485 LUD 11/04, 11/15
Click to expand...


Mine is almost similar..to your case.
140/485 Oct 22 2003 - AD June 6,2004
FP1 Oct 29,2004
485 LUD 11/04(FP received),11/30(No msg change)

Awaiting when my day will come!! Let me know if you hear something......
 
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still waiting how many days it will take....... can any one help, at what stage is 485 come to....


Mine is:
no rfe
140/485/EAD ND Nov 07 2003
EAD AD Mar 03 2004
140 AD June 22,2004
FP1 Nov 03,2004
485 LUD 11/10,11/15(resumed):confused:
 
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My ND is in October too, havent checked the name check yet though.
Planning to go through the name check thread and check up on that.

My I-140 was approved in 2001 but i guess that doesnt matter now and they are going by I-485 RD/ND in my case.

My best guess is that they are just starting to look at October cases, so it might be the end of the month before we get the good news ( hopefully) :)
 
Any updates for October 2003 approvals? Anybody at all? :confused: :(

Hopefully the retrogression should not affect me since my labor was approved on 08/28/2000? :confused:

ETA-GC,

Any ideas on how 10/21/03 is doing under the scanner?
 
ND 10/23/2003. Got transfered to NYC :(

I and my wife's I485 transfered to NYC
(ND 10/23/03, FP 9/15/04, LUD changed 9/23, resumed,
12/08/04 Transfered).
I'm very depressed. I heard that in general, only about 2% got transfered. But I found on 10/23/03 ND tracker, among the about 200 sampled cases, there are 16 approvals, 8 transfers (ours included?). That is about 33.3% transfer.
 
gc66 said:
I and my wife's I485 transfered to NYC
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear that -- hopefully your case will get attention soon...

Do you have any ideas as to why your case might have been transferred? Were you married recently / any reason for the VSC to want to check up on the validity of your marriage?

You have the same ND as I do btw...


gc66 said:
I heard that in general, only about 2% got transfered. But I found on 10/23/03 ND tracker, among the about 200 sampled cases, there are 16 approvals, 8 transfers (ours included?). That is about 33.3% transfer.
Click to expand...

No -- according to the (very complete) scans that nemessis has done, many cases are being transferred -- as many as 50% for some days / months.

Your math above is wrong though -- the 8 transfers are out of 196 cases total = 4.08% so far. The 2003 tracker only has 2.0% transferred so far.

For some reason, among the cases in the 2003 tracker and among the 10/23/03 and 08/25/03 cases that I've been scanning, the transfer rates (so far) have been much lower. We're not sure if this is just a random occurrence or if there is a reason for it... I'd love to hear an explanation for this discrepancy if anyone has one. I used to think it was because the scans included family-based cases but apparently these don't even go through the regional service centers and this wouldn't explain why my smaller scans aren't picking up as many transfers (which seem to be spread throughout the possible range of case numbers)...

ETA
 
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ETA-GC said:
Sorry to hear that -- hopefully your case will get attention soon...

Do you have any ideas as to why your case might have been transferred? Were you married recently / any reason for the VSC to want to check up on the validity of your marriage?

ETA
Click to expand...

We married (in foreign country), divorced(in the U.S), married again (U.S). All these happened before we applied for Greencard.
In the I485, we didn't include the certificate for divorce and re-marrage (thought it is redundant). Now I realize that this might be problem. Is this going to be a serious problem?
 
gc66 said:
We married (in foreign country), divorced(in the U.S), married again (U.S). All these happened before we applied for Greencard.
In the I485, we didn't include the certificate for divorce and re-marrage (thought it is redundant). Now I realize that this might be problem. Is this going to be a serious problem?
Click to expand...


Is the marriage with the same person or different person?
 
ETA-GC said:
No -- according to the (very complete) scans that nemessis has done, many cases are being transferred -- as many as 50% for some days / months.

Your math above is wrong though -- the 8 transfers are out of 196 cases total = 4.08% so far. The 2003 tracker only has 2.0% transferred so far.

ETA
Click to expand...

There are different ways to look at the data. We can also put it this way:
of the 196 cases with ND on 10/23/2004, 8 cases have been transfered, which amounts to 33.3% of the cases that have been processed so far. This 33.3% should be a relatively stable number, which will help people determine the chance of their case geting approved (2/3), or transfered (1/3).

The 4.08% will increase all the way until all the 196 cases finished, and if the trasnfered rate is still at 1/3, then we should consider 10/23/04 a lucky day, comparing with the 50% transfered in general.
To read data in this way, we can psychologically prepared for being transfered,(i was sooooooo depressed at first, until my lawyer told me it is very common), at the same time wish us a good chance of luck.
 
gc66 said:
There are different ways to look at the data. We can also put it this way:
of the 196 cases with ND on 10/23/2004, 8 cases have been transfered, which amounts to 33.3% of the cases that have been processed so far. This 33.3% should be a relatively stable number, which will help people determine the chance of their case geting approved (2/3), or transfered (1/3).

The 4.08% will increase all the way until all the 196 cases finished, and if the trasnfered rate is still at 1/3, then we should consider 10/23/04 a lucky day, comparing with the 50% transfered in general.
To read data in this way, we can psychologically prepared for being transfered,(i was sooooooo depressed at first, until my lawyer told me it is very common), at the same time wish us a good chance of luck.
Click to expand...

I see what you are saying and that makes sense except that it's probably not accurate to extrapolate the few (early) samples that we've seen so far for 10/23/03 cases (especially because IMO the activity that we've seen to date has mainly been for "easy" cases so probably fewer are being transferred than is normally the case).

When nemessis and others have said that roughly 50% of cases are being transferred, that's out of all cases received.

Your way of looking at the stats is somewhat more depressing (but probably more relevant) :(. If you take the data that nemessis has and apply your approach, the odds of being transferred vs approved (or denied) is much higher than the % transfers out of all cases. See the attached sheet...

ETA
 
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Approved.........Oct'2003 - kmunna

kmunna

Approved.........Oct'2003

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hello Friends,

Today I got 4 emails saying Mine and my wife's cases are approved on December 12, 2004.

First of all Thanks God who bring this moment for me and my family, not to say many many thanks to Mr. Rajiv Khanna for his great contribution toward immigration community.

also friends like you all reader and writer who gave me hope reading messages and posting your LUD's and updated time to time.

Tricker......I have applied to renew my wife's Advance Parol, USCIS got it on 12/10/2004 and we are approved....thanks god again

Good Luck to all of you.
__________________
Priority Date: 03/27/2003
I140/I485 ND: 10/28/03
I140 AD: 6/8/04
FP1 10/29/2004
LUD: 11/4 (FP received), 11/8 no message change
AD: ???
 
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