Number of pending N-400 applications continues to decline

Bobsmyth said:
Looking at the latest USCIS figures, receipting of N-400 applications have declined 46% in December compared to last December, and overall pending applications are slowly decreasing, however remain above 1 million.

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/N-400%20NATURALIZATION%20BENEFITS_December07.pdf
Click to expand...

Thanks for this link, Bobsmyth, these are great stats! Gives a more realistic picture than than the manipulated statistics being cited in press releases and in Gonzalez's testimony to congress.

It's interesting that the trend was already well underway by June - 90% increase in receipts and 67% increase in overall cases pending - and yet June applicants at many DOs are still being processed within 6-7 months. Though the cumulative effect of pending applications will surely be worse for July and post-July applicants, it makes me think that we may well beat the "16-18 month" projection.
 
I'm doing the math, based on my own application at the beginning of October.

I'm starting in May 2007, as applicants from that period and prior have generally experienced normal processing times. In the month of May, there were already 743,000 cases pending. Presumably USCIS was able to cope with this load (most of the currently one million pending cases pre-existed the surge) and produce normal turnaround.

If you look at the actual number of receipts from the beginning of May to the end of September that exceed receipts from those months in the previous year, the excess workload (for my place in the queue) is approximately 157,000 cases. This excess should account for any additional processing time beyond what USCIS was able to maintain the previous year.

Post-surge (August through December) they've been processing (approving or denying) on average 69,000 N-400 cases per month. (This number could go up with planned staffing increases.)

At that rate, somebody who applied when I did should expect, on average, 68 additional days processing time beyond the previous norms. ((157/69)*30)

Of course, this doesn't take into account differences between DOs, being stuck in name check, etc. But it does make one question the estimates USCIS is giving.
 
Very interesting. I have some questions:
1) How people get denied? If the denial is the applicant fault I should say we as applicant are not very organize and responsible therefore we can expect USCIS to do such a nice job.
2) From these 1,000,000 application pending by December 2007, isn't it right that around 400,000 are stuck in name check process? Based on FBI report. So there are only around 700,000 moving applications? Which they don't know if they will trap in the name check or not?
3) Do you guys estimate how many people we have on this board which have applied for citizenship and their application is STILL pending? 1000 people?

If they were to increase the application fee immediately, like decide today and force tomorrow, I think the total people who are applying for citizenship would decrease really bad.

As always Bobsmyth, thank you for all of your effort!
 
Thanks for the info, Bobsmyth. This is yet another thing that helps maintain a positive outlook.
 
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