New York SESA Tracker

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JustWatching said:
Hi all,

I did some research on how they pick the dates for retrogression. The law actually gives the State Department discretion on how to select these dates. This means that they could in fact check what DOL has in terms of PDs or what USCIS has in terms of pending cases.

BEGIN SPECULATION SECTION

I have a feeling that the dates have been set based on the oldest cases in the queue, however I do believe that cases prior to April 2001 are few. I would expect the dates to move upto these dates in the next three months.

The State Department although publishes monthly bulletins do their allocations by quarters so I wouldn't expect (although possible) to see the dates move until the January '06 bulletin.

By April '06 I think another 35,000 visa numbers should be allocated. I think that will cover demand for 2001 cases. So by the summer of next year 2001 people that are currently in retrogression are likely to be able to submit I-485.

END SPECULATION SECTION

Ahalem - You mentioned your H1 has expired. Is your I-94 still valid. Make sure it is, you can do H1 extensions for as many years as necessary.



You are way tooo hopefull i guess we are finished once and for all :) cut of date is 98 01 !!!! i guess in another few months it will retrogress to 1700 !!!
:)
 
Hi Just watching ,

Very neat analysis , but I have 2 questions:
When you say for example 2001 will be processed in 2nd qtr 2006 , would that include all nationalities, would it be different for China and India?

Also DOS has number of visa per year, I wish I know it but would the 134K of cases for 2001 will fit under that or might extend to 2007 ?

JustWatching said:
Based on page 51 and 52 of the attached document here are some thoughts on my part.

Facts

80,000 I-140 applications were made in 2004.

I-485 is for both family and employment adjustment of status so we cannot tell from the charts how many are employment vs. family.

Assumptions

Up to December 2004, Priority Dates were current so I will assume that anyone that applied for I-140 also applied for I-485.

Based on USCIS progress reports MOST applications prior to 2004 have been adjudicated.

80,000 I-485 applications were made in 2004 along with the I-140 applications. Half have been approved

80,000 I-140/I-485 applications were submitted in 2005. This number is probably on the high side since retrogression had taken place and very few approvals came from BPC in early 2005.

Therefore ~120,000 I-485 employment based applications are pending at USCIS.

The ~120,000 applications are for PD between 1998 - 2005.

We have no idea what the distribution of nationalities is in either the USCIS backlog or the BPCs.

We have no idea of the distribution of cases by PD. In the spreadsheet I have tried to estimate.

Conclusions

See the attached spreadsheet. Line 12 of the spreadsheet represents when that PD could be processed.

The fallacy of this conclusion is that some countries will be more oversubscribed than others. I have no way of estimating this.

Comments

Thoughts and comments are welcome.
 
Just watching,

Its fun to see your analysis and I sure admire your optimism.

Just to give you some food for thought:

Lets say a quick fix happens like last time and visa numbers are recaptured - assume this happens in mid 2006. Subtract the 50000 quota for nurses. With the remaining numbers - can you analyze the PD progress?
 
Waitingtoo - Hope its not a typo

waitingtoo said:
just got an email confirmation for seventh year extension. It seems that they have extended by two years. Anyone else had a similar typo...


Can you please check with your attorney? If its two year extension I am glad looking at things it doesnt look like we may get to I485 in one year and i hate to apply for extension every year.
 
Re: Retrogression Question

If someone who has an Indian passport but is born in a different country, can he file for I485 if the country of birth has a current I 485 status.
 
PERM believer said:
Just watching,

Its fun to see your analysis and I sure admire your optimism.

Just to give you some food for thought:

Lets say a quick fix happens like last time and visa numbers are recaptured - assume this happens in mid 2006. Subtract the 50000 quota for nurses. With the remaining numbers - can you analyze the PD progress?


I actually took down my "analysis". Unfortunately there was a huge flaw in it. I was doing a 1 to 1 on I-485 apps to visa numbers when in fact dependents also use up visa numbers.

Anyway, I was just trying to help.
 
Since some folks asked for this

People sent me private messages asking for the draft to send Phily Backlog Center for FIFO, here you go:

"
FAX# (484) 270-1600


To Whom It May Concern:

“All cases, regardless of whether they were from a Regional Office or from a SWA, will be processed according to FIFO, once entered into PBLS”-- quoted from the “Backlog Center Q&A” posted on the Department of Labor website.

First In First Out rule is fair. So we all expect this rule will be followed. But we are seeing many cases approved with a much later priority date than those cases that are still not completely entered into the PBLS. For example, many New York cases filed with SWA in year 2001 have not even received the 45-day letter yet, while cases filed in year 2002 and sometimes in year 2003 have been approved. The practice is clearly in violation of the FIFO rule, and it is causing people to lose faith in the system, as a result rumors are spreading among the immigration communities.

In the just released immigrant visa bulletin by the Department of State, cut-off dates are set for I-485 application. Some people, benefiting from the “random processing” and receiving their LC even though they have a later priority date, are rushing to file I-140/I-485 before October 1, 2005. Many not so lucky applicants, even with a much earlier priority date, can not do it because their labor certification applications are still in the backlog center waiting to be processed. These unlucky aliens are deprived of the benefit of EAD and Advance Parole which come with I-485 application. Is this fair??


Since nearly all cases now have been at least partially entered, we urge that priority date should be identified and FIFO rule be strictly followed from now on.


Thank you for your attention to this important matter.




CC: Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Charles Schumer
CC: Senator Jon Corzine, Senator Frank Lautenberg


Movement For A Fair Immigration Treatment
"
 
RIR Labor Cert. Approved (PD 10/2001)

RIR Labor Certif. approved!

My attorney just informed me that my labor certification has been approved. My PD is October 23 (or 18th, not quite sure), 2001.

I have been following this thread for it feels like years and I want to thank all the participants for their invaluable information.

Keep up your spirits, there is progress...
 
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Question for Eskimo

Congrats!

What about the 45-day letter? Did you ever get it?

eskimo said:
RIR Labor Certif. approved!

My attorney just informed me that my labor certification has been approved. My PD is October 23 (or 18th, not quite sure), 2001.

I have been following this thread for it feels like years and I want to thank all the participants for their invaluable information.

Keep up your spirits, there is progress...
 
Response to zgubi

zgubi said:
Congrats!

What about the 45-day letter? Did you ever get it?

I did not get a 45 day letter. Back in Sept. 2004, before the backlog offices went into effect, my attorney had received an RFE from NYS, and replied to it. Since that date, I heard nothing until receiving the approval 2 days ago.

For what it's worth, my attorney had said that they were not sending out 45-day letters for those labor certifications that had been in mid-review before the backlog offices were formed--they were kind of set aside (or stayed at the Regional office) and now they are working through them without a 45-day letter.
 
eskimo said:
I did not get a 45 day letter. Back in Sept. 2004, before the backlog offices went into effect, my attorney had received an RFE from NYS, and replied to it. Since that date, I heard nothing until receiving the approval 2 days ago.

For what it's worth, my attorney had said that they were not sending out 45-day letters for those labor certifications that had been in mid-review before the backlog offices were formed--they were kind of set aside (or stayed at the Regional office) and now they are working through them without a 45-day letter.

Was the letter mailed to you from the backlog center or the NY DOL?

Thanks and congratulations
 
helloo gurus

Hello Justwatching and the group.

My application in the NY Dol for the labor certification was filled on Dec 2001 and on friday i got a call from my lawyer that they have recd a 45 day letter on my case.

Just want to share this update with all of you, one question how long will it take to get a approval on the labor after the 45 day letter.

Please advice

Best Regards
 
saburi said:
Hello Justwatching and the group.

My application in the NY Dol for the labor certification was filled on Dec 2001 and on friday i got a call from my lawyer that they have recd a 45 day letter on my case.

Just want to share this update with all of you, one question how long will it take to get a approval on the labor after the 45 day letter.

Please advice

Best Regards

What is hte exact date ? Mine is 31 Jan 2002. Still waiting.
 
LaborPains said:
What is hte exact date ? Mine is 31 Jan 2002. Still waiting.


Mine is Jan 4 2002.Still waiting..

Is it possible to get 3 years of H1B extn if my labor gets approved.
Is it possible to file for I-140 and get a EAD for me and my spouse ?
 
Response to JustWatching

JustWatching said:
Was the letter mailed to you from the backlog center or the NY DOL?

Thanks and congratulations
My lawyer said it was not mailed from the backlog center. Good luck to you and everyone waiting patiently.
 
45 Day Letter Recd. 6/22/2002 PD.

My lawyer recd. the 45 Day Letter today from the Philly Backlog center. They want evidence that the company I work for is located in NY and it's a bonafide entity. Strange request since all of this info had been sent before but atleast now I have a reference number of some sort.
 
tiesto said:
My lawyer recd. the 45 Day Letter today from the Philly Backlog center. They want evidence that the company I work for is located in NY and it's a bonafide entity. Strange request since all of this info had been sent before but atleast now I have a reference number of some sort.
This gives me some hope. My PD is 31 Jan 2002. Perhaps even i will recieve the 45 day letter soon.
 
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