I posted the message below in the Philly BEC but I wanted to add specific comments about NY....
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A POTENTIAL SCENARIO – TO BE CLEAR: I MADE THIS UP. I DIDN’T READ IT ANYWHERE AND IT IS ENDORSED BY NO ONE. IT DESCRIBES WHAT I THINK MAY HAPPEN. DATES ARE MY ESTIMATES
1) San Francisco and Philadelphia Regional entered into the system. - DONE
2) San Francisco and Philadelphia Regional 45-day letters being sent out. - NOW
3) Letters start coming back. Create PD FIFO of both SF and Philly Region - NOW
4) Atlanta Regional being entered into the system - NOW
5) San Francisco and Philadelphia Regional 45-day letters completely sent out. - DONE
6) Begin processing of oldest SF and Philly Regional cases – mid February 2005
7) Atlanta Regional cases entry completed. – end of February 2005
8) All SF and Philly Regions letters received and added to PD FIFO – March 2005
9) Atlanta Regional letters sent out. – March 2005
10) SWA cases begin entering into the system – March 2005
11) Atlanta Regional letters come back – April 2005
12) Processing now includes Philly, SF and Atlanta regions processing oldest cases first – April 2005
13) SWA letters begin to be sent out – April 2005
14) SWA letters begin to come back and added to PD FIFO – May 2005
15) Processing is now by PD FIFO which includes Philly, SF, Atlanta Regions and SWAs that have been entered into the system. – May 2005
16) All SWAs entered into the system – March 2006
17) All letters sent out. – April 2006
18) Processing is now true PD FIFO – all states all regions. – April 2006
Conclusions:
a) Some Philly, SF and Atlanta regional cases will get lucky and get processed ahead of some national (at least those that are bound to Philly BEC) older cases. As of May 2005 (IN MY PRETEND SCENARIO), older cases from SWAs such as Connecticut, DC, Georgia, Maryland, NJ, NY, and Alabama would jump to the front of the line.
b) If they data enter SWA cases from oldest to newest, true PD FIFO would be achieved by May 2005 (IN MY PRETEND SCENARIO)
DISCLAIMER: IT IS JUST A THEORY SO DON’T TAKE IT PERSONAL AND PLEASE COMMENT.
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So to NY what does this mean? (Who knows, they change directions every day and I have been wrong before but here is my guess anyway):
I think 2001 RIR cases from NY will begin to be processed sometime in the fall. This assumes about 10,000 - 15,000 regional cases getting processed ahead of us and 30,000 SWA cases getting processed ahead of us.