Mystery about Asia-DV 2014

[luck_boy]

December Vb is out still we have just 2650 in our cutoff. why this time Asia's case number moving so slow?last year there were very very few people above 10000 case number so last year cutoff was slow but as we see this year the case number above 10000 very common even we are seeing 22000 and 20000 case number some claiming 27000.. so to cover as many selectee as the kcc can cutoff should move atleast 1500+ every months, even though every logic every claims are just failed by each month VB.. Do anyone have any idea what the mystery is looming over Asia....

 

[luck_boy]

Plz is there anyone to give any view in this regard.......

 

[SusieQQQ]

Firstly, it's not just Asia who has higher numbers than last year, it's everyone.
This discussion has happened many times on this forum.
They are not going to go through more numbers a month just to get through all the selectees, because there is a physical limit to how many people the embassies can interview, and because even though there are more selectees they still have an overall 50000 cap. They came close to 50000 last year it seems, so there could be an argument for slightly faster (more likely to see next year than now) but almost certainly there will be high case numbers who don't get interviews this fiscal year.
No mystery.

 

[Kayend]

Firstly, we don't know how many selectees are under case 2650. How many holes in it? How many selectees per case #? In DV13, there is a case where a single case # has 10 selectees. That's mean one case # will take 10 visa allocation. So, when case # moving slower than last year did not tell us the whole story. Yes, we have 27k case # issued as far as but what we don't know is that the number of holes between case #, would it be more holes created for case # after 10k, which mean we have higher density of case # below 10k than above 10k. Why I am saying this because I believe Iran creating more holes for case # above 10k with the assumption that Iran has reached to it country limit during selection below 10k. So when any selection after 10k from Iran, it will reject it hence hole get created. I was trying to get the max case # for Iran to verify my theory but so far I couldn't get any. So far, I didn't see any Iranian case # above 10k from Iranian site.

 

[bpan73]

Firstly, it's not just Asia who has higher numbers than last year, it's everyone.
This discussion has happened many times on this forum.
They are not going to go through more numbers a month just to get through all the selectees, because there is a physical limit to how many people the embassies can interview, and because even though there are more selectees they still have an overall 50000 cap. They came close to 50000 last year it seems, so there could be an argument for slightly faster (more likely to see next year than now) but almost certainly there will be high case numbers who don't get interviews this fiscal year.
No mystery.

That means, Asian case numbers above 10000 are at risk?

 

[oskarson]

thank you (Kayend and SusieQQQ) a lot for your valuable opinion!i want to add a question; In your opinion what case number is the border for safe and danger this year?i appreciate the opinion of Britsimon,as well!

 

[Sloner]

some countries with a large number of winners. They inhibit the cutt-off. Also the little holes with 0-10000.

 

[luck_boy]

Thanks lot to all of you but also Kayend u exactly have kept the same view that I was expecting ya Its true we have seen 6000 selectee from Iran but couldnot see anyone claiming above 10,000.. even though there might be much holes after 10000 but country like Srilanka has been reporting high cases of 22000 and even its number is quite considerable as it is third in asia this year so this slow movement may hamper them,.. and seeing the movement of the cutoff like this it may take several months to reach 10000.. and in compare to last year if follow exactly same pattern the it is very hard to interview all cases above 10000 in 2 or even 3 months.. one major thing is this year from Nepal there are lots of people above 10000 to 14000 in between these number the cases are very dense so.. ㅡmight be there in any chances for limit in countries like Nepal and Iran...?

 

[Kayend]

Thanks lot to all of you but also Kayend u exactly have kept the same view that I was expecting ya Its true we have seen 6000 selectee from Iran but couldnot see anyone claiming above 10,000.. even though there might be much holes after 10000 but country like Srilanka has been reporting high cases of 22000 and even its number is quite considerable as it is third in asia this year so this slow movement may hamper them,.. and seeing the movement of the cutoff like this it may take several months to reach 10000.. and in compare to last year if follow exactly same pattern the it is very hard to interview all cases above 10000 in 2 or even 3 months.. one major thing is this year from Nepal there are lots of people above 10000 to 14000 in between these number the cases are very dense so.. ㅡmight be there in any chances for limit in countries like Nepal and Iran...?

What I believe is when Iran scenario did happened, it will have special cut off for them to balance up the allocation of visa. If they implement the special cut off for Iran, the case # will speed up drastically (assuming 6000 selectees of Iranian are between 0-10000 case #). You could even see Asia jump to 10,000 case # as early as Mar 2014. Nepal is not under special cut off because someone reported that one Nepalis has a case # of 27,000, so no balancing needed.

One thing I noticed is that no one country more than 6100 selectees and we have 10 countries with 6000-6100. Even you check all the history of DV, no one country has more than 6100. So I think that is the max selectees one country and go. And usually, those special cut off come from country that has selectees ranging from 5500 - 6100.

 

[Kayend]

thank you (Kayend and SusieQQQ) a lot for your valuable opinion!i want to add a question; In your opinion what case number is the border for safe and danger this year?i appreciate the opinion of Britsimon,as well!

If in DV13 need to interview all selectees (16k) to fulfilled the regional quota since it goes current for the last 2 months. We do a simple calculation of getting the DV14 range of case # within the 16k selectees (with the assumption of holes distributed evenly). 16k/23k X 27k = 18,000 should be the low risk range based on DV13 progress and pattern. But every year is different so you should take this only as a guide. Let hope and pray it progress faster and faster for each coming months.

 

[Britsimon]

If in DV13 need to interview all selectees (16k) to fulfilled the regional quota since it goes current for the last 2 months. We do a simple calculation of getting the DV14 range of case # within the 16k selectees (with the assumption of holes distributed evenly). 16k/23k X 27k = 18,000 should be the low risk range based on DV13 progress and pattern. But every year is different so you should take this only as a guide. Let hope and pray it progress faster and faster for each coming months.

I would say that is about right - the Global cutoff might hit Asia at around 20k or a bit more...

 

[Asia2014]

Hi britsimon,
KCC reply is ,Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing. KCC is currently scheduling visa numbers for your region for the month of December. Please refer to the visa bulletin at www.travel.state.gov to locate the current numbers being processed. This bulletin is updated after the 15th day of each month...what does it mean? Is it confirm for second notification letter..? Please clarify!!

 

[Britsimon]

Hi britsimon,
KCC reply is ,Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing. KCC is currently scheduling visa numbers for your region for the month of December. Please refer to the visa bulletin at www.travel.state.gov to locate the current numbers being processed. This bulletin is updated after the 15th day of each month...what does it mean? Is it confirm for second notification letter..? Please clarify!!

It is just a standard reply saying they have got your forms. It doesn't indicate anything about when you will get your 2NL.

 

[Sergey6116]

It is just a standard reply saying they have got your forms. It doesn't indicate anything about when you will get your 2NL.

If the forms have been sent to the embassy form KCC than everything was ok with the forms right?

p.S. Sorry for offtopic.

 

[Britsimon]

If the forms have been sent to the embassy form KCC than everything was ok with the forms right?

p.S. Sorry for offtopic.

Not necessarily. Prior to informing selectees, here are some people disqualified (and this creates holes). Then after the selectees are informed KCC will no longer disqualify anything. So when they process the forms they may see something amiss and may "flag" the item for investigation, but the forms will still be sent to the Embassy. Once the interview happens the flag will be investigated and problems found with the forms could cause a denial. However, at the interview simple mistakes can be corrected or changes made to the forms. That is why you don't sign all the forms until the interview.

 

[c1984]

Firstly, we don't know how many selectees are under case 2650. How many holes in it? How many selectees per case #? In DV13, there is a case where a single case # has 10 selectees. That's mean one case # will take 10 visa allocation. So, when case # moving slower than last year did not tell us the whole story. Yes, we have 27k case # issued as far as but what we don't know is that the number of holes between case #, would it be more holes created for case # after 10k, which mean we have higher density of case # below 10k than above 10k. Why I am saying this because I believe Iran creating more holes for case # above 10k with the assumption that Iran has reached to it country limit during selection below 10k. So when any selection after 10k from Iran, it will reject it hence hole get created. I was trying to get the max case # for Iran to verify my theory but so far I couldn't get any. So far, I didn't see any Iranian case # above 10k from Iranian site.

Dude, see what I found. You must have forgotten about this.

Another 3 CN # from Iranian site

2014AS000197xx
2014AS00019xxx
2014AS00023xxx

23xxx seem to be the highest reported so far from Iran.

 

[Kayend]

Dude, see what I found. You must have forgotten about this.

Really, you used the site I given to you? I have not check the site for the last 2 months. If that is the case then Iran special cut off will rule out. Mean every asian will have a fair ground.

 

[c1984]

Really, you used the site I given to you? I have not check the site for the last 2 months. If that is the case then Iran special cut off will rule out. Mean every asian will have a fair ground.

I didn't go to any websites. That post is from yourself.

 

[Kayend]

I didn't go to any websites. That post is from yourself.

I see. If I am not mistaken, the post is not valid which I get few months back. If you go to the site that I give to you I no longer find those case#. I might get those number from google search which might not from Iran. Well, it means the Iran special cut off still possible.

 

[QiQ]

Hi I'm iranian ,most iranian cn is under 8000 but we have some cn after 10000 .
My friends cn is 22000 .