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Mystery about Asia-DV 2014

QiQ said:
Hi I'm iranian ,most iranian cn is under 8000 but we have some cn after 10000 .
My friends cn is 22000 .
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Can anybody explain why most Iranian numbers are below 8000. There are about 6000 selectee from Iran. Does that means Iran is the first priority? Did they first assigned case no to Iranians and when most of them are done then assign to other countries? I thought the case no is randomly distributed among all countries.
 
So its just will be a Day dream for all other asian to hope for high increment as Iran has maximum cases below 8000 ohh god now mystery is being opened why asia is moving slow... God bless Asia..
 
6000 selectee do not include 6000 case number and its just lucky draw and maximum Iranian got case number low not about priority in my view
Birahi_kancha said:
Can anybody explain why most Iranian numbers are below 8000. There are about 6000 selectee from Iran. Does that means Iran is the first priority? Did they first assigned case no to Iranians and when most of them are done then assign to other countries? I thought the case no is randomly distributed among all countries.
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My humble appreciation to Kayend You had been doing good job keep on...
kayend said:
What I believe is when Iran scenario did happened, it will have special cut off for them to balance up the allocation of visa. If they implement the special cut off for Iran, the case # will speed up drastically (assuming 6000 selectees of Iranian are between 0-10000 case #). You could even see Asia jump to 10,000 case # as early as Mar 2014. Nepal is not under special cut off because someone reported that one Nepalis has a case # of 27,000, so no balancing needed.

One thing I noticed is that no one country more than 6100 selectees and we have 10 countries with 6000-6100. Even you check all the history of DV, no one country has more than 6100. So I think that is the max selectees one country and go. And usually, those special cut off come from country that has selectees ranging from 5500 - 6100.
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QiQ said:
Hi I'm iranian ,most iranian cn is under 8000 but we have some cn after 10000 .
My friends cn is 22000 .
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Thanks for your info. This is very helpful. Initial thought is that any country has high selectees and max case # below certain level will classify as special cut off, now some Iranian has high case # too. Let see what is going to happen in next 3 months. I still think some balancing needed due to logistic arrangement like interviews and resources on certain embassy.
 
ya its really amazing to see with such rate of Vb when will so high case numbers from srilanka be covered... and this year the number of srilankan winners are in considerable numbers...
Nerandima said:
What is your idea baout Sri Lanka this time?? they have selected about 1600 in this year..........
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luck_boy said:
ya its really amazing to see with such rate of Vb when will so high case numbers from srilanka be covered... and this year the number of srilankan winners are in considerable numbers...
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It doesn't matter which country you fall into, the visa allocation run by region. If a country has a lot of low number case #, then that country will have high visa allocated to them. The only country that need to worry about the country limit is Iran and Nepal. Sri Lanka only have 1,600 selectees so that should go by the region progress.
 
One thing I want to point out is that since Iran has high case # (22k) reported by QiQ. So the holes distribution should be more even. If the holes distribution is more even and assuming no special cut off for any country in Asia, the Jan to Mar cut off will roughly tell us how the progress for Apr onward. So for high case # selectees will know the chances better in Feb VB which usually publish in early Jan 2014. For any high case # selectee, be patient and wait for Feb 2014 for know their chances better.
 
Birahi_kancha said:
Can anybody explain why most Iranian numbers are below 8000. There are about 6000 selectee from Iran. Does that means Iran is the first priority? Did they first assigned case no to Iranians and when most of them are done then assign to other countries? I thought the case no is randomly distributed among all countries.
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America has no embassy in Iran and Interviews are conducted in other countries.
I believe The main reason for this is.
 
Hey QiQ,

Are you sure the CN's higher than 80xx are from the AS region? I noticed that some were assigned EU case numbers. Are those the ones higher than 8000?

Thanks refigh.
 
Is there any statistics on the number of participants (not selectees) by country in DV14? My hypothesis is that the number of participants from Iran is so high that when the country limit is not met, mostly Iranians are randomly selected (6000 out of the first 8000) and only when Iran hits the per country limit then the frequency of selection from other countries increases.

Notice that each person in a region has an equal chance. So if you have more participants from a certain country, you will see more selectees from there.
 
I agree with kayend that after AS passes 8000 we should see huge increments in the cut-off number.

That actually explains why the progression for AS has been so slow. If the majority of the selectees below 8000 are from Iran then they may be overwhelming the embassies that process selectees from Iran, and that's why they are increasing the cut-off very slowly.

I will not be surprised if AS progression turns out to be excruciatingly slow before 8000 but then picks up exponentially after that.
 
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c1984 said:
Hey QiQ,

Are you sure the CN's higher than 80xx are from the AS region? I noticed that some were assigned EU case numbers. Are those the ones higher than 8000?

Thanks refigh.
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Yes but this example is very very low .
My cn is 8000 and most friends cn between 100 to 8000 .
 
c1984 said:
I agree with kayend that after AS passes 8000 we should see huge increments in the cut-off number.

That actually explains why the progression for AS has been so slow. If the majority of the selectees below 8000 are from Iran then they may be overwhelming the embassies that process selectees from Iran, and that's why they are increasing the cut-off very slowly.

I will not be surprised if AS progression turns out to be excruciatingly slow before 8000 but then picks up exponentially after that.
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My guess is that in Jan cut off, it will increase at least 1,500 case #. If not, it will not be completing all 27,000 case # this year.
 
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