March N-400 Statistics

[nyc_naturalizer]

These have now been posted:

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/N-400 NATURALIZATION BENEFITS_Mar08.pdf

Good news, for the most part. The situation is improving, if slowly. Total cases processed (approved + denied) in March was 93,583, up from 82,594 in February and under 70,000 in prior months. This demonstrates that the expansion of staff and interview hours is having some effect. Receipts are still way down for March (-60% from March 2007), which is why the DOs that are focusing on newer applications are able to process these guys so quickly. And, the total number of pending applications is finally below one million (958,663).

 

[Vorpal]

These have now been posted:

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/N-400 NATURALIZATION BENEFITS_Mar08.pdf

Good news, for the most part. The situation is improving, if slowly. Total cases processed (approved + denied) in March was 93,583, up from 82,594 in February and under 70,000 in prior months. This demonstrates that the expansion of staff and interview hours is having some effect. Receipts are still way down for March (-60% from March 2007), which is why the DOs that are focusing on newer applications are able to process these guys so quickly. And, the total number of pending applications is finally below one million (958,663).

With all the bogus nonsense that's been released by the USCIS recently (retrogressions, projected processing times, et. al.), who's to say that these statistics aren't rigged? Lately, I'm having a very hard time believing anything that comes from the USCIS.

 

[lazycis]

I also find it hard to believe this picture. Can anyone explain me how the number of pending applications (red line) can be less than the number of receipts (blue line)? As soon as application comes in and receipt is issued, it should be pending, right?

 

[Vorpal]

I also find it hard to believe this picture. Can anyone explain me how the number of pending applications (red line) can be less than the number of receipts (blue line)? As soon as application comes in and receipt is issued, it should be pending, right?

My guess would be that the number of receipts received within a given month is added to the total number of pending applications. The blue line representing "Applications Received" is only there to demonstrate how many applications were received within that month.

 

[POCTOB]

I also find it hard to believe this picture. Can anyone explain me how the number of pending applications (red line) can be less than the number of receipts (blue line)? As soon as application comes in and receipt is issued, it should be pending, right?

USCIS used one of the most abused statistics tricks - scale is different for Receipts & Approvals (right side) and Pending (left side scale) - looks like 3 times different - "hey, but it made my report look sexy!"

What doesn't tell whole story is 650k pending in 03/2007 (vs 950k pending in 03/2008) - how many of them were pending 180days/1/2/3/4years in 2007 and now. That's what I REALLY wanna know - my guess, it's getting worse.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics"

 

[lazycis]

My guess would be that the number of receipts received within a given month is added to the total number of pending applications. The blue line representing "Applications Received" is only there to demonstrate how many applications were received within that month.

In that case red line should always be higher than blue line, which is not the case for June-August 2007.

 

[yummyk]

I did a double take at firs on one of their stats: denials. I think I figured it out though.

While it appears true that denials are up about 8% over last year, in absoulte terms, USCIS has also processed proportionately more applications than last year. When I looked at the denial rate (the number of denials per total number of applications processed) it is actually lower in FY 2008 than in FY 2007. By my calculation it is at about 10% vs 13% or so last year.

 

[nyc_naturalizer]

In that case red line should always be higher than blue line, which is not the case for June-August 2007.

As POCTOB points out, the scale is different for the two pieces of data. The relative position of the red and blue lines is meaningless.

The graphic is misleading, but I believe the numbers are reliable, unlike the processing timeframes. The data is easy for USCIS to maintain, it's just input-output. Receipts are just how many applications they process in the Service Center mailrooms in a month, and approvals/denials are the total for all DOs in a month. Pending cases = total receipts to date - (total approved to date + total denied to date). Because the data doesn't make any claims about timelines or queues or other contingencies, there's nothing difficult or controversial about it. I've followed these stats for a few months and they're always internally consistent and tend to corroborate what's actually happening with processing.