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Last VB - The Final Countdown

guestgulkan

guestgulkan

Well-Known Member
Since the final VB numbers are only a week or two away, I thought I'd post my predictions.

Here they are:

AFRICA 52,000 Egypt: 29,000
ASIA 9,500 Nepal: 7,300
EUROPE 40,000
OCEANIA 1,400
SOUTH AMERICA 1,500

What do you think?
 
Sensei-san said:
This is our swan song of a cooked goose.
Click to expand...

why do you keep coming on here to tell people how "cooked your goose is"
u must've done this at least a half dozen times in the last 2 days of posts that i've read

if your goose is soo cooked, you should move on with your life shouldn't you?
 
guestgulkan said:
Since the final VB numbers are only a week or two away, I thought I'd post my predictions.

Here they are:

AFRICA 52,000 Egypt: 29,000
ASIA 9,500 Nepal: 7,300
EUROPE 40,000
OCEANIA 1,400
SOUTH AMERICA 1,500

What do you think?
Click to expand...
Will you explain how you come out with these predictions? Personally, I am confident that AS will cross the 10000 border...
 
guestgulkan said:
Since the final VB numbers are only a week or two away, I thought I'd post my predictions.

Here they are:

AFRICA 52,000 Egypt: 29,000
ASIA 9,500 Nepal: 7,300
EUROPE 40,000
OCEANIA 1,400
SOUTH AMERICA 1,500

What do you think?
Click to expand...
Sounds about right. We'll all see final, final VB2015 numbers in a few short days... Good luck!
 
Thank you EURO2014 and guestgulkan for your input!
Looking at the past VB progression, your 'prediction' is as good as anybody's guess.
But don't you think that there is a minimum quota that KCC/VO is expecting by the end of this fiscal year?
Personally I do not watch other regions as closely as AS (and it might be my own wishful thinking), calling below AS9500 will yield less than 7500 visas (including AOS). IF AS is not getting their 15-16% of what (as DV4ROGER has mentioned), is the 'shortfall' of AS going to benefit the rest of the 5 regions?

Just my 2 cents, and don't mind my ranting! o_O
 
So you all think that there is no chance to have in total as many visas issued as last year, mostly because of AF not reaching its quota?
 
This talk about not reaching quotas confuses me.
The quota is 50000 visas but in reality likely to be higher. If they thought they wouldn't reach it then CNs would be higher or current.
 
Well, some people said that until the last visa bulleting KCC didn't react to AF high no show rate. Even though the July bulletin did have a significant jump for AF, it is probably too late for them to catch up due to limited workload that AF embassies can handle.
That is the only explanation to your predicted numbers. Last year at this time there were way more visas issued (even considering the last CEAC data not being fully up to date). So, either they will not issue as many visas this year, or the regional quotas are different from what we think.
 
Mohammad43 said:
Will you explain how you come out with these predictions? Personally, I am confident that AS will cross the 10000 border...
Click to expand...

Sure. btw before anyone gets upset, look at my signature. I'm predicting my own failure.

My predictions are basically a combination of previous month's rises, mathematics, DV2014 history and capacity.

AFRICA 52,000 - another 8000 rise. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 55,000 **
ASIA 9,500 - The last VB was terrible for ROA. I'm predicting Iranian AP will resolve quickly and use up much of the quota. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 10,000
EUROPE 40,000 - Europe is already maxed out. How can it go much higher than last year considering higher response rates?
OCEANIA 1,400 - yet another 75 rise.
SOUTH AMERICA 1,500 - a 150 rise plus backlog should fulfill their visa issuance requirements. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 1,550

I'm not an expert at all so don't get upset if your number is higher. Feel free to disagree.



** I'm just guessing what BritSimon thinks based on his posts. I don't actually know.
 
guestgulkan said:
Sure. btw before anyone gets upset, look at my signature. I'm predicting my own failure.

My predictions are basically a combination of previous month's rises, mathematics, DV2014 history and capacity.

AFRICA 52,000 - another 8000 rise. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 55,000 **
ASIA 9,500 - The last VB was terrible for ROA. I'm predicting Iranian AP will resolve quickly and use up much of the quota. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 10,000
EUROPE 40,000 - Europe is already maxed out. How can it go much higher than last year considering higher response rates?
OCEANIA 1,400 - yet another 75 rise.
SOUTH AMERICA 1,500 - a 150 rise plus backlog should fulfill their visa issuance requirements. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 1,550

I'm not an expert at all so don't get upset if your number is higher. Feel free to disagree.



** I'm just guessing what BritSimon thinks based on his posts. I don't actually know.
Click to expand...
Guestgulkan, while I cannot speak for others, I enjoy the the discussion and prediction you have posted.
The last thing I feel is upset because the number you predicted doesn't include me.

  1. I can understand the Iranian AP may resolve much quicker and here are a few points for your consideration:
  2. No one can clear AP, unless they enter - sounds silly right? No input no output.
  3. By calling a low VB from 6850-7650, relatively less Iranian will enter/clear AP.
  4. AFAIK, 7650-8500 Iranians will not clear AP (ok, the security background type which requires more than a month)
  5. They have 1400 issued so far and about 800 in the hopper.
  6. The issued visa per 1000CN range converge to about 200 and 230 given the have 1-2 month to clear.

So, this is what I suggest 8.5*230 visas(remember the 30 is from 1-2 month AP clearance) = 1955
Since I pad their issue rate, let's say the pool of 800 AP currently will not increase by much. I give them at 62.5% clearance rate based on my observation(1st time approval at 35%, then 45% 2 months out, 60% 3 months out and finally 80% 7 months out) = 500 visa

The sum is 2455. This means ROA will get 1900 based on a very conservative 7950 visa issued at the end.
7950-300(AOS) = 7650
7650-3300(Nepal)-2455(Iran) = 1855
The currect rate of ROA is about 150/1000, let's say it's 160.
1855/160 = 11.59

Let say we give them another 100 visas for nothing, shall we? 1755/160 = 10.9

Of course, if the VO thinks otherwise or even fail to realize, none of this would matter.
What do you think about this for a AS prediction?
 
johnelliot344 said:
why do you keep coming on here to tell people how "cooked your goose is"
u must've done this at least a half dozen times in the last 2 days of posts that i've read

if your goose is soo cooked, you should move on with your life shouldn't you?
Click to expand...
One word - echolalia.
 
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