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Last VB - The Final Countdown

guestgulkan said:
Sure. btw before anyone gets upset, look at my signature. I'm predicting my own failure.

My predictions are basically a combination of previous month's rises, mathematics, DV2014 history and capacity.

AFRICA 52,000 - another 8000 rise. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 55,000 **
ASIA 9,500 - The last VB was terrible for ROA. I'm predicting Iranian AP will resolve quickly and use up much of the quota. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 10,000
EUROPE 40,000 - Europe is already maxed out. How can it go much higher than last year considering higher response rates?
OCEANIA 1,400 - yet another 75 rise.
SOUTH AMERICA 1,500 - a 150 rise plus backlog should fulfill their visa issuance requirements. Simon is more optimistic and I think he thinks 1,550

I'm not an expert at all so don't get upset if your number is higher. Feel free to disagree.



** I'm just guessing what BritSimon thinks based on his posts. I don't actually know.
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Ok, it looks like you really are guessing.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
I would give guestgulkan the credit for opening th post and encouraging the discussion. Anyone's prediction is just that prediction.
It really up to the VO or none of the prediction matters.

Forgot to mention good luck guestgulkan.
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Absolutely, I do appreciate that.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Guestgulkan, while I cannot speak for others, I enjoy the the discussion and prediction you have posted.
The last thing I feel is upset because the number you predicted doesn't include me.

  1. I can understand the Iranian AP may resolve much quicker and here are a few points for your consideration:
  2. No one can clear AP, unless they enter - sounds silly right? No input no output.
  3. By calling a low VB from 6850-7650, relatively less Iranian will enter/clear AP.
  4. AFAIK, 7650-8500 Iranians will not clear AP (ok, the security background type which requires more than a month)
  5. They have 1400 issued so far and about 800 in the hopper.
  6. The issued visa per 1000CN range converge to about 200 and 230 given the have 1-2 month to clear.

So, this is what I suggest 8.5*230 visas(remember the 30 is from 1-2 month AP clearance) = 1955
Since I pad their issue rate, let's say the pool of 800 AP currently will not increase by much. I give them at 62.5% clearance rate based on my observation(1st time approval at 35%, then 45% 2 months out, 60% 3 months out and finally 80% 7 months out) = 500 visa

The sum is 2455. This means ROA will get 1900 based on a very conservative 7950 visa issued at the end.
7950-300(AOS) = 7650
7650-3300(Nepal)-2455(Iran) = 1855
The currect rate of ROA is about 150/1000, let's say it's 160.
1855/160 = 11.59

Let say we give them another 100 visas for nothing, shall we? 1755/160 = 10.9

Of course, if the VO thinks otherwise or even fail to realize, none of this would matter.
What do you think about this for a AS prediction?
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Looks very logical to me, as long as they don't surprise us with sudden mass clearings.
 
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I'm 2015af522** keeping the faith that I will be current in the next VB...not winning at all is actually better than winning and not becoming current...
 
Sounds about right for Asia, at best they're gonna reach 10,*** but I just don't see it going over 11,***

Better to be prepared early to avoid disappointment down the road

AS13.6**.. Lost all my hope..

Good luck my fellow roas (not talking to you Nepalese and Iranians.. You've had your turn for 11 months you selfish XXXX )
 
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siliconeslinger said:
Sounds about right for Asia, at best they're gonna reach 10,*** but I just don't see it going over 11,***

Better to be prepared early to avoid disappointment down the road

AS13.6**.. Lost all my hope..

Good luck my fellow roas (not talking to you Nepalese and Iranians.. You've had your turn for 11 months you selfish XXXX)
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Are you pledging 30 bucks to me or what?
Cause if you ain't, you are not ready for grown-men business.
 
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Wouldn't be surprised if the last VB doesn't come out until the 13th or 14th. I remember it was a little later than usual last year..
 
guestgulkan said:
Wouldn't be surprised if the last VB doesn't come out until the 13th or 14th. I remember it was a little later than usual last year..
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Probably.

If they publish later, it's probably due to family and employment classes. Those calculation has far more exception and relation to non-numerically controlled programs, DV has just 1, NACARA.

In my research, it seems they rely on 4 report(2 important) to make VB calculations.

Also, it can always be a IT delay than a calculation delay.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Probably.

If they publish later, it's probably due to family and employment classes. Those calculation has far more exception and relation to non-numerically controlled programs, DV has just 1, NACARA.

In my research, it seems they rely on 4 report(2 important) to make VB calculations.

Also, it can always be a IT delay than a calculation delay.
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Last year's August VB says 8 July but I remember it being later somehow.
 
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