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June 2017 Visa Bulletin

Hello everybody,
Do you think that Egypt may hit the country limit in DV-2017?
Is the country limit 3500 or 3850?
 
H H said:
Hello everybody,
Do you think that Egypt may hit the country limit in DV-2017?
Is the country limit 3500 or 3850?
Click to expand...
There are no more than 3,850 visa numbers for Egyptian applicants. At the end of the fiscal year Egypt will have received some 3,450 to 3,650 visas.

Yes, there will be a September cut-off for Egypt.
 
DV4ROGER said:
There are no more than 3,850 visa numbers for Egyptian applicants. At the end of the fiscal year Egypt will have received some 3,450 to 3,650 visas.

Yes, there will be a September cut-off for Egypt.
Click to expand...

Any guesses as to what?
 
When VO determines the September cut-off around July 8, they can't have circulating more than 3,850 visa numbers. Some will be no-shows, refusals, uncleared APs. These will be wasted visas, unless a large number of old and cleared APs pick them up (Iran DV-2013, 3,802 visas).
 
SusieQQQ said:
I meant, as to what the Egypt cutoff might be?
Click to expand...
In the comments section of
http://britsimonsays.com/dv-2017-2nd-draw-additional-selectees-chosen/
you find the message

Eman
October 17, 2016 at 9:44 pm

Hello brit
I a 2017 dv selectee (2nd draw). My case number is AF 32xxx (egypt).

On the other hand there are no higher Egyptian 1st draw cases reported than 2017AF31###
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv2017-egyptian-winners-meet-here.332051/#post-2436339

CEAC-2016 applied to DV-2017 corroborates these accounts, which lets me assume that the limit in May was indeed near 32,000 (4500 selectees). Since Egypt needs approximately 5000 selectees to hit the limit, an increase of 10% would have been reasonable, which puts the cut-off near 35,500.
Complicating the situation is KCC's emails (to whom exactly?), which could increase demand even from 1st draw cases (I used numbers from 2015 and 2016). So, taking into account the uncertainty re the May limit, a cut-off as low as 33,500 wouldn't be a surprise to me – one above 36,500 would.
 
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DV4ROGER said:
In the comments section of
http://britsimonsays.com/dv-2017-2nd-draw-additional-selectees-chosen/
you find the message

Eman
October 17, 2016 at 9:44 pm

Hello brit
I a 2017 dv selectee (2nd draw). My case number is AF 32xxx (egypt).

On the other hand there are no higher Egyptian 1st draw cases reported than 2017AF31###
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv2017-egyptian-winners-meet-here.332051/#post-2436339

CEAC-2016 applied to DV-2017 corroborates these accounts, which lets me assume that the limit in May was indeed near 32,000 (4500 selectees). Since Egypt needs approximately 5000 selectees to hit the limit, an increase of 10% would have been reasonable, which puts the cut-off near 35,500.
Complicating the situation is KCC's emails (to whom exactly?), which could increase demand even from 1st draw cases (I used numbers from 2015 and 2016). So, taking into account the uncertainty re the May limit, a cut-off as low as 33,500 wouldn't be a surprise to me – one above 36,500 would.
Click to expand...

There's someone on another forum who is 46xxx for Egypt. I'm pretty worried for him....
I suspect he's a second draw as he only found out when he went to check for DV2018.
 
DV4ROGER said:
In the comments section of
http://britsimonsays.com/dv-2017-2nd-draw-additional-selectees-chosen/
you find the message

Eman
October 17, 2016 at 9:44 pm

Hello brit
I a 2017 dv selectee (2nd draw). My case number is AF 32xxx (egypt).

On the other hand there are no higher Egyptian 1st draw cases reported than 2017AF31###
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv2017-egyptian-winners-meet-here.332051/#post-2436339

CEAC-2016 applied to DV-2017 corroborates these accounts, which lets me assume that the limit in May was indeed near 32,000 (4500 selectees). Since Egypt needs approximately 5000 selectees to hit the limit, an increase of 10% would have been reasonable, which puts the cut-off near 35,500.
Complicating the situation is KCC's emails (to whom exactly?), which could increase demand even from 1st draw cases (I used numbers from 2015 and 2016). So, taking into account the uncertainty re the May limit, a cut-off as low as 33,500 wouldn't be a surprise to me – one above 36,500 would.
Click to expand...

thanks a lot for the analysis
wish Egypt become current in the next two bulletins
 
Top 15 in March 2017
uc
 
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