Guys and Gals,
If the July bulletin hasn't slapped some reality into us then nothing will. I think the following are realistic expectations for the remainder of this year (ends Sept 06) for the different PDs within India.
India PDs before April 30 2001 - I believe your dates will become current by atleast the Sept 06 bulletin.
India PDs between May-June-July 2001 - There is an outside chance that you may become current in Sept 06 if there aren't a rush of PDs from April 01. At this point the chances are 50-50.
India PDs July-August-Sept - If India EB3 moves past April 2001 by Sept 06 then there is a chance this group may become current by December 06.
India PDs Oct-Nov-Dec - If the above scenario comes true then there is a chance that you might become current in early 07.
BIG HURDLE - The one thing that can throw all of the above into a loop is if the prediction of thousands of labor apps getting approved in Sept-Dec 06 and making their way to USCIS comes true. I firmly believe that most of these cases are with PDs from 2002 and beyond and a lot of these folks have reverted to PERM but if the flood does occur then the DOS and USCIS will freeze all dates and may even throw the dates back to April 01 for most EB3 categories till they are able to get a handle on the situation. This process may take 3-6 months and during this time the dates may become static once again.
India PDs 2002 - If the big hurdle never occurs then there is hope for you towards the middle or end of fiscal year 07 that ends in Sept 07. If the hurdle does occur then you can forget about 07 altogether.
India PDs 2003 and beyond - Hurdle or not, I don't see any relief till 2008 and beyond.
The only thing that can change all of this is an immigration bill with favorable provisions. The current CIR seems deadlocked and I wouldn't put to much hope on its approval.
The bottom line is that EB3 India is screwed in the short-term(2-3 years). Either way you look at it, there really is nothing to be happy about. Its a grim outlook but better be realistic than foolharty.
regards,
saras