Jan 2008 Visa Bulletin is out!

sfmars said:
I believe that a lot of EB3 with PD 2002/2003 and earlier have upgraded their category to EB2 and transfered original EB3 PD in the EB2 category recently.

Only this can explain huge demand EB2 IN.
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Actually when any PD (either EB2 or EB3) is way ahead of where it should have been, it results in excessive approvals, approaching country limit and the category becoming "U".

Both EB2-IN and EB3-IN should be around late 2001, that'll result in around few hundred GC approvals from each every month(around max limit).

Everytime, they move EB2-IN way forward, there's a glut of approvals and it becomes "U". That happened last year, as well as this.

Otherwise, there's nothing wrong with EB2 (or it's as much wrong with EB2 as with EB3).

Both EB2-IN and EB3-IN are equally screwed. No point in zigzagging between them.

So when will the respite come for both: When EB3-RoW becomes current.

Reason: Currently, EB2-RoW overflow is going to EB3-RoW (it's the reality though it sounds outrageous to many folks). When EB3-RoW becomes current, EB3-RoW will overflow to EB3-IN (as well as other countries). and EB2-RoW will again overflow to EB2-IN.

Till that happens, EB2-IN AND EB3-IN cannot move more than a month every half year.

There's no point in watching EB2-IN and EB3-IN movements... The key date, the people from all retrogressed countries should be watching is EB3-RoW movement.

Amen.
 
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In the absence of ROW overflow and the existing hard per country cap, the overflow from EB1,2 ROW goes to EB3 ROW. And this keeps EB2,3 IN severely retrogressed. This was also the argument advocated by UN lastyear. A valid argument until june and july'07 when suddenly the dates moved forward excessively and UN was criticized heavily for his flawed theories, etc.
Bottomline if it becomes U, then we have to wait until october'08 or october'09 when it may become all current.
gravitation said:
Actually when any PD (either EB2 or EB3) is way ahead of where it should have been, it results in excessive approvals, approaching country limit and the category becoming "U".

Both EB2-IN and EB3-IN should be around late 2001, that'll result in around few hundred GC approvals from each every month(around max limit).

Everytime, they move EB2-IN way forward, there's a glut of approvals and it becomes "U". That happened last year, as well as this.

Otherwise, there's nothing wrong with EB2 (or it's as much wrong with EB2 as with EB3).

Both EB2-IN and EB3-IN are equally screwed. No point in zigzagging between them.

So when will the respite come for both: When EB3-RoW becomes current.

Reason: Currently, EB2-RoW overflow is going to EB3-RoW (it's the reality though it sounds outrageous to many folks). When EB3-RoW becomes current, EB3-RoW will overflow to EB3-IN (as well as other countries). and EB2-RoW will again overflow to EB2-IN.

Till that happens, EB2-IN AND EB3-IN cannot move more than a month every half year.

There's no point in watching EB2-IN and EB3-IN movements... The key date, the people from all retrogressed countries should be watching is EB3-RoW movement.

Amen.
Click to expand...
 
tusharvk said:
In the absence of ROW overflow and the existing hard per country cap, the overflow from EB1,2 ROW goes to EB3 ROW. And this keeps EB2,3 IN severely retrogressed. This was also the argument advocated by UN lastyear. A valid argument until june and july'07 when suddenly the dates moved forward excessively and UN was criticized heavily for his flawed theories, etc.
Bottomline if it becomes U, then we have to wait until october'08 or october'09 when it may become all current.
Click to expand...

The overflow mechanism is not a theory but a fact (it was stated in one of the visa bulletins).

July bulletin was an aberration. The problem is that every time there's an irrational jump in visa bulletin, people think that retrogression is gone and all their problems are solved. It's hope triumphing reality (I'm not criticizing, it's just human nature).

If there's any other irrational jump in dates, certain people will get lucky... but it's not something to be counted on. And if that doesn't happen, people from India will be waiting 7~10 years before getting GC's. If anyone doesn't want to believe it, I understand. But it's the hard reality.
 
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7 Years.....we have to keep renewing EAD/AP nightmare. Is this all worth it? With the dollar crashing.... I think we are in deep trouble...catch 22
 
I feel the only solution to this disaster of retrogression is to increase the visa numbers, congress should do something, otherwise things will be getting worse and worse.
 
They won't increase the 140,000 quota. Not until after the November 2008 election. Until then, recapture from previous years is the only possibility.
 
labor_replace said:
7 Years.....we have to keep renewing EAD/AP nightmare. Is this all worth it? With the dollar crashing.... I think we are in deep trouble...catch 22
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I don’t understand, It means even if you have file I-485 in July 2007, you have to wait till your PD is current and need to renew EAD? you don't get GC as you have already file I-485?
 
Parth1970 said:
I don’t understand, It means even if you have file I-485 in July 2007, you have to wait till your PD is current and need to renew EAD? you don't get GC as you have already file I-485?
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The priority serves two purposes: (1) your priority date must be current for you to file the I-485 and (2) after the necessary processing has been completed on your case (fingerprints, name check etc.), your priority date must again be current* for your green card to be approved. So you will have to wait for it to become current again.

After filing my I-485 in June 2005 it took about 2 years for my PD to become current again. I was into my 3rd EAD when my GC got approved this summer.


*in some cases it can be approved when no longer current, if your PD was current at some point within the past one or two months (during which your case was tagged for approval and assigned a "visa number") and then became not current.
 
It is clear as day that the immigration system sees AOS applicants as a cash cow.Every one knows if they were really serious in solving the back log problem the visa numbers quota needs to increase significantly for employment base applicants. As I see it we have no voice in this matter.Why can't AILA petition for increase in visa quota . Some lawyers also see AOS applicants as cash cows.We all have a long wait to see a significant move in PD. Only god can help us.
 
Jackolantern said:
The priority serves two purposes: (1) your priority date must be current for you to file the I-485 and (2) after the necessary processing has been completed on your case (fingerprints, name check etc.), your priority date must again be current* for your green card to be approved. So you will have to wait for it to become current again.

[/I]
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It would be more logical to have 2 different priority dates, first one for accepting applications and second one (PD+6 months) for approving I-485. That way USCIS can regulate the inflow and at the same time try to reduce the backlog.
But then as we all know USCIS and logic do not go together.
 
With aging population in the US and labor shortages in technology field, people are required. Educated people from all over the world can fill this need. So, legal immigration quota increase with some sunset provisions is the solution. However, the US citizens seemingly are either unaware of this problem or just choose to ignore it. Therefore, senate+congress has not been able to get any piece of legislation through. Now, it is unlikely to happen in Bush presidency.
 
Last year EB2IN had following cut-off dates:
oct'06 VB: June'02
nov'06 VB: Jan'03
dec'06 VB: Jan'03
Jan'07 VB: Jan'03
Feb'07 VB: Jan'03
Mar'07 VB: Jan'03
April'07 VB: Jan'03
May'07 VB: Jan'03 (warning of expedited forward movement due to demand from BEC not materializing)
June'07 VB: Arp'04 (notice regarding continued advanced movement due to demand still being lower)
Infamous July'07 VB fiasco: all current
So, it does seem that the cutoff date moves only by 18 months or so every 6 months. This has also led to stagnant demands and fiasco VB of July'07.
This was an aberration; a result of CIS+DOS being too conservative in their estimates. I will do a similar check of the cutoff date movement in FY'08 to see if DOS has been too liberal in their estimates for FY'08.

The other thing this states is that indeed there weren't very many cases left to be approved prior to Jan'03; hence, the demand was so stagnant that the DOS had to move cutoff dates significantly forward to maximize the utilization of the visa numbers.

gravitation said:
Actually when any PD (either EB2 or EB3) is way ahead of where it should have been, it results in excessive approvals, approaching country limit and the category becoming "U".

Both EB2-IN and EB3-IN should be around late 2001, that'll result in around few hundred GC approvals from each every month(around max limit).

Everytime, they move EB2-IN way forward, there's a glut of approvals and it becomes "U". That happened last year, as well as this.

Otherwise, there's nothing wrong with EB2 (or it's as much wrong with EB2 as with EB3).

Both EB2-IN and EB3-IN are equally screwed. No point in zigzagging between them.

So when will the respite come for both: When EB3-RoW becomes current.

Reason: Currently, EB2-RoW overflow is going to EB3-RoW (it's the reality though it sounds outrageous to many folks). When EB3-RoW becomes current, EB3-RoW will overflow to EB3-IN (as well as other countries). and EB2-RoW will again overflow to EB2-IN.

Till that happens, EB2-IN AND EB3-IN cannot move more than a month every half year.

There's no point in watching EB2-IN and EB3-IN movements... The key date, the people from all retrogressed countries should be watching is EB3-RoW movement.

Amen.
Click to expand...
 
Thanks for bringing in the past VBs into perspective, tusharvk. I had similar questions about the demand for EB2 IN when the demand stagnated at Jan 03 for at least 7 months in FY 07 (ended Oct). And now in FY 08 (started Nov), how can the demand move so drastically to 2000. Ludicrous. Pure blasphemy. What ever I call it, I am the sufferer!! Hope for the best.

tusharvk said:
Last year EB2IN had following cut-off dates:
oct'06 VB: June'02
nov'06 VB: Jan'03
dec'06 VB: Jan'03
Jan'07 VB: Jan'03
Feb'07 VB: Jan'03
Mar'07 VB: Jan'03
April'07 VB: Jan'03
May'07 VB: Jan'03 (warning of expedited forward movement due to demand from BEC not materializing)
June'07 VB: Arp'04 (notice regarding continued advanced movement due to demand still being lower)
Infamous July'07 VB fiasco: all current
So, it does seem that the cutoff date moves only by 18 months or so every 6 months. This has also led to stagnant demands and fiasco VB of July'07.
This was an aberration; a result of CIS+DOS being too conservative in their estimates. I will do a similar check of the cutoff date movement in FY'08 to see if DOS has been too liberal in their estimates for FY'08.

The other thing this states is that indeed there weren't very many cases left to be approved prior to Jan'03; hence, the demand was so stagnant that the DOS had to move cutoff dates significantly forward to maximize the utilization of the visa numbers.
Click to expand...
 
Probably due to excessive use of labor substitution, and later converting EB3 cases to EB2 as the former was more retrogressed then. I also beleive that there were many applicants in the 2000 for whom visa numbers were allocated for approval.
 
gcWudBeHere said:
Thanks for bringing in the past VBs into perspective, tusharvk. I had similar questions about the demand for EB2 IN when the demand stagnated at Jan 03 for at least 7 months in FY 07 (ended Oct). And now in FY 08 (started Nov), how can the demand move so drastically to 2000. Ludicrous. Pure blasphemy. What ever I call it, I am the sufferer!! Hope for the best.
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The answer is BEC's! 400,000 labor applications from all categories and periods (before 2005) had been rotting there. They went hyperactive in 2007 and cleared them, and that's when pre-Jan 03 PD's started materilizing... in tens and hundreds of thousands!

As per trackitt, there are tons and tons of people with PD's in 2002 and 2003 in both EB2IN and EB3IN. A few (but not as many) from late 2001 too.
 
tusharvk said:
This was an aberration; a result of CIS+DOS being too conservative in their estimates. I will do a similar check of the cutoff date movement in FY'08 to see if DOS has been too liberal in their estimates for FY'08.
Click to expand...

The trouble was not the lack of applications with early PD's, but the BEC not clearing them soon enough. Many many approvals from BEC's arrived in mid 2007 (a lot of people even missed the Aug 17th deadline, some made by a whisker!) Those apps are now there!

The anomalous movement in PD dates of June & July 2007 was a desperate attempt to avoid the wastage of visa numbers. Nothing more.

tusharvk said:
The other thing this states is that indeed there weren't very many cases left to be approved prior to Jan'03; hence, the demand was so stagnant that the DOS had to move cutoff dates significantly forward to maximize the utilization of the visa numbers.
Click to expand...

Again, there weren't many pre Jan'03 apps then, but there are now, fresh out of BEC's. If you don't believe it, just check trackitt.
 
I would say move the cutoff date as far back as possible; may be to late 90's. This will result in no filings for a few months and suddenly in last quarter of 08, the possibility of number wastage dawns on them and they move the dates sufficiently fwd or make all current; that way people can atleast file I485 and enjoy alsmot all the benefits of GC.
gravitation said:
The trouble was not the lack of applications with early PD's, but the BEC not clearing them soon enough. Many many approvals from BEC's arrived in mid 2007 (a lot of people even missed the Aug 17th deadline, some made by a whisker!) Those apps are now there!

The anomalous movement in PD dates of June & July 2007 was a desperate attempt to avoid the wastage of visa numbers. Nothing more.



Again, there weren't many pre Jan'03 apps then, but there are now, fresh out of BEC's. If you don't believe it, just check trackitt.
Click to expand...
 
Unfortunately it's going to be a long ride before any changes happen.

The retrogression will be with you until there is an immigration overhaul - the simple reason it will be with you is that they are legally constrained by the current system and the quotas in place.

Quite simply, there are too many "would be" immigrants here for what the quota allows... as I've heard before... "you are trying to pack 10 lbs of shit in a 5 lb bag.... it won't work but will break the bag.... hence the immigration bag is broken.

Nothing will change this year or next year... not before the election.

And even if this is the first priority of the next administration, they don't get sworn in until Jan 2009 and they won't really get working and hitting their stride for 3-9 months at the earliest. It's doubtful they would tackle a complex issue like immigration first without a few wins under their belt. Then if and when they decide to overhaul immigration, thi will take at least a year of debates. They may or may not pass a "temporary" relief for technical workers but may refrain from it due to the fact that a comprehensive overhaul will be better than a temporary fix.

Add to that the potential for a recession, and all of a sudden peoples attention is on jobs, economy etc. The last thing they will want is to grant easier access to foreigners... especially illegals... which we are unfortunately lumped in with.

I know this sounds all like doom and gloom and I hope for those waiting this doesn't play out this way, however I have to be a realist and I think if you are waiting, you need to be as well. Because if you are pacing yourself to run a sprint and it's actually a marathon... you won't make it.

I believe this is a marathon and some people will end up waiting 5-10 years just to have their gc approved... plan your strategies accordingly and get organized and political.

But above else, pray!
 
How do you guys transfer from EB3 to EB2 so easily and still stay in the same company? Are you changing the jobs frequently?


Thanks,


Stoned!

EB3 ROW Nov 2002
 
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