immigration-law.com posted new 02/02 TSC processing times
- Thread starter ganti
- Start date
p5nxp600_2
Registered Users (C)
Wow and I can guess why no change to the date of processing
Wow last month when they finally updated the TSC report the number dropped from 69k to like 60k I-485 cases. Now to 43k cases thats amazing.
Again, I think the reason why they (TSC) don\'t shift the date is so you cannot call them and bug them or call a congressperson. This way they can give you a standard answer of they are processing 03/2000 cases and we should get to your case in 6 - 8 months. They probably have a few cases older than 03/2000 that got put to the bottom of some pile in their vast warehouse of files due to PDs regressing and now its taking them a while to find these files.
If these numbers are for real then there is hope beyond hope for a lot of the new filers of TSC. This news does not comfort those that have been waiting almost 2 years but for those that come ahead, they can have the hope of not waiting more than a year after 485 filing. Its just the old filers still have no idea when their case will be done.
Anyway, I am taking this at face value, TSC has done something to reduce the backlog and I am for one happy.
Wow last month when they finally updated the TSC report the number dropped from 69k to like 60k I-485 cases. Now to 43k cases thats amazing.
Again, I think the reason why they (TSC) don\'t shift the date is so you cannot call them and bug them or call a congressperson. This way they can give you a standard answer of they are processing 03/2000 cases and we should get to your case in 6 - 8 months. They probably have a few cases older than 03/2000 that got put to the bottom of some pile in their vast warehouse of files due to PDs regressing and now its taking them a while to find these files.
If these numbers are for real then there is hope beyond hope for a lot of the new filers of TSC. This news does not comfort those that have been waiting almost 2 years but for those that come ahead, they can have the hope of not waiting more than a year after 485 filing. Its just the old filers still have no idea when their case will be done.
Anyway, I am taking this at face value, TSC has done something to reduce the backlog and I am for one happy.
Reduced backlog due to cases transferred to VSC, NSC..??
Well everybody was wondering on what basis cases were transferred to the other SCs. Maybe this could be it. Do not want to burst the balloon but you never know. I am just trying to put 2 from here and 2 from there together...
Well everybody was wondering on what basis cases were transferred to the other SCs. Maybe this could be it. Do not want to burst the balloon but you never know. I am just trying to put 2 from here and 2 from there together...
I think you are right.
But how many of the I-140 filers are able to file I-485? I heard some of them got laidoff and not in a position to submit paystubs for the last 3 months (of course this is small number).
The other thing is that all the approved I-140 cases not coming back to TSC. I did my I-140 at VSC (because my office is located in NJ) and file my I-485 in TSC (I live in TN). I hope they will send the I-485 backlog files to other centers such as VSC or CSC like what they did in the case of I-140.
Anyway I am happy because the numbers are going South and dates are moving towards North.
/Sreenivasa Kumar Majji.
But how many of the I-140 filers are able to file I-485? I heard some of them got laidoff and not in a position to submit paystubs for the last 3 months (of course this is small number).
The other thing is that all the approved I-140 cases not coming back to TSC. I did my I-140 at VSC (because my office is located in NJ) and file my I-485 in TSC (I live in TN). I hope they will send the I-485 backlog files to other centers such as VSC or CSC like what they did in the case of I-140.
Anyway I am happy because the numbers are going South and dates are moving towards North.
/Sreenivasa Kumar Majji.
Ken Hamilton
Member
It is nice to see the I-765 make some progress
I think it moved about 90 days.
I think it moved about 90 days.
For I-485 filer, no good news for us! Mar/2000 is 2 years to now!
Look at other INS service centers, thay all are processing 2001\'s I-485 cases.
TSC has no progress in I-485 proseccing time at all.
Think about this:
With a bunch of I-140 approved in TSC, we\'ll get more and more I-485 cases come in. No wander there\'s no progress on I-485 processing time.
It looks like TSC take blind eyes on I-485 problem. Yes, there\'s poblems on I-485 cases. Don\'t you think so?
Without I-485 improving, the whole GC processing will not be improved even I-140 has improved.
So, what makes you happy?
TSC should do something to improve I-485 cases!
Look at other INS service centers, thay all are processing 2001\'s I-485 cases.
TSC has no progress in I-485 proseccing time at all.
Think about this:
With a bunch of I-140 approved in TSC, we\'ll get more and more I-485 cases come in. No wander there\'s no progress on I-485 processing time.
It looks like TSC take blind eyes on I-485 problem. Yes, there\'s poblems on I-485 cases. Don\'t you think so?
Without I-485 improving, the whole GC processing will not be improved even I-140 has improved.
So, what makes you happy?
TSC should do something to improve I-485 cases!
TSC new processing time 2/2
p5nxp600 and Gking analysis is good.
This is my thinking,
In december they had 69,000+ 485 cases, January this reduced to 60,000
and February to 43,000 cases. This means they processed 26,000+ cases
in two months.
Assuming they had 40 working days total for two months, they have to
process 650 cases per day. Which is 80 cases per hour. I don\'t know how days/hours it takes to process one case by one IIO.
So my guess (only based on numbers) is TSC is transferring cases to
other service centers. They have transferred only new cases, so they can dig out older cases. That is why their processing date didn\'t move.
Towards infinity.....
EB3 RD 4/2/01, ND 4/10/01, FP 3/20/02 TSC
p5nxp600 and Gking analysis is good.
This is my thinking,
In december they had 69,000+ 485 cases, January this reduced to 60,000
and February to 43,000 cases. This means they processed 26,000+ cases
in two months.
Assuming they had 40 working days total for two months, they have to
process 650 cases per day. Which is 80 cases per hour. I don\'t know how days/hours it takes to process one case by one IIO.
So my guess (only based on numbers) is TSC is transferring cases to
other service centers. They have transferred only new cases, so they can dig out older cases. That is why their processing date didn\'t move.
Towards infinity.....
EB3 RD 4/2/01, ND 4/10/01, FP 3/20/02 TSC
p5nxp600_2
Registered Users (C)
Excellent Analysis as well and I\'d like to add some additional conjecture ..
I say conjecture, because everything I say on these boards is exactly that. I am hoping its somewhat educated but none of it come from hard evidence.
Anyway, just an FYI the last update before this one took 2 months. So it was 26k drop in 3 months. However, the 26k drop has to be more. In those 3 months there were probably quite a few additional 485 cases filed.
The Lorenzo TSC Visit report (Usvisanews.com) 2nd article showed that there were some 381 TSC employees. But TSC processes other types of cases not just 485s. So lets assume 5 IIOs dedicated to 485 Cases. Lets say that the actual drop of cases was 30k and not 26k and this happened in a period of 90 days. Still a single IIO would have to be processing 12 cases/hour. I hardly doubt it.
Why did I bother to go through thi anaysis. Well, I bored and helps me to stay sane to think there is some ryhme or reason to the TSC.
I don\'t doubt there was probably some cases that got transferred to other Svc Centers. But, I don\'t think it was all 26k (or whatever number drop). It would make no sense for them to transfer the newer cases because no one is going to be ready for those.
It has to be some of the older cases that have already had their FP done and have been waiting a while (but their FP not expired). The recent trend shows that TSC is processing those that get FP done recently.
My guess has been that TSC has a team or some process of finding older cases and getting them worked on.
One thing I don\'t doubt is that TSC is trying to do something about the backlog and to have a process in place so it does not happen again.
Last, I still think they keep the processing date way back (2+ years) beause they can give a standard answer telling people calling that they have not got to a certain time period so they will have to wait. This is also probably why they have finally changed the AVM message (and soon you will see receipt notices) saying that 485 cases are taking 650 - 725 days. Again, this is so one can\'t call and say "well the AVM says 240-365 days and its ben 365+X number of days for my app".
I really hope I don\'t annoy anyone with my long winded posts. I just like to discuss things.
I say conjecture, because everything I say on these boards is exactly that. I am hoping its somewhat educated but none of it come from hard evidence.
Anyway, just an FYI the last update before this one took 2 months. So it was 26k drop in 3 months. However, the 26k drop has to be more. In those 3 months there were probably quite a few additional 485 cases filed.
The Lorenzo TSC Visit report (Usvisanews.com) 2nd article showed that there were some 381 TSC employees. But TSC processes other types of cases not just 485s. So lets assume 5 IIOs dedicated to 485 Cases. Lets say that the actual drop of cases was 30k and not 26k and this happened in a period of 90 days. Still a single IIO would have to be processing 12 cases/hour. I hardly doubt it.
Why did I bother to go through thi anaysis. Well, I bored and helps me to stay sane to think there is some ryhme or reason to the TSC.
I don\'t doubt there was probably some cases that got transferred to other Svc Centers. But, I don\'t think it was all 26k (or whatever number drop). It would make no sense for them to transfer the newer cases because no one is going to be ready for those.
It has to be some of the older cases that have already had their FP done and have been waiting a while (but their FP not expired). The recent trend shows that TSC is processing those that get FP done recently.
My guess has been that TSC has a team or some process of finding older cases and getting them worked on.
One thing I don\'t doubt is that TSC is trying to do something about the backlog and to have a process in place so it does not happen again.
Last, I still think they keep the processing date way back (2+ years) beause they can give a standard answer telling people calling that they have not got to a certain time period so they will have to wait. This is also probably why they have finally changed the AVM message (and soon you will see receipt notices) saying that 485 cases are taking 650 - 725 days. Again, this is so one can\'t call and say "well the AVM says 240-365 days and its ben 365+X number of days for my app".
I really hope I don\'t annoy anyone with my long winded posts. I just like to discuss things.
Why older cases??
Your conjecture was going great until you said old cases are being transferred. What is the logic behind it? They could have transferred new cases too (so that NSC or VSC processes them like they were their own jurisdiction cases)
They could have transferred old cases with FPs expired too. Becoz, FP is scheduled nationally and can be done by any service center.
So TSC has only 5 IIOs for 485 but also 1 or 2 to decide which cases get transferred?? Hmmm...
Regarding the report on processing times it reflects the fact or projected processing times at the time of generating those reports. Like an averge calculator/projector. i.e. the cases have been transferred but the improvements in processing times will be evident only next month. Should be interesting to see march\'s figures.
As you can see I am also bored and have nothing worthwhile to do...
Your conjecture was going great until you said old cases are being transferred. What is the logic behind it? They could have transferred new cases too (so that NSC or VSC processes them like they were their own jurisdiction cases)
They could have transferred old cases with FPs expired too. Becoz, FP is scheduled nationally and can be done by any service center.
So TSC has only 5 IIOs for 485 but also 1 or 2 to decide which cases get transferred?? Hmmm...
Regarding the report on processing times it reflects the fact or projected processing times at the time of generating those reports. Like an averge calculator/projector. i.e. the cases have been transferred but the improvements in processing times will be evident only next month. Should be interesting to see march\'s figures.
As you can see I am also bored and have nothing worthwhile to do...
p5nxp600_2
Registered Users (C)
Older cases because ...
Well I think older cases because those are the cases that need to get processed first, but if they stop to do older cases then they are going to get backlogged again.
We kind of know that TSC has been approving early 2001 cases to some degree. We can also assume they would not transfer cases that have got FP notices recently, because when FBI sends back results to the TSC the file would be in another center and matching up cases with FP could be a nightmare.
This only leaves them two types of cases to transfer. Old cases or more recent ones. If they transfer the newer cases then they (TSC) still has to focus on clearing out the old cases still. This would mean slow downs on late 2000 case / early 2001 cases. By the time they got back to them in full force they would have another backlog.
Also, if they transferred more recent cases those cases are not going to be processed by the other centers. Why would the other service centers process more recent TSC cases than their own ?
Now take a look at the scenario if they transffered old cases. It would mean a slow down for the other Centers in the processing date. But, it gives TSC a chance to work on the 2000 cases and the early 2001 cases. So, by the time the other Service Centers help clear out the old cases, TSC has done some catch up of their own in terms of processing date. When things get back to normal all the centers are processing AOS cases with the same RD/ND time.
Hard to explain what I am thinking in a post but hopefully you get the gist of it.
Well I think older cases because those are the cases that need to get processed first, but if they stop to do older cases then they are going to get backlogged again.
We kind of know that TSC has been approving early 2001 cases to some degree. We can also assume they would not transfer cases that have got FP notices recently, because when FBI sends back results to the TSC the file would be in another center and matching up cases with FP could be a nightmare.
This only leaves them two types of cases to transfer. Old cases or more recent ones. If they transfer the newer cases then they (TSC) still has to focus on clearing out the old cases still. This would mean slow downs on late 2000 case / early 2001 cases. By the time they got back to them in full force they would have another backlog.
Also, if they transferred more recent cases those cases are not going to be processed by the other centers. Why would the other service centers process more recent TSC cases than their own ?
Now take a look at the scenario if they transffered old cases. It would mean a slow down for the other Centers in the processing date. But, it gives TSC a chance to work on the 2000 cases and the early 2001 cases. So, by the time the other Service Centers help clear out the old cases, TSC has done some catch up of their own in terms of processing date. When things get back to normal all the centers are processing AOS cases with the same RD/ND time.
Hard to explain what I am thinking in a post but hopefully you get the gist of it.
GKing, you should\'t count 300 officer all work on I-485 cases. You just assume 10% work on I-485 ea
So, it will be 10 times longer than 2 months, which should be 20 months, about 610 days -- which is close to what message says "650-725 days" --- coinncident?! Probably NOT.
Also, we can\'t stipulate TSC transfer mass I-485 case to other centers, because we haven\'t seen any message posted saying that. Do you? Unless they change job to other location, but this is rare, like other transferred to TSC, those could be even and can be ignored.
But I do see lots of I-140 cases transfered to other center, so I-140 cases moved a lot: from 11/13/2001 to 12/16/2001, to 1/30/2002, to 4/1/2002, to 9/1/2002, -- just in 4 months, it moved 11 monthes. But I-485 cases don\'t moved a day at all! So that number of I-584 cases are reduced is not a substantial good news, it can be more at any time (when more I-140 comes faster than before as I-140 approved faster), unless I-485 processing time is moving!
So, like I said before, TSC should pay more attention to I-485 cases, which is the bottle-neck in whole GC processing!
Just correct you a little bit. I agree to your whole analysis!
Just 2 cents. no offense.
I like this thread, people are looking and thinking!
So, it will be 10 times longer than 2 months, which should be 20 months, about 610 days -- which is close to what message says "650-725 days" --- coinncident?! Probably NOT.
Also, we can\'t stipulate TSC transfer mass I-485 case to other centers, because we haven\'t seen any message posted saying that. Do you? Unless they change job to other location, but this is rare, like other transferred to TSC, those could be even and can be ignored.
But I do see lots of I-140 cases transfered to other center, so I-140 cases moved a lot: from 11/13/2001 to 12/16/2001, to 1/30/2002, to 4/1/2002, to 9/1/2002, -- just in 4 months, it moved 11 monthes. But I-485 cases don\'t moved a day at all! So that number of I-584 cases are reduced is not a substantial good news, it can be more at any time (when more I-140 comes faster than before as I-140 approved faster), unless I-485 processing time is moving!
So, like I said before, TSC should pay more attention to I-485 cases, which is the bottle-neck in whole GC processing!
Just correct you a little bit. I agree to your whole analysis!
Just 2 cents. no offense.
I like this thread, people are looking and thinking!
TSC processing ...
I like this thread..
I read from Murthy\'s site, TSC have priority to process I 140 faster. This way they can retrogress the priority dates. Don\'t know why these two are related. So lot of approved 140\'s in the past three months and months to come. This means more 485\'s to file and more way to clog
the TSC process pipeline.
We are getting some numbers thrown from TSC. I am not even sure this 43,000 is total 485\'s pending cases in TSC at that moment when the processing time is published. They are two years behind, if I average that 1800 cases filed per month. In the current speed they can process this in three months (hard to believe!!).
The reason they don\'t move the processing date, (same thinking like p5nxp600)
1. They can\'t find files still in the warehouse for some \'99 cases
2. They want to reduce support calls
3. Computerisation is done progressively so it can\'t help track certain cases.
4. Some cases are complicated.
5. This way they can move more cases to other centers and get the work
done. No need to ask for additional funding.
6. Many other unknown.....
We can only confirm if lot of people can post their information in this site. Even if they know some of their friend\'s got approval just post their RD, EB, FP and AD. This way we know what is really happening in TSC.
EB3 RD 4/2/01 ND 4/10/01 FP 3/20/02
I like this thread..
I read from Murthy\'s site, TSC have priority to process I 140 faster. This way they can retrogress the priority dates. Don\'t know why these two are related. So lot of approved 140\'s in the past three months and months to come. This means more 485\'s to file and more way to clog
the TSC process pipeline.
We are getting some numbers thrown from TSC. I am not even sure this 43,000 is total 485\'s pending cases in TSC at that moment when the processing time is published. They are two years behind, if I average that 1800 cases filed per month. In the current speed they can process this in three months (hard to believe!!).
The reason they don\'t move the processing date, (same thinking like p5nxp600)
1. They can\'t find files still in the warehouse for some \'99 cases
2. They want to reduce support calls
3. Computerisation is done progressively so it can\'t help track certain cases.
4. Some cases are complicated.
5. This way they can move more cases to other centers and get the work
done. No need to ask for additional funding.
6. Many other unknown.....
We can only confirm if lot of people can post their information in this site. Even if they know some of their friend\'s got approval just post their RD, EB, FP and AD. This way we know what is really happening in TSC.
EB3 RD 4/2/01 ND 4/10/01 FP 3/20/02
WatingForGC
New Member
Great Analysis
I like the analysis. I belive its true. Please post the latest. My RD 8/8/01, ND: 9/15/01. No FP, No EAD. Only AP
I like the analysis. I belive its true. Please post the latest. My RD 8/8/01, ND: 9/15/01. No FP, No EAD. Only AP
Well, I-485 will take longer than other cases.
If TSC doesn\'t catch up the I-485 cases, the backlog will come up in next fiscal year, which begins in Octbor, 2002.
...
And this will affect other INS centers, which may not have many backlogs. And then TSC will be slower and slower than the other center. The consequence maybe that TSC send some cases to the other centers (or want more money from federal goverment and want hire more people). This will speed up the I-485 processing in TSC and backlog will go away, but may still take 2 years to process.
...
It\'s in a cycle, isn\'t it? The history can prove this. Look at history from 1998 to now. The history may replay!
Anyway, the I-485 is the bottleneck in the whole GC processing now, and TSC really really need to do something about it. Otherwise, this problem will be worse!
If TSC doesn\'t catch up the I-485 cases, the backlog will come up in next fiscal year, which begins in Octbor, 2002.
...
And this will affect other INS centers, which may not have many backlogs. And then TSC will be slower and slower than the other center. The consequence maybe that TSC send some cases to the other centers (or want more money from federal goverment and want hire more people). This will speed up the I-485 processing in TSC and backlog will go away, but may still take 2 years to process.
...
It\'s in a cycle, isn\'t it? The history can prove this. Look at history from 1998 to now. The history may replay!
Anyway, the I-485 is the bottleneck in the whole GC processing now, and TSC really really need to do something about it. Otherwise, this problem will be worse!