How long is the wait time?

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IP User

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A USC Mother filed I-130 for her Adult Son over 21 years of age who is on Overstay and grandfathered under the 245i Labor Cert, never married. Received date/Priority date shows June 09, 2011 on I-787C. Paid $420 Application/Petition Fee. What is the next process. Approximately how long will it take for the Visa to be available?

On the USCIS shows, when you put in the Receipt Number, it shows dark blue in 'Initial Review'. Next step shows 'Decision' which grayed out.

The beneficiary would be in 'F1' category? When I looked at the April 2012 Visa Bulletin website, it shows April 1st of 2005. What does that mean?

Additional Info : USCIS National Goal - 5.0 Month(s)
USCIS National Average - 15.2 Month(s)
Texas Service Center - 5.0 Month(s)

Any advice?
 
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IP User said:
The beneficiary would be in 'F1' category? When I looked at the April 2012 Visa Bulletin website, it shows April 1st of 2005. What does that mean?
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It means the beneficiaries whose priority date is before April 1, 2005 are eligible to file the I-485 (or eligible for a consular interview, if they're outside the US) in April 2012 and complete the final formalities for green card approval. The son you mentioned will have to wait until the F1 category advances past June 9, 2011 ... so that's an expected wait of about 6 more years.
 
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Jackolantern said:
It means the beneficiaries whose priority date is before April 1, 2005 are eligible to file the I-485 (or eligible for a consular interview, if they're outside the US) in April 2012 and complete the final formalities for green card approval. The son you mentioned will have to wait until the F1 category advances past June 9, 2011 ... so that's an expected wait of about 6 more years.
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According to an attorney, it was 3-5 years from June of 2011. Is it possible that it will be sooner? What happens if an Immigration Reform and/or Dream Act passes before that?
 
IP User said:
According to an attorney, it was 3-5 years from June of 2011. Is it possible that it will be sooner? What happens if an Immigration Reform and/or Dream Act passes before that?
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The time from April 2005 to June 2011 is 6 years and 2 months. So if the category advances consistently and steadily, that's a bit more than 6 years it will take to reach June 2011.

Yes, it could speed up and take a shorter time than that. It could also take longer. Priority date movements can be haphazard sometimes. 6 years is a projected estimate, not a guarantee. 5 years would be optimistic, and 3 years very unlikely.
 
Jackolantern said:
The time from April 2005 to June 2011 is 6 years and 2 months. So if the category advances consistently and steadily, that's a bit more than 6 years it will take to reach June 2011.

Yes, it could speed up and take a shorter time than that. It could also take longer. Priority date movements can be haphazard sometimes. 6 years is a projected estimate, not a guarantee. 5 years would be optimistic, and 3 years very unlikely.
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So estimated time from today is 6 years and 2 months? Chances of speeding up? Do they have to pass some bill for that?
Has there been a time where it was doen faster then the estimated time? What if Immigration Reform passes?
 
IP User said:
Has there been a time where it was doen faster then the estimated time?
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Back in 2010 the F1 category dropped to 4 years. But before 2010 it typically was 5-7 years, and now it's back to 6 years. You can check the date trends yourself at
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html

What if Immigration Reform passes?
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If there is immigration reform, it probably won't help people in the F1 category. There is not much support for expanding the immigration of over-21 children and adult siblings. The proposed Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill that was debated a few years ago included a provision to phase out or tighten the F1, F2B, F3 and F4 categories.
 
Jackolantern said:
Back in 2010 the F1 category dropped to 4 years. But before 2010 it typically was 5-7 years, and now it's back to 6 years. You can check the date trends yourself at
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html


If there is immigration reform, it probably won't help people in the F1 category. There is not much support for expanding the immigration of over-21 children and adult siblings. The proposed Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill that was debated a few years ago included a provision to phase out or tighten the F1, F2B, F3 and F4 categories.
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Wow, 4 years is much better then 6 or 7. Why is it taking longer now? Is it because of less manpower out there? What if they expand the quotas?

What kind of support there is? I wonder why they chose the age from 21. CIR would phase out those categories but people would still qualify under CIR anyway. There is also the Dream Act which could pass before the elections.
 
IP User said:
Wow, 4 years is much better then 6 or 7. Why is it taking longer now?
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5-7 years is the usual time, and it has consistently been like that for well over a decade except for 2010. You should be asking why it dropped to 4 years in 2010, not why it's taking longer now. The explanation they gave for the faster progress in 2010 was that several people were abandoning the process or switching out to a different category (often by marrying a US citizen). That allowed them to clear out thousands of cases from that category and move the visa bulletin cutoff dates by a large jump. But that was an anomaly; don't expect that to happen again.

Is it because of less manpower out there? What if they expand the quotas?
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Expanding the quotas for over-21 children and adult siblings is very unlikely. They're not part of the core family (spouses and under-21 children), and there isn't much political support for expanding the quota for them. If they make changes, it would be to reduce or eliminate those categories.

I wonder why they chose the age from 21.
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21 used to be the age of legal adulthood in America before they dropped it to 18, and there are still some countries out there which have 19, 20, or 21 as the age of adulthood so it would be problematic for immigrant parents to leave their 19 or 20 year old children behind. So rather than dropping the cutoff to 18 under immigration law or having different cutoff ages for immigrants of different countries, they just keep it simple and fair by leaving the cutoff at 21 for everybody.

There is also the Dream Act which could pass before the elections.
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The Republicans are opposed to the Dream Act, and they are the majority in the House, so it won't pass before the elections.
 
Wait, wait and wait some more.

I've had an application in (F3) since 2003 and it is STILL 3 to 4 years out.

Your F1 catagory, backed up from April 1st, 2005 will take possibly up to 10 years to complete.

No chance of speeding it up.

Consider marrying a state Senator to get better chances...haha.
 
So in 2010, people were switching categories and that is good for F1's like me. Why isn't this happening now?
What if the 245i date is extended? Would that help?

If they eliminate them in the future then what happens to the application process?

They brought up the STARS and ARMS act but I saw the News that Rubio will introduce a new version of the Dream Act.

Since Democrats have all the momemtum now, it seems like Obama will win and Democrats may take back the House and add more seats in the Senate.

Jackolantern said:
5-7 years is the usual time, and it has consistently been like that for well over a decade except for 2010. You should be asking why it dropped to 4 years in 2010, not why it's taking longer now. The explanation they gave for the faster progress in 2010 was that several people were abandoning the process or switching out to a different category (often by marrying a US citizen). That allowed them to clear out thousands of cases from that category and move the visa bulletin cutoff dates by a large jump. But that was an anomaly; don't expect that to happen again.


Expanding the quotas for over-21 children and adult siblings is very unlikely. They're not part of the core family (spouses and under-21 children), and there isn't much political support for expanding the quota for them. If they make changes, it would be to reduce or eliminate those categories.


21 used to be the age of legal adulthood in America before they dropped it to 18, and there are still some countries out there which have 19, 20, or 21 as the age of adulthood so it would be problematic for immigrant parents to leave their 19 or 20 year old children behind. So rather than dropping the cutoff to 18 under immigration law or having different cutoff ages for immigrants of different countries, they just keep it simple and fair by leaving the cutoff at 21 for everybody.


The Republicans are opposed to the Dream Act, and they are the majority in the House, so it won't pass before the elections.
Click to expand...
 
cnTG6A

yellow211 said:
Wait, wait and wait some more.

I've had an application in (F3) since 2003 and it is STILL 3 to 4 years out.

Your F1 catagory, backed up from April 1st, 2005 will take possibly up to 10 years to complete.

No chance of speeding it up.

Consider marrying a state Senator to get better chances...haha.
Click to expand...

10 years? The estimated time right now is 6 years, 2 months though?
I have faith in Dick Durbin and Harry Reid to pass the Dream Act atleast. Democrats should take back the House come November.
 
IP User said:
I have faith in Dick Durbin and Harry Reid to pass the Dream Act atleast. Democrats should take back the House come November.
Click to expand...

There has been no significant reform of the immigration laws as long as I have been on these forums. People were talking about renewing 245i back in 2001 when it expired, and here we are over a decade later. During that time Congress has been controlled by the Republicans, the Democrats and split between the two. We've had a Republican and a Democratic president.

I've learned not to get too optimistic.
 
When can you see the next progress from the 'Initial Review'? How long will that take? How many Visas are given out in the F1 category overall?
 
IP User said:
So in 2010, people were switching categories and that is good for F1's like me. Why isn't this happening now?
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It's not happening now because it's unusual for people to switch categories en masse or abandon the green card process in large numbers. It may never happen again.

What if the 245i date is extended? Would that help?
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Your son is already eligible for 245i, so extending 245i wouldn't help him.

How many Visas are given out in the F1 category overall?
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23400 per year.
 
Jackolantern said:
It's not happening now because it's unusual for people to switch categories en masse or abandon the green card process in large numbers. It may never happen again.


Your son is already eligible for 245i, so extending 245i wouldn't help him.


23400 per year.
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If the 23,400 is extended then the process is faster?
 
IP User said:
If the 23,400 is extended then the process is faster?
Click to expand...

If they increased the quota that would decrease the wait time, but that's like saying if I won the lottery I would be richer.

They're not going to increase the quota for that category. It hasn't changed in decades, there is no political support for increasing it, while there is support to decrease or eliminate that category.
 
What happens if CIR and/or Dream Act passes? I would have to cancel my current process?

If CIR is passed, do they re-write the laws of immigration? What happens to the 1996 laws?
 
IP User said:
What happens if CIR and/or Dream Act passes? I would have to cancel my current process? If CIR is passed, do they re-write the laws of immigration? What happens to the 1996 laws?
Click to expand...

Since no one knows what the law would be, no one can answer this question.
 
For F1, it shows they F1 would use F4 unused slots? There is new news on the I-601A waiver to reduce wait times. Would that help?
 
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