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High case numbers for DV-2015

Cardiogenic

Cardiogenic

New Member
Dear Bros,
Our CN is 2015EU45XXX,
Frankly, we are not hopeful for the interview.
We would like to apply to DV-2016.
What I want to learn is that if you have ever heard of any higher cn than ours.
I wish good luck for all those who have small cn.
 
Cardiogenic said:
Dear Bros,
Our CN is 2015EU45XXX,
Frankly, we are not hopeful for the interview.
We would like to apply to DV-2016.
What I want to learn is that if you have ever heard of any higher cn than ours.
I wish good luck for all those who have small cn.
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Yes 2014EU53xxx, however such high numbers never became current. 2014 indicates that the upper limit is low 40ies for EU.
 
OC 15xx here. That number is touch and go for OC. I'm relying on a low uptake and a high quota. Frustrating stuff. DV2016, here I come.
 
connectedspace said:
OC 15xx here. That number is touch and go for OC. I'm relying on a low uptake and a high quota. Frustrating stuff. DV2016, here I come.
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The prediction is for an increase in OC quota of around 80 - 100 - so that should be enough to get you in, but it will be close....
 
NaraLB said:
I guess that makes sense!
However @Britsimon depending on these numbers, what do you think the final cutoffs for DV-2015 will be? Any ideas for Asia?
Thanks :)
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I (and I'm sure others) have to do some work to get decent numbers (case number estimates), but as you can see, there is not much change for Asia, so for now we should probably consider DV2014 numbers a good guide for Asia.
 
connectedspace said:
You're too generous. Group effort then. I guess we need to wait till next year to get final numbers of AoS cases. Did you base your estimate of 80-100 AoS visas on past data?
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I checked the data for AoS globally - but couldn't find it by region. However, I reasoned that "developed" world would tend to have more AoS cases, and that the E3 visa in particular would have resulted in an uptick for Aussies being in the USA already (on top of all the existing temp visa routes). Obviously with the numbers we are talking about a couple of larger than average families would skew the numbers for OC.
 
Britsimon said:
Well a quota increase of 100 would probably increase CNs by at least 200 (CNs to visas issued was around 2:1 in DV2014)
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Not so fast!
The cut-off 1450 includes AoS visas. If the predictions are applicable to OC region those make up a considerable part of the visas issued. So the factor 2 is clearly false. Since the real case numbers in OC are more or less uniformly distributed you can simply look at the growth factor 843/769=1.096 in the predictions. So the cut-off might be at 1450*1.096=1590. This is valid only if DV2015 goes as deep into the NACARA allowance as DV2014 did (2.5k?), which I doubt. It's more likely that we see a cut-off at 1575 (2k) or at 1560 (1.5k) - - still quite a bit of NACARA. It will be less if DV2014 has reclaimed 3k.

@connectedspace: Sorry!
 
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DV4ROGER said:
Not so fast!
The cut-off 1450 includes AoS visas. If the predictions are applicable to OC region those make up a considerable part of the visas issued. So the factor 2 is clearly false. Since the real case numbers in OC are more or less uniformly distributed you can simply look at the growth factor 843/769=1.096 in the predictions. So the cut-off might be at 1450*1.096=1590. This is valid only if DV2015 goes as deep into the NACARA allowance as DV2014 did (2.5k?), which I doubt. It's more likely that we see a cut-off at 1575 (2k) or at 1560 (1.5k) - - still quite a bit of NACARA. It will be less if DV2014 has reclaimed 3k.

@connectedspace: Sorry!
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I think you are on the pessimistic side there - I would see your numbers (1560/1575) to be on the low side. About Nacara - the allocation is 5k, but the numbers actually used are <200 per year now - so it would not be a surprise to see that we have used 3k this year and there is no reason not to do that again. I'm not sure I understand why you think 3K in DV2014 will reduce DV2015 - I don't see the connection.

I also think they would have issued over the 50770 number (i.e. continued issuing AF visas) had they not run out of time.
 
Well, it depends on how you look at the NACARA visas. I think DoS/KCC are planning with 50k diversity visas in mind and use NACARA only if they have to make some corrections to current quotas to meet the targeted ones. This happens at the end of the fiscal year. Sort of a reservoir.
If they wanted they could have easily issued more than 300 visas a day. They had loads of AP cases for months, plenty of time to get them resolved. They didn't. They just used as much NACARA as necessary, until the quotas were close enough.
So if 1450 was good for 3k - - because they messed up EU and AS considerably - -, but they actually wanted as little as possible, say 1.5k, the cut-off they had aimed at would have been 1450/1.06*1.03=1409 and that's lower than 1450/1.05*1.03=1422. Downscaling from 3k to 1.5k, instead from 2.5k to 1.5k.

You have never seen that many NACARA visas in previous years. Either they changed their policy regarding NACARA or they simply messed up. I tend to favor the latter. And I wouldn't bank on a replay.
 
DV4ROGER said:
Well, it depends on how you look at the NACARA visas. I think DoS/KCC are planning with 50k diversity visas in mind and use NACARA only if they have to make some corrections to current quotas to meet the targeted ones. This happens at the end of the fiscal year. Sort of a reservoir.
If they wanted they could have easily issued more than 300 visas a day. They had loads of AP cases for months, plenty of time to get them resolved. They didn't. They just used as much NACARA as necessary, until the quotas were close enough.
So if 1450 was good for 3k - - because they messed up EU and AS considerably - -, but they actually wanted as little as possible, say 1.5k, the cut-off they had aimed at would have been 1450/1.06*1.03=1409 and that's lower than 1450/1.05*1.03=1422. Downscaling from 3k to 1.5k, instead from 2.5k to 1.5k.

You have never seen that many NACARA visas in previous years. Either they changed their policy regarding NACARA or they simply messed up. I tend to favor the latter. And I wouldn't bank on a replay.
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No the reason we haven't seen more NACARA visas used in previous years is because they exhausted the selectees. As a reaction to that they used the sledgehammer solution of increasing the selectee count by 30% (with disastrous results). =

If you ran your quota calcs against DV2013 you would see that EU was underfilled and AF was overfilled against quota. That would be an interesting exercise and show that the quotas are not "hard and fast" - even though I am very happy you did the calcs.
 
Good point. So you think they will try hard to give away as many visas as possible, if only the diversity intent is fulfilled? If so I'm happy about it, of course!
 
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