Here is the reason, why June visa bulliton jumped by 2 years..

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perm_lc

Registered Users (C)
Omdusman report for 2007 is available.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/CISOMB_Annual Report_2007.pdf

USCIS is reported that as on May 2007, if cutoff dates ate not moved significantly, it will result in loss of about 40,000 EB visas at the end of sep 2007. Thats the reason for movment in June.

Addtional interestinf data, from 1992 to 2006 about 216,000 EB visas were unused and lost. This excludes AC21 recapture in 2001 and 50,000 nurses visas in 2004. This is the speed of USCIS...
 
perm_lc,

Wow!!!. Precise information to understand current and future visa cut-off movement. 40K Visa!!!.
Thanks for the info.
 
If CIS Ombudsman estimated that 40k visas would left for FY2007....it would mean that usage by end of May/Jun 2007 ( 9 months of 12 month fiscal year...)....would have fallen short by about 3/4 of 40K = about 30K visas by May/Jun 07 out of 105k total (3/4th of 140K).......

so only about 75K total visas were used by May/Jun 07....(out of 105K...)

Does this mean that EB3 ROW is not using it's quota?
If so, then EB3 ROW may become currect in the coming months....
Definitely by Oct 08...and India/China may no longer be retrogressed???
 
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Based on this, I assume that till May 2007 they might have issued EB visas some where between 50,000 and 70,000 only. About 70,000 to 90,000 visas should be given in June, July, Aug and September to maximize the usage to 140K. Thats why Nebraska Service center requested 10,000 visas in june. I hope that every month from june to Sep both NSC and TSC will approve about 10,000 EB visas, so that the total will become 80,000 in Sep.

This is what I can predicting based on available facts. I may be wrong too. I cant predict how exactly this 10,000 visas per month turn into cut-off date movement.
 
"If the priority date became current today, due to delayed USCIS processing and thus underutilization of visa numbers, some have predicted that within a few months as many as 500,000 to 750,000 individuals now residing in the United States under a temporary worker visa could apply for a green card. Additionally, DOL’s recent backlog elimination efforts, scheduled to be completed by September 30, 2007, are predicted to add 70,000 or more approved labor certifications yielding as many as 170,000 additional green card applications. As USCIS begins to complete these applications and request visa numbers from DOS, the 140,000 statutorily authorized visa numbers will be used."
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That's why EB3 RAW will not be current in the near future.
 
Lot of people have been worrying about DOL backlog traffic....but Murthy clearly pointed out that lot of those labors are not getting used or getting thrown away.....and hence the DOL backlog elimination is not materializing...


Another thing - think of EB3 ROW Cut off Date?
What date, is it stuck at, 01JUN05...for ROW retrogression began in 01 JUL 05 (though for Ind/China it bagan in Jan 05)
after Jul 05....ROW pretty much could not apply for 485....except for pending backlog applications....

So, in a way, ROW backlog has a complete GREEN signal....to come up and use the visa numbers....

the only petitions after Jul 05 are the new PERM approved petitions....

So, as far as EB3 ROW is concerned....IT'S CURRENT....Come on, all the old applications can come and take the visa numbers as much as they want!

Except, PERM applicants....who are kind of being put on a 2 YEAR BREAK....from Jul 05 to Jul 07...and this traffic will take 6 months to impact visa number usage (due to 6 month 485 processing timeline)...So, this traffic can only have a cascading effect on visa number usage...if the dates are pushed forward these guys now, the traffic will hit DOS Visa office after 6 months!
 
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In fact if, EB3 ROW needs to be put forward from 01JUN05....it will have to be pushed by 1 year....or better still made Current....U know why...because the reason the dates are pushed forward is because, the visa numbers need to be cosumed...

Since from 01JUN05...nobody has their I485 applied....alll these would be new petitions and it would take 6 monhts for them...to use Visa numbers...
 
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The same would hold true for the 70k applicants in the backlog centers...if they apply now, the demand will only materialize in 6 months...
 
I tend to agree with banta4gc regarding old labors. My old labor and a bunch of other labors of my coworkers were stuck in backlog. These are now cleared but we were laid off and the co. was sold. No one is using these labors for anything. Basically all these labor approvals (and our money and efforts) have gone down the drain. If this is wide spread or not I do not know. If a sizeable number of labors will be unused it will create that much unused visa numbers. Lets hope for the best.
 
perm_lc said:
Omdusman report for 2007 is available.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/CISOMB_Annual Report_2007.pdf

USCIS is reported that as on May 2007, if cutoff dates ate not moved significantly, it will result in loss of about 40,000 EB visas at the end of sep 2007. Thats the reason for movment in June.

Addtional interestinf data, from 1992 to 2006 about 216,000 EB visas were unused and lost. This excludes AC21 recapture in 2001 and 50,000 nurses visas in 2004. This is the speed of USCIS...
Click to expand...

That's a great job. One more thing, what is your PD?
 
From the looks of it, the CIS ombudsman report at least gave us some insight to the visa number usage.......one can accurately predit movement of visa dates baseed on this....

I am guessing, the fact that DOL labors getting thrown into trash....is surprisingly keeping the demand low and for EB3-ROW......it may soon be current or reduced to 1 year wait or so....

Unluckily, the demand in PERM system (from Mar 06 to Mar 07 - 130k petitions were applied)...if we assume 100K of these are from ROW...and assuming 1 additional dependent for each petitioner...the ROW demand seems to be holding steady at 200K or so.....

I am afraid EB3-ROW may never be current....except for a short time, possibly
 
banta4gc said:
Lot of people have been worrying about DOL backlog traffic....but Murthy clearly pointed out that lot of those labors are not getting used or getting thrown away.....and hence the DOL backlog elimination is not materializing...


Another thing - think of EB3 ROW Cut off Date?
What date, is it stuck at, 01JUN05...for ROW retrogression began in 01 JUL 05 (though for Ind/China it bagan in Jan 05)
after Jul 05....ROW pretty much could not apply for 485....except for pending backlog applications....

So, in a way, ROW backlog has a complete GREEN signal....to come up and use the visa numbers....

the only petitions after Jul 05 are the new PERM approved petitions....

So, as far as EB3 ROW is concerned....IT'S CURRENT....Come on, all the old applications can come and take the visa numbers as much as they want!

Except, PERM applicants....who are kind of being put on a 2 YEAR BREAK....from Jul 05 to Jul 07...and this traffic will take 6 months to impact visa number usage (due to 6 month 485 processing timeline)...So, this traffic can only have a cascading effect on visa number usage...if the dates are pushed forward these guys now, the traffic will hit DOS Visa office after 6 months!
Click to expand...

Now BEC has completed almost all the backlogg LCs. However, no one knows how many number of LC (pre-PERM) will make to 485. I think still it is a huge number. Furthermore, LC subsitutuin has one more month. Now lot of LCs available in market. Every one rust to file LC sub before it ends. One of my friend who has 140 filed with PD in 2007, got a pleasnt surprise from his employer. His employers has given him optin to use 3 LCs (2002 and 2003 PDs) recently approved from BEC thro Labor subsitution. If he does not use, it will be wasted. Now he filed 485 in june. If many cases goes like this before deadline, the equation will get changed completly.
 
I miss Saras, I hope he is still monitoring this forum just out of habit


this pretty much proves Saras theory which he all along said that retrogress is due to ineffeciency of these agencies

and UN in his rude way always brought many argument it was due to deman

anyway I feel good as this comes from horse mouth or may I say Donkyes
 
guldukan said:
I miss Saras, I hope he is still monitoring this forum just out of habit


this pretty much proves Saras theory which he all along said that retrogress is due to ineffeciency of these agencies

and UN in his rude way always brought many argument it was due to deman

anyway I feel good as this comes from horse mouth or may I say Donkyes
Click to expand...

Do you think, July Visa bulletin also move 2 years for EB3 India?
 
Great find, congratulations!

Thank you for finding and posting this report. Speed of USCIS is certainly one aspect. You should remember the rules relating to country quota were relaxed only in the AC21 act. So, wastage prior to that was 'legal requirement'. Secondly, if USCIS is slow (and probably more methodical too), you need to understand that they were under terrible spotlight after issuing a visa to ...

Best of luck to all!

H

perm_lc said:
Omdusman report for 2007 is available.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/CISOMB_Annual Report_2007.pdf

USCIS is reported that as on May 2007, if cutoff dates ate not moved significantly, it will result in loss of about 40,000 EB visas at the end of sep 2007. Thats the reason for movment in June.

Addtional interestinf data, from 1992 to 2006 about 216,000 EB visas were unused and lost. This excludes AC21 recapture in 2001 and 50,000 nurses visas in 2004. This is the speed of USCIS...
Click to expand...
 
I browsed through the 145 page PDF. We know the USCIS is inefficient, but seeing the details is mind blowing and scary. They really work extra hard at becoming so inefficient. For example:
The applicant applied for an employment-based green card in late 1997. In early 2001, a service center where the application was filed transferred it to a local office. The local office interviewed the applicant and his wife and, subsequently, transferred the application back to the service center. Next, the service center transferred the file back to the local office and, in the middle of 2003, the couple had another interview. The local office transferred the file again to the service center. Subsequently, the service center again transferred it to the local office in late 2004. Since then, the applicant and his wife have been unable to obtain case status information. In early May 2007, the Ombudsman learned that the file had been at the National Records Center and was sent back to the local office at the end of 2006. The case remains pending.
Click to expand...
 
Thank You

perm_lc said:
Omdusman report for 2007 is available.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/CISOMB_Annual Report_2007.pdf

USCIS is reported that as on May 2007, if cutoff dates ate not moved significantly, it will result in loss of about 40,000 EB visas at the end of sep 2007. Thats the reason for movment in June.

Addtional interestinf data, from 1992 to 2006 about 216,000 EB visas were unused and lost. This excludes AC21 recapture in 2001 and 50,000 nurses visas in 2004. This is the speed of USCIS...
Click to expand...

perm_lc : for posting this and opening up a very good discusssion indeed. In a nutshell-
1. I was thinking - Although, USCIS is ready to give lot of VISAs before the end of the current fiscal year 2007, if one is stuck in FBI name check these VISAs go waste right? Can USCIS exert any pressure on FBI to expedite the NC process to people get their approvals?
2. Does this give people who apply their 485 in June any hope to see their approvals before Sep'30 2007?
Or is 4 months too short a time to get their 485 approvals?
3. I appreciate if someone can share the quickest 485 approval that they know of...
I look forward to expert comments from all you gurus...
 
DBEC_Labor_Pain said:
perm_lc : for posting this and opening up a very good discusssion indeed. In a nutshell-
1. I was thinking - Although, USCIS is ready to give lot of VISAs before the end of the current fiscal year 2007, if one is stuck in FBI name check these VISAs go waste right? Can USCIS exert any pressure on FBI to expedite the NC process to people get their approvals?
2. Does this give people who apply their 485 in June any hope to see their approvals before Sep'30 2007?
Or is 4 months too short a time to get their 485 approvals?
3. I appreciate if someone can share the quickest 485 approval that they know of...
I look forward to expert comments from all you gurus...
Click to expand...

Now all of sudden USCIS has more work on 485. They have to approve old 485s as well as they need to process new filings. Also they neend to approve only 140K 485s before sep 07. Typically 485 process take anywhere between 4 months to 3 years. 6 months is a goal. If you are so lucky and cutoff date does not move back, your 485 may get approved in 4 months. But is very less chance.
 
This report is awesome in the sense gives such a blunt warning.

What I would also like to know is what happens to cases like mine who are waiting for BACKGROUND CHECK ( from the report it appears that all except NAME CHECK responsd fast)? For example, I filed my 485 in Dec 2002 and from what I hear Background check incl name check is initiated following 485 submission.
I will soon celebrate 60 months of pending time:)

No matter how much they advance the PDs , loss of visas are imminent as there are tonnes of folks waiting for name check clearence.

Not even god can save this.

I wonder when USCIS will register their "company" in NYSE.. After all its bottom line.

My first job after gaining US Citizenship will be USCIS ,, nice job,,, no accountability:)
 
That is why I say we need to get united and ask the Ombudsman to help us by holding USCIS accountable. Please look at the NSC thread. We have received a response from the Ombudsman office and we need your cooperation to resolve this problem. Please go to the NSC thread and read Letter to Ombudsman thread.

Some members had got together and contacted Ombudsman office to make them aware about how NSC was using excuse of poor staffing and ignorance about number of files becoming current - so that they can slowly process cases. Well unless we inform the watch dogs, we can only suffer in silence or on complaining on this forum.
 
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