bichop
Registered Users (C)
yeah, for example if you're not selected in DV-2012 and you didn't clear your browser's cache and cookies, you'll get not selected in DV-2013 even if the DoS have chosen you as a winner.
good news.........More entries will be selected in early October 2012
- Thread starter unfaithful
- Start date
yeah, for example if you're not selected in DV-2012 and you didn't clear your browser's cache and cookies, you'll get not selected in DV-2013 even if the DoS have chosen you as a winner.
unfaithful
Registered Users (C)
so what do you guy think about the number of the people who will be selected on early October?! are they going to choose a huge amount of them or just few thousands?! and what share would be taken place for Africa,Asia and Europe...........
in the previous 4 months ,included August people still get email back from KKC when they were asking if their forms were recieved and correct ,that they are having a huge volume of applicants ,wich means a very big percentage of winners have been checked their status and also send their forms,so the question is Why KKC would like to pick up more winners?
in the previous 4 months ,included August people still get email back from KKC when they were asking if their forms were recieved and correct ,that they are having a huge volume of applicants ,wich means a very big percentage of winners have been checked their status and also send their forms,so the question is Why KKC would like to pick up more winners?
Qewty
Registered Users (C)
Just looking at the numbers for the Oceanic region, registered applicants for DV 2013 is already on par with previous years, therefore I can't really see a reason why they would choose more.
Emotionally I want them to choose more, but realistically I don't understand why they would need to.
The only positive would be that of the numbers registered, only some of them may have decided to go through with it, so perhaps the reason they might.
Such an unknown really.
Q
Emotionally I want them to choose more, but realistically I don't understand why they would need to.
The only positive would be that of the numbers registered, only some of them may have decided to go through with it, so perhaps the reason they might.
Such an unknown really.
Q
unfaithful
Registered Users (C)
the question still why do they really need to selecte more people on October?
As you probably know, they decreased visa fees between January and April 2012 (in 2 stages) from $819 to $330. That was done in order to attract more visa applicants, as they experienced lack of visa applications. Because more visa applicants were attracted, they decreased the number of open winners in DV-2013 compared to DV-2012.
At this point they are not sure about the number of applications because they did not have a lot of experience with new visa fees by May 1st when they opened winners (new fees are in effect since mid April only). That is why they might need to open more winners.
At this point they are not sure about the number of applications because they did not have a lot of experience with new visa fees by May 1st when they opened winners (new fees are in effect since mid April only). That is why they might need to open more winners.
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Would this be construed to mean that COs r being under utilized?
I would tend to think the turnout in 2012 was poor due to the redraw.Another factor contributing to the poor turnout might be checking ur status on ESc as opposed to receiving postal mail. Obviously,many have lost their confirmation numbers wherever they stored them & thus wont be able to know their status unless reminded via email like in 2012.
Even with the new fees,$330 per applicant is no meagre amount of which we r not including the cost of medicals,certs,airfare & dough to survive on after landing stateside.
Referring to the above statement,does this mean I don't have 69k selectees(or thereabouts) ahead of me?How sure are u that we do have gaps in between the CN?
M
mdawoodm
Guest
I agree with you absolutely on the gaps. For instance, we have 16000 winners for Asia this year. If we divide that no. by the no. of months, we will get 1600 interviews, rougly, per month. How come we have 1900 for October this year. Also, Africa has got 8000 cut-off number for October. Does that mean 8000 Africans will be interviewed in October? Ofcourse, not! Gaps exist within that 1900 for Asia. And one more thing, I am damn sure that Asia starts with 12 case number this year. Where are the other 11 case numbers. I am sure those other 11 case numbers belong to a different continent. To support this theory, let's see the cut-off number for Africa which is 8000. Do you think African case numbers would start from 1-8000, absolutely not. African case numbers start from where Europe ends. And, again, there could still be gaps within those numbers.
Wishing everybody best of luck!
This could be due to poor turnout by selectees thus the VO has to allocate more numbers.
The Oct cut-off for Africa has always been around this figure thus its no surprise.On another note,not all Africans reside in Africa;majority of US consulates globally can process a selectee irrespective of ur nationality & remember we do have AOS for those already in the US.
Perhaps....
hmmm.....
We have Nigerians with very low CNs.
how about u back up this statement...
It is possible...
M
mdawoodm
Guest
See, my point is that they mix all the case numbers so that a balance is achieved. And case numbers are never equal to the total no. of winners for a continent. Last year we had 16000 Asian winners and the case numbers went upto 65000. But, case numbers are surely equal to the total no. of winners for the whole world. Suppose we have 1-1900 Asia, 1900-5700 Europe, and 5700-8000 Africa, I think it maybe possible. Again Asians 1-11 don't exit. These gaps mayb filled by cases from other countries, even from Africa as well. And 5700-8000 also may contain gaps which will be filled by Asians or Europeans. This way a balance is maintanined and all the continents are interviewed equally, so that one continent does not wait until the second continent to finish. But, at the end, we will have case numbers like this for the whole world. 1-100000, which is absolutely equal to the total no. of DV winners around the world. And one more thing, the cut-off number for one contienent starts from wherer the other ends. If you don't agree with me on this, then you have to agree with this number, which is absolutely incorrect, and doesn't make any logic.
Asia 1-1900
Europe-1-5700
Africa 1-8000
But I am saying the same thing again, within 1900, 5700, 8000, there are gaps which maybe filled by the other continents, to achieve balance.
And I have another challenge, show me two same case numbers for two different contientns. i.e. 2012AS00009999 and 2012AF00009999. Such case numbers don't exist, and have never existed.
Agreed.
Why not?? The CNs individually should amount to the total number of winners.
This analogy I understand but equality in the DV??.Africa almost gets 50% or thereabouts of the DV allocation with the rest being divided across the continents.This is probably due to other types of visas (work & family) being used up by the other continents.
Definitely.
For Kenya alone,we have 4 CNs below 5700 of which 2 of them have already received their 2nd NLs;how do u explain that from ur above statement.
What I know is this,there are at least 4 Kenyans with CNs below 5700.The October cut-offs for Egypt,Ethiopia & Nigeria is 5500 which is below 5700..Obviously KCC/VO knows something that we don't know of which they would rather keep to themselves.
M
mdawoodm
Guest
Oh my dear, you are picking and reading each sentence of mine individually, read the whole passage, and read them in context.
You don't agree that "case numbers are never equal to the total no. of winners for a continent."
Then what do you say about this, last year 16000 Asian winners, and 65000 case numbers. Do you mean that we had 65000 Asian winners last year, absolutely not.
And as I have said in my reply, that Africans below 5700 could exist, there is no doubt about it. Asians about 5700 could also exist. This is some kind of mechanism to achieve balancing. And KCC must be using a very complex algorithm to achieve the case number, we certainly don't know all about that algorithm. I am just pointing a specific aspect of it.
And again, case numbers for a continent is not equal to the no. of winners for that contienent,a nd we can't have two same case numbers for two differet continents.
And please read all of my passage, don't just pick one sentence out of context!
M
mdawoodm
Guest
And by the way, what do you think about the November bulletin???
Cut-off numbers for Africa, Asia, and Europe?????????????????
Cut-off numbers for Africa, Asia, and Europe?????????????????
Words >> sentences >> paragraph >> Story,fairy tale,editorial piece.etc...you get the drift.
I've read ur whole piece but what I don't agree with I highlight so that u can address it specifically.
I do agree with this statement.It further supports Raevsky's theory that there are hidden winners.the 65000 number might have been achieved during the drawing process whereby the number of disqualifications was high such as to achieve such a high figure.
Consecutively,YES since it means I would have been locked out way b4.
just because we haven't seen any doesn't mean they don't exist;we have 105,628 winners & yet this forum captures only 100 or so winners(probably less) yet it is the most informative.
U r accountable for every letter & thus my breakdown points to ur contradiction.If we break it down to facts & explain each in point form,this would go down much easier as compared to a paragraph.
Given they haven't deviated much from Dv2012(AF case),I would say the last year's timetable would be sufficient for now.
M
mdawoodm
Guest
Asia had 8000 in October last year, while 1900 this year. It had 10000 for November last year, would they jump so high for November this yar? It looks a bit strange to me, but I have no reason not to believe it!
AS guys must be having very low CNs no wonder the 1900 cut-off;given our recent conversation,it would be very hard to tell since we don't know the spread of the CNs thus it could move faster or slower.Dec latest u should b current given how they've set the pace.
The same number could exist in different regions. Lottery for different regions are completely independent, except that quotas for regions sum up to the world quota.
Gaps are because of manual selection process. The numbers looked at and rejected (because of duplicates or other reasons) do not loose their number, even though they no longer participate, that create gaps.
Gaps are because of manual selection process. The numbers looked at and rejected (because of duplicates or other reasons) do not loose their number, even though they no longer participate, that create gaps.
What do you mean? Why do you think it is 12? It could be 1 or 2 or whatever.
