FY2007 - Oct Bull Guess - Who hits the mark?

[kamrans]

So what do u expect for EB3 ROW and others.

Thanks.

There were some changes when ac21 came into affect.

Before, the 7% limit was by category (ie, eb1, eb2, eb3). If eb1 India was retrogressed, they could not use the visas from eb1 rest of the world unless rest of the world was current in all categories. That is eb2 rest of the world had preference on unused visas in eb1. Also, the spillover of unused visas wouldn't happen until the fourth quarter of uscis fiscal year.

Ac21 allowed unused visas from eb1 rest of the world to go to eb1 retrogressed countries. This was the first preference, even if rest of the world was retrogressed in below categories.

However, it appears that this year, they suspended this provision and went back to old system. That is any unused eb1 rest of the world visas went to eb2 rest of the world which then went to eb3 rest of the world.

When all is said and done, India, China, Mexico, Phillipines in eb1-eb3 were not allowed to go above the 7% quota.

I wouldn't get too upset about this. Main reason is that India took up too many greencards last year that should have been used up by rest of the world in eb3. A whole category cannot go unavailable unless the retrogressed countries only used up 7% of the visas and rest of the world took up all of their's. However, India got these visas when they shouldn't have from rest of the world.

 

[saras76]

CIR is history ...

I agree ..it must be irritating for you I guess since yr PD is aug 01 ..so close yet so far .I had a quick question, is the SKIL bill the same as the comprehensive immigration reform. the analysts on TV network seem to think that comp immi reform may be history ?

mariner555,

All reports indicate that CIR is history. It has been offically rejected by the House of Reps. As for SKIL, that bill is still out there but I don't see it becoming law anytime soon. We have to understand that this problem of retrogression is viewed as "ours" alone. Lawmakers, US citizens and corporations don't really care about this situation. It makes sense to me. Why should they worry about something that is not affecting them. Infact it is good for them because immigration is being checked, taxes are being collected and skilled workers are being retained. I do not really see a political solution to this problem. The only way we will get relief is if our EB3 provisions make it onto another bill that has provisions that are actually important to lawmakers, citizens and corporations. This might sound like a cynical view but its time to stop kidding ourselves.

regards,

saras76

 

[saras76]

Eb3 Row

So what do u expect for EB3 ROW and others.

Thanks.

kamran,

From what I gather if DOS/USCIS allows the spill over from EB1 and EB2 to EB3 ROW then it will progress nicely. It may even get into 2003. If that does not happen then the dates may be pulled back to April-May '01. Again its all speculation and nothing is for certain. If the DOS/USCIS can take visas from here and there and give it to any other category then whose to say what they might do next. They have a free hand within the loop hole laden laws to allocate visas as they please.

regards,

saras

 

[gingging]

Hi every one. It would be really nice if some one can explain to me as to how this 2800 visa numbers per year is divided.
thanks in advance

 

[saras76]

Visa quotas

Hi every one. It would be really nice if some one can explain to me as to how this 2800 visa numbers per year is divided.
thanks in advance

gingging,

At the start of the year there are a total of 140,000 visas alloted to the EB3 category. There is a 7% cap for Indians, Chinese and Mexicans because their numbers tend to be much greater than other countries. When dates were current these caps were not being strictly applied but in times of retro the 7% cap is being applied to India, China and Mexcio EB3s. 7% of 140,000 9,800 and of these about 50% will go to spouses and dependents. So basically only about 4000 of so Eb3 visas are available India EB3s each year. I maybe be missing a few things here and there but this is pretty much a basic explaination.

regards,

saras

 

[ufo2002]

I have doubts that USCIS did the spillover for Oct 2005 bulletin when EB3 World came out from Unavailable to March 2001 at that time. If they did, I am sure we didn't need to retro 4+ years. USCIS never hinted in any bulletin that EB1/EB2 RoW demand were high enough to have potential retro themselves. But like you already said, they have free hand so we will only know if they did spillover in Oct06 bulletin when we see the bulletin.

kamran,

From what I gather if DOS/USCIS allows the spill over from EB1 and EB2 to EB3 ROW then it will progress nicely. It may even get into 2003. If that does not happen then the dates may be pulled back to April-May '01. Again its all speculation and nothing is for certain. If the DOS/USCIS can take visas from here and there and give it to any other category then whose to say what they might do next. They have a free hand within the loop hole laden laws to allocate visas as they please.

regards,

saras

 

[garg_gaurav]

with 675 new numbers for each quarter dates will move 1 and a half month every month

with 675 visas each quarter and backlogs being cleared and not counting unused visa numbers, dates should move a month or month and a half forward every past month from their current state. We would be lucky if the dates keep moving forward
Predictions/No miracles
EB3- June 2001
EB2 - March 2003

 

[upimmi]

new link for oct. bulletin posted

New link is posted @ http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3032.html

but the page itself not.

 

[ufo2002]

So we might see it by end of today.... interesting, a Tuesday bulletin.

New link is posted @ http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3032.html

but the page itself not.

 

[santa4u]

sfmars is the winner

Here are the winners,

I would declare sfmars really as the winner as he hit EB2 ROW prediction....(most accurate & most difficult)

/* Winners in their prediction categories */

madgu-gc2005 > EB2 ROW - Current

sfmars > EB3 RoW - May 2002

bharatpremi > EB2 - ROW: MAY/JUNE 2005 OR Almost current
> EB3 - INDIA: April 15 2001

aawara > EB2 - ROW : Current
> EB3 - India : April 2001


jambalakadi1 > EB3 India will be 01-Apr-2001 and this date will fluctuates between 01-Apr-2001 and 15-Apr-2001 for next 3 years. So there is no hope for EB3 India..

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ALL SUBMITTED PREDICTIONS....

madgu-gc2005


Y EB2 ROW - Current
India - Jan 02 OR JAN 03

sfmars
Registered User Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 532

EB3 RoW can be current by Oct 2007 only
Y as for Oct 2006 EB3 RoW - May 2002


bharatpremi

My Prediction for OCT 06 Bulletin:
--------------------------------
EB3 - INDIA: April 15 2001
EB3 - ROW: May/June of 2003
EB2 - INDIA: JAN/FEB 2004
Y EB2 - ROW: MAY/JUNE 2005 OR Almost current


ecuellar


My prediction.

If Mexico passes the 245(i) hurdle then:

EB3 Mexico = EB3 World !


aawara

My guess

Y EB3 - India : April 2001
EB3 - ROW : July 2002

EB2 - India : Current
Y EB2 - ROW : Current


jambalakadi1


Y EB3 India will be 01-Apr-2001 and this date will fluctuates between 01-Apr-2001 and 15-Apr-2001 for next 3 years. So there is no hope for EB3 India..

EB2 India will start from Jan-2003 and move slowly but eventually become unavailable around Dec-06


garg_gaurav


Predictions/No miracles
EB3- June 2001
EB2 - March 2003

 

[dmbronner]

MEXICO DID NOT PASS THE 245i, ITS DATE IS MAY 01 2001, and you can file only BEFORE that date which means APRIL 30, 2001!!!! (245i LIMIT!)

INDIA: It seems that DOS is moving the unused EB1 and EB2 ROW visas to EB3 ROW only, additionally, more than 50% of the EB visas are Indians.

There is NO difference between April 30 or April 8 or April 15 2001, all of these dates are BEFORE 245i MESS!

 

[ecuellar]

MEXICO DID NOT PASS THE 245i, ITS DATE IS MAY 01 2001, and you can file only BEFORE that date which means APRIL 30, 2001!!!! (245i LIMIT!)

Ohh yes it did Bro!.... Also check how fast dates moved for ROW in the bulletins after they hit May 01 as well... the same is going to happen for Mexico.

 

[gingging]

Thank you……. Saras for the detail explanation.
Regards gingging

 

[ndnori]

gingging,

At the start of the year there are a total of 140,000 visas alloted to the EB3 category. There is a 7% cap for Indians, Chinese and Mexicans because their numbers tend to be much greater than other countries. When dates were current these caps were not being strictly applied but in times of retro the 7% cap is being applied to India, China and Mexcio EB3s. 7% of 140,000 9,800 and of these about 50% will go to spouses and dependents. So basically only about 4000 of so Eb3 visas are available India EB3s each year. I maybe be missing a few things here and there but this is pretty much a basic explaination.

regards,

saras

If I am not mistaken 140,000 visas are not allotted to EB3 only, but to all employment based catogeries.

 

[bharatpremi]

My Prediction for OCT 06 Bulletin:
--------------------------------
EB3 - INDIA: April 15 2001
EB3 - ROW: May/June of 2003
EB2 - INDIA: JAN/FEB 2004
EB2 - ROW: MAY/JUNE 2005 OR Almost current

I am almost correct for EB3 India and EB2 ROW.