FY2007 - Oct Bull Guess - Who hits the mark?

S

santa4u

Registered Users (C)
Ok Guys, let's get guessing....

who hits the mark on FY2007 - Oct Visa Bulletin....?

Here's my guess,

EB3
ROW - Jan 03
India - 30 Apr 01

EB2
ROW - Current
India - Jan 02

reward: accolades for the person on this forum who hits the mark....

- should know by mid-September the exact dates...
 
I think technically speaking it is unlikely that EB3 RoW could reach Jan 2003 because as far I read at Murthy.com, visa numbers are divided by quarters.


santa4u said:
Ok Guys, let's get guessing....

who hits the mark on FY2007 - Oct Visa Bulletin....?

Here's my guess,

EB3
ROW - Jan 03
India - 30 Apr 01

EB2
ROW - Current
India - Jan 02

reward: accolades for the person on this forum who hits the mark....

- should know by mid-September the exact dates...
Click to expand...
 
Staggered release ..

GCdreamer2006 said:
I think technically speaking it is unlikely that EB3 RoW could reach Jan 2003 because as far I read at Murthy.com, visa numbers are divided by quarters.
Click to expand...

GCdreamer2006,

You are absolutely right. The DOS releases visas quarterly so only 1/4 of the visas will be released on Oct 1. Now how much movement 1/4 visa numbers will cause is anyones guess. I am optimistic about EB3 ROW and have no clue about India EB3. I am bracing for the worst :(

regards,

saras
 
i think this makes sense

following is the post from immigrationvoice.com

Today, 08:36 AM
wam4wam
Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12


eb2 screwed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trishveen
There are lots of EB2 who are on a long list of backlog. Dont forget that all doctors fall into this category. Indians are not only waiting in the EB3 category but also in the EB 2 category



the last unprocessed date for eb2 is aug 1999

so when eb2 opens in october it will open at that date

after this there is about 350 cases from 8/99 to 1/03 including dependents this is about 800

so out of 2500 cases/year 800 will be consumed by previous years backlog

this does not include the cases yet to be released by backlog elimination center....those are about 500 more so eb2 is screwed

prediction
october 8/99
nov 8/01
dec 8/02
jan 2/03
feb3/03
mar 4/03
apr 6/03
may 1/04
jun1/04
july unav
aug unav
sep unav


eb3 india ....lets forget it

it would be lucky if it goes beyond may15 01 this year

eb3 world will go to 1/04 before the end of the year
 
ok_LA said:
following is the post from immigrationvoice.com

Today, 08:36 AM
wam4wam
Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12


eb2 screwed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trishveen
There are lots of EB2 who are on a long list of backlog. Dont forget that all doctors fall into this category. Indians are not only waiting in the EB3 category but also in the EB 2 category



the last unprocessed date for eb2 is aug 1999

so when eb2 opens in october it will open at that date

after this there is about 350 cases from 8/99 to 1/03 including dependents this is about 800

so out of 2500 cases/year 800 will be consumed by previous years backlog

this does not include the cases yet to be released by backlog elimination center....those are about 500 more so eb2 is screwed

prediction
october 8/99
nov 8/01
dec 8/02
jan 2/03
feb3/03
mar 4/03
apr 6/03
may 1/04
jun1/04
july unav
aug unav
sep unav


eb3 india ....lets forget it

it would be lucky if it goes beyond may15 01 this year

eb3 world will go to 1/04 before the end of the year
Click to expand...

This is interesting. So only about 350 cases left till Jan 03? This is more optimistic than I expected.
However, if 500 are remaining in the BEC and they release they along with dependents that'll shoot up to 2000 ( 850 applicants plus dependents), which will eat up almost a year's worth of EB2!!
It looks like it will get _extremely_ painful for 2003 and later candidates as some of those extra H1Bs issued from 2000-2003 also fall into line.
ok_la, what is the source of your information? Are these exact figures (or with acceptable error)?
nj_skm
 
santa4u said:
EB3
ROW - Jan 03
India - 30 Apr 01
Click to expand...

EB3 RoW at Jan 03 is being very very optimistic. I would say the range goes from Dec 01 (it IS possible that high demand will cause a fallback from Mar 02) to May 02, that's assuming demand was much lower than anticipated.
I am going with a more pessimistic view and say there might be a fallback, but no idea to which month/year.
 
My Prediction for OCT 06 Bulletin:
--------------------------------
EB3 - INDIA: April 15 2001
EB3 - ROW: May/June of 2003
EB2 - INDIA: JAN/FEB 2004
EB2 - ROW: MAY/JUNE 2005 OR Almost current
 
bharatpremi said:
My Prediction for OCT 06 Bulletin:
--------------------------------
EB3 - INDIA: April 15 2001
EB3 - ROW: May/June of 2003
EB2 - INDIA: JAN/FEB 2004
EB2 - ROW: MAY/JUNE 2005 OR Almost current
Click to expand...

ha ha ha!!! :D
Dude what have you been smokin'??
:cool:
 
bharatpremi said:
My Prediction for OCT 06 Bulletin:
--------------------------------
EB3 - INDIA: April 15 2001
EB3 - ROW: May/June of 2003
EB2 - INDIA: JAN/FEB 2004
EB2 - ROW: MAY/JUNE 2005 OR Almost current
Click to expand...

dude you are totally wrong about EB3 India, EB3 India will be Jan/Feb 2006

of course of I am kidding and so were you :))
 
nj_skm said:
ha ha ha!!! :D
Dude what have you been smokin'??
:cool:
Click to expand...

Do you see the need of smoking to get blurred? Once person is in Labor Queue he/she automatically become blurred after a while. Just kidding. But mostly I will be right except EB2-ROW.

- BharatPremi
 
ok_LA said:
following is the post from immigrationvoice.com

Today, 08:36 AM
wam4wam
Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12


eb2 screwed
.............................
Click to expand...

I really appreciate this post as this gives us some insight into the current situation. This is the kind of estimate that helps us look in the right direction rather than rhetoric that no one knows what DOS has etc etc... There are so many posts about when the so and so PD would be current, when one can file I485... The answer is simple --- most of us here are college graduates, it does not take great math to imagine how long it would take for DOS to clear India eb2 and eb3 while working on 2800 visa numbers per year. We tend not to accept this fact because it does not work right for us.
 
indian_gc_ocean said:
I really appreciate this post as this gives us some insight into the current situation. This is the kind of estimate that helps us look in the right direction rather than rhetoric that no one knows what DOS has etc etc... There are so many posts about when the so and so PD would be current, when one can file I485... The answer is simple --- most of us here are college graduates, it does not take great math to imagine how long it would take for DOS to clear India eb2 and eb3 while working on 2800 visa numbers per year. We tend not to accept this fact because it does not work right for us.
Click to expand...


sure....but do we know the exact numbers of backlogs in different queues???......no

yes...we do know EB3-india PD> 2003 is screwed for ever.....unless a miracle..

but EB2-India....its mostly speculative because we do not know the exact volume.....
 
techy2468 said:
sure....but do we know the exact numbers of backlogs in different queues???......no

yes...we do know EB3-india PD> 2003 is screwed for ever.....unless a miracle..

but EB2-India....its mostly speculative because we do not know the exact volume.....
Click to expand...
tha is right, thats why i liked that post as it gave some backlog numbers whether they are right or wrong. For easiest backlog guess work(though this does not give us exact numbers) we can look at the labor approvals in the BEC trackers. (Even more, look around and ask other indians if you work in NJ, bay area or dallas, we will know how many are waiting in eb3 and eb2s). Number of indian H1s also tell us the real story.
 
family based prefernce category number 4 will be december 1995 or january 1996. a jumo of 6 or 7 months!!!!!! fingers crossed!!!!! :)
 
My guess

EB3 - India : April 2001
EB3 - ROW : July 2002

EB2 - India : Current
EB2 - ROW : Current
 
if eb2 india is current again, there will be a flood of i-485 filings.
I think it is unlikely and somewhat unfair to our friends whose lcs are stuck in BECs.

DOS would most probably wait for all lcs from BECs to clear before starting to process perm-based EB2 I485. In this case, FY07 will start with EB2 PD around 03 (where it was before becoming U last year) and start moving at the rate of 3-6 months per month.
aawara said:
My guess

EB3 - India : April 2001
EB3 - ROW : July 2002

EB2 - India : Current
EB2 - ROW : Current
Click to expand...
 
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