EURO2014
Well-Known Member
See - this is pretty good, slightly below our number last year. I therefore would be pretty confident. Of course we know very well how nerve racking this is for you!
For those that just received their 2NL - submission date survey
- Thread starter Britsimon
- Start date
ok, I hope that you are right..
you should look at the number of visas issued this year vs last year in combination with the visa quotas per region for this year vs last year. there are many factors, which result in the current CNs as of now (density, response rate, approval rate etc.) and we do not possess this info for the last year. So compare knowns with knows, and not unknowns.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
"So compare knowns with knows, and not unknowns" - not quite sure what you want to say specifically with this (presumably you are not suggesting the impossibility to use LY as any indicator for EU 2015 progress, are you? The fact of the matter is that in statistical analysis 100% of information is never available, otherwise it won't be needed), yet would certainly agree with your last sentence as a general statement.
Same boat here. My CN is EU393XX and I'm terrified to see the next VB. I really hope this year is at least going to meet the same cutoff as last year. I think what's also frustrating is to not fully understand why KCC suddenly slowed down the VB progress after having done so once already (in May) and after the very encouraging progress in last month's VB. But hopefully, August will be a repeat of June and both of our numbers will be included this time
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Thank you for being in touch. Looking at historical numbers it becomes clear that "uneven progress" is rather the norm, not the exception:Same boat here. My CN is EU393XX and I'm terrified to see the next VB. I really hope this year is at least going to meet the same cutoff as last year. I think what's also frustrating is to not fully understand why KCC suddenly slowed down the VB progress after having done so once already (in May) and after the very encouraging progress in last month's VB. But hopefully, August will be a repeat of June and both of our numbers will be included this time
https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1
The good news is that in many case, it was followed by higher subsequent increases. Personally, I would think that EU numbers below 40K should, in fact, have a realistic chance this year.
This is not a general statement, man. I mean do not compare bare CNs of this year with those of last year. CNshave many unknowns (density, response rate, approval rate etc.), whereas issued visas as of May of this and last year are certain figures. Also the quotas are more or less predictable (knowns)..."So compare knowns with knows, and not unknowns" - not quite sure what you want to say specifically with this (presumably you are not suggesting the impossibility to use LY as any indicator for EU 2015 progress, are you? The fact of the matter is that in statistical analysis this is never, ever the case, otherwise it won't be needed), yet would certainly agree with your last sentence as a general statement.
If you prefer to see what I said in figures please see below:
So obviously I am not saying general statements.
The percentages, you presented, were missing statistical information (density, response rate, approval rate etc.) of last year, which are unknowns.
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EURO2014
Well-Known Member
I really wish I knew what you are talking about....
Wait, do you happen to have a high EU number above 39,6xx and therefore do not appreciate people making deviating predictions to your expectations? Well, maybe this simply is it then.
i am presenting the fact that even less visas have been issued for eu as of now compared to last year. so yr simple cn comparisons of this and last year is not any informative. I have a cn in yr mentioned range. but i did not do any prediction. u just did it above and yr predicted range covered my cn..I really wish I knew what you are talking about....
Wait, do you happen to have a high EU number above 39,6xx and therefore do not appreciate people making deviating predictions to your expectations? Well, maybe this simply is it then.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
I suspect it is a waste of time, yet if you were to read my earlier post closely
"I suspect the decision to be made by KCC will be based on factors including YTD progress of other regions and not just simply clearing off any pending EU backlog, hence this point might be overstated in the discussion.
Actually, Europe looks comparably pretty good right now - while EU and OC are just slightly off YTD July vs. LY (EU -1.65%; OC -3.85%), this clearly is not the case for SA (-24.19%), AS (- 23.03%) or AF (-35.17%)"
you would probably see that the point I was trying to make is simply that regions are interdependent and that the final result for Europe will to a large degree depend on the situation of the other regions. Obviously, if this were the case, it would be bad news for EU and, possibly, your high CN. However, as I also said earlier, I still believe that EU numbers below 40K still have got a chance this year, the question is just how many numbers below 40K...
"I suspect the decision to be made by KCC will be based on factors including YTD progress of other regions and not just simply clearing off any pending EU backlog, hence this point might be overstated in the discussion.
Actually, Europe looks comparably pretty good right now - while EU and OC are just slightly off YTD July vs. LY (EU -1.65%; OC -3.85%), this clearly is not the case for SA (-24.19%), AS (- 23.03%) or AF (-35.17%)"
you would probably see that the point I was trying to make is simply that regions are interdependent and that the final result for Europe will to a large degree depend on the situation of the other regions. Obviously, if this were the case, it would be bad news for EU and, possibly, your high CN. However, as I also said earlier, I still believe that EU numbers below 40K still have got a chance this year, the question is just how many numbers below 40K...
I am saying that the progress of the regions should be evaluated based on the number of visas issued as of now compared to quota for each region and and compared to last year's progress based on this you will see that the progress of EU is not much or is comparable to the other regions' progress. As of May 15, the rough estimate of the remaining visas for the AF, EU, and AS regions are 11.3k, 8.6k, and 4k respectively. in percentage terms, remaining visas for AF, EU, and AS are 55%, 45%, 51%. So what you say has some truth, but let's not forget that Embassies not always updated CEAC info especially probably AF.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Look, I personally would be very happy if Europe would go f a r beyond last year and even possibly became current, I really would. My only question to the data you presented would be: if everything is so peachy and KCC has all these many Visa desparately waiting to be issued, why oh why did they slow down, but did not noticeably speed up as they would definitely have to do in this case? Is it because they have better information or is it because they don't want EU to run along and eat all the cake by its own? Good luck to everyone with higher CN's!
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
You know that these month to month predictions are still largely guesswork. Yet I certainly would expect a larger jump in EU, as compared to last VB, likely somewhere between 2,500 and 3,500. What nobody knows, most likely not even KCC as it hasn't been decided yet, is what, if anything, will happen for September. Hopefully we will see another increase, albeit smaller, this year. Good luck to you!
EURO2014, I think it would be better to wait the new CEAC data to see the picture and to understand the situation. Hopefully, we will have it on Tuesday? Otherwise, everything is just a guess. They may have slowed down as they cleared 2.5 months' backlog cases, reaching to end of March - beginning of April for DS processing from mid January. Or as you said, they may have slowed down EU to align with other regions.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Ultimately we will wait until the VB August 2015 will be published on or around July 8, 2015 to know what the outcome for DV2015 will be, except for the lucky few who will become current in August with the forthcoming Bulletin. Simply to go on record: I think the available CEAC data in its current form is useful to understand in hindsight what has happened, it is noticeably less useful to make effective predictions on what will be happening - the last month is a rather good example, yet certainly not the only one, for my position.
Lastly, BlueRaven had asked us for an estimate for the coming month and year-end, which is what I provided. Obviously, any forecast comes with uncertainty and some level of risk to the person who makes it - why don't you give it a try and we can then compare those in due course with published results? Statistical numbers must be good for something, no? I certainly stand, at this time, with my earlier communicated 2,500 - 3,500 range and would be rather surprised if it were completely out of range - we will see. In fact, I would assume that the higher a jump we will see in August for EU, the less likely is may become to see another noticeable increase for September, if any. That's all...
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but what is your final EU cut off prediction? you gave your prediction only for the next VB.Ultimately we will wait until the VB August 2015 will be published on or around July 8, 2015 to know what the outcome for DV2015 will be, except for the lucky few who will become current in August with the forthcoming Bulletin. Simply to go on record: I think the available CEAC data in its current form is useful to understand in hindsight what has happened, it is noticeably less useful to make effective predictions on what will be happening - the last month is a rather good example, yet certainly not the only one, for my position.
Lastly, BlueRaven had asked us for an estimate for the coming month and year-end, which is what I provided. Obviously, any forecast comes with uncertainty and some level of risk to the person who makes it - why don't you give it a try and we can then compare those in due course with published results? Statistical numbers must be good for something, no? I certainly stand, at this time, with my earlier communicated 2,500 - 3,500 range and would be rather surprised if it were completely out of range - we will see. In fact, I would assume that the higher a jump we will see in August for EU, the less likely is may become to see another noticeable increase for September, if any. That's all...
Annanz
Member
Hi,
May I ask about last year. When the Aug VB came out did people realise it was the last VB? Or did they want an additional month to doscover there was to be no extra increase?
In other words-when the VB came out for Aug interviews, was it announced that there would be no CN increase for September?
Thank you,
Annanz (CN:EU39100)
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Sure, no problem of course, looking forward to your thoughts. Euro2014