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For those that just received their 2NL - submission date survey

adela15 said:
that might also mean that lots of people submitted in feb and jan..it is actually make me very worried about the new VB increase
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I can't see the reason of your concern. The more later submitted forms have been process, the lesser backlog cases remain. I have read on Simon's blog that someone with end of March DS submission received 2nl. So the backlog is reducing
 
Candeu said:
I can't see the reason of your concern. The more later submitted forms have been process, the lesser backlog cases remain. I have read on Simon's blog that someone with end of March DS submission received 2nl. So the backlog is reducing
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I hope so...but KCC is unpredictable..there is only one left VB for EU..in which the numbers will increase..waiting is so stressful..i am just preparing myself for the worst - my number not current- there is no point to just be hopeful, to only get disappointed - maybe I am too pessimistic..
 
Candeu said:
I can't see the reason of your concern. The more later submitted forms have been process, the lesser backlog cases remain. I have read on Simon's blog that someone with end of March DS submission received 2nl. So the backlog is reducing
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Well, I guess the possible concern as expressed by adela15 is not without basis, is it? The more electronic DS-260's are being submitted late during the DV year, yet still in time for being processed and scheduled for interviews, the more "slots" are being filled with the net effect of density noticeably increasing. Higher density of CN numbers, scheduled for consulate interviews, is in turn bad for CN progression as announced in VB's and therefore for folks holding high CN's. Makes sense?
 
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adela15 said:
I hope so...but KCC is unpredictable..there is only one left VB for EU..in which the numbers will increase..waiting is so stressful..i am just preparing myself for the worst - my number not current- there is no point to just be hopeful, to only get disappointed - maybe I am too pessimistic..
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There are two VBs left, so it is possible EU will see increases in both of those. They stopped EU in August last year, but that isn't a certainty for this year.
 
Britsimon said:
There are two VBs left, so it is possible EU will see increases in both of those. They stopped EU in August last year, but that isn't a certainty for this year.
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hopefully..i think it depends how much next VB increases to see if there is any chance of increase for next next VB
 
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EURO2014 said:
Well, I guess the possible concern as expressed by adela15 is not without basis, is it? The more electronic DS-260's are being submitted late during the DV year, yet still in time for being processed and scheduled for interviews, the more "slots" are being filled with the net effect of density noticeably increasing. Higher density of CN numbers, scheduled for consulate interviews, is in turn bad for CN progression as announced in VB's and therefore for folks holding high CN's. Makes sense?
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On the other hand, if the last low VB increase was due to the clearance of the backlog and the latest VB submission, which has been cleared, was end of March, it means that the backlog has been reduced and for the next VB more CNs should go to the newly current cases. One month's backlog is obviously lower than two months' backlog. agree?
 
Candeu said:
On the other hand, if the last low VB increase was due to the clearance of the backlog and the latest VB submission, which has been cleared, was end of March, it means that the backlog has been reduced and for the next VB more CNs should go to the newly current cases. One month's backlog is obviously lower than two months' backlog. agree?
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if there are more lower CNs less that 35700, that have submitted late - March/April, and they will end processing this month just in time to be scheduled for August, then next VB will not increase that much
 
no one can guess April late submissions, especially based on January-February submissions. furthermore, 2.5 months backlog should be less than on month's.
You can think the worst possible way, the result is not going to change from that. all we will either pass or not. so better think positively, but be prepared for the worst. thinking positively transfers positive energy anyway...
 
Candeu said:
no one can guess April late submissions, especially based on January-February submissions. furthermore, 2.5 months backlog should be less than on month's.
You can think the worst possible way, the result is not going to change from that. all we will either pass or not. so better think positively, but be prepared for the worst. thinking positively transfers positive energy anyway...
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maybe you are right .. you think if we think all positive :) , we will attract a big VB increase? :)..that would be good
 
I think we should be positive, but be prepared for the worst. anyway, logically the backlog should be much less now than before, though no one knows..
 
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Candeu said:
I think we should be positive, but be prepared for the worst. anyway, logically the backlog should be much less now than before, though one one knows..
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I personally think the all important final outcome for many with high EU CN's in DV2015 will result from the decision on whether we will see one more VB increase or possibly two for the remainder of this DV year. I suspect the decision to be made by KCC will be based on factors including YTD progress of other regions and not just simply clearing off any pending EU backlog, hence this point might be overstated in the discussion.
Actually, Europe looks comparably pretty good right now - while EU and OC are just slightly off YTD July vs. LY (EU -1.65%; OC -3.85%), this clearly is not the case for SA (-24.19%), AS (- 23.03%) or AF (-35.17%).
 
EURO2014 said:
I personally think the all important final outcome for many with high EU CN's in DV2015 will result from the decision whether we will see one more VB increase or possibly two for the remainder of this DV year. I suspect the decision to be made by KCC will be based on factors including YTD progress of other regions and not just simply clearing off any pending EU backlog, hence this point might be overstated in the discussion.
Actually, Europe looks comparably pretty good right now - while EU and OC are just slightly off YTD July vs. LY (EU -1.65%; OC -3.85%), this clearly is not the case for SA (-24.19%), AS (- 23.03%) or AF (-35.17%).
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guess the hope is sort of 0% then
 
adela15 said:
guess the hope is sort of 0% then
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No, this is not the way I would see it - we will however only find out for sure once the last and final VB for 2015 will come out. Unfortunately, it will therefore be nerve racking for many.
 
EURO2014 said:
No, this is not the way I would see it - we will however only find out for sure once the last and final VB for 2015 will come out. Unfortunately, it will therefore be nerve racking for many.
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I am not even sure if I can look at next VB, as it will be so upsetting if the cut off is just in front of my CN.
 
adela15 said:
I am not even sure if I can look at next VB, as it will be so upsetting if the cut off is just in front of my CN.
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We strongly feel with you, as we were exactly in your position last year with CN 2014EU37,9xx, and did not dare to open the damn thing for some time
 
but you did made it right? as last year EU was 40150 or something like this..so it is very good for you...I think I need to assume that I am not getting current ..this way I am prepared...for the worst
 
adela15 said:
but you did made it right? as last year EU was 40150 or something like this..so it is very good for you...I think I need to assume that I am not getting current ..this way I am prepared...for the worst
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What is your number range? Don't be pessimistic at this stage, depending on your exact number you will be fine.
Yes, we finally made August last year, yet this turned out to be the last and only chance, as you know, as there finally turned out to be no additional increase for September.
 
congrats ..even if you are already LPR...my CN is EU3756X.. I will have to ask someone to check VB for me next time, as I have no courage to look at it.
 
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