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Facts !

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ahmedragia21

Registered Users (C)
If that software is a TRULY random , it will NEVER select the pass winners , the fact is past winners will not get selected and losers will get selected :) .
If anybody here is a mathematician , he can tell us these facts ...
but nothing is random 100% ...
 
If you throw a coin, and it's heads (win) the first time, for a second throw probability to get tails (lose) is higher. Because with an infinite number of throws heads/tails probability is 50/50. Same principle here, although with different probabilities.
 
The second coin toss is an independent event. Each one in isolation has the same chance to result in a head or tail. It is just the expectation that over a large consecutive number of throws the number of heads and tails will be about the same.

Those initially selected have an equal probability of winning as the ones who have not been selected before.
However, most of them will not be reselected because the chances are only 0.5% of getting selected in the first place. But they have an equal chance as those who have not been initially selected.
 
Past 'winners' will have an equal chance as the other 14 million persons in the pool. The results of the first drawing has no bearing on the draw to be done in July, they are independent events. Because of my understanding of probabilities, I can bet that there will be persons who will 'win' again.
 
baobab said:
the second coin toss is an independent event. Each one in isolation has the same chance to result in a head or tail. It is just the expectation that over a large consecutive number of throws the number of heads and tails will be about the same.

Those initially selected have an equal probability of winning as the ones who have not been selected before.
However, most of them will not be reselected because the chances are only 0.5% of getting selected in the first place. But they have an equal chance as those who have not been initially selected.
Click to expand...

this is correct......
 
Ok, maybe you're right. I'm not a mathematician.

However, most of them will not be reselected
Click to expand...
Yes, probabilities still should be multiplied, something like 0.01 (actual) * 0.16 (wrong one, for 5th and 6th, just a guess) = 0.0016 = pwned.
 
sonibago said:
Past 'winners' will have an equal chance as the other 14 million persons in the pool. The results of the first drawing has no bearing on the draw to be done in July, they are independent events. Because of my understanding of probabilities, I can bet that there will be persons who will 'win' again.
Click to expand...
Yup, some of the 'initial' winners may win again, but the percentage will be very small as the spread is now wider (+ 14 million). But the chances of winning remain equal across the board.
 
ahmedragia21 said:
If that software is a TRULY random , it will NEVER select the pass winners , the fact is past winners will not get selected and losers will get selected :) .
If anybody here is a mathematician , he can tell us these facts ...
but nothing is random 100% ...
Click to expand...

Oh, so now the people who did not get selected on May/1st are losers, are they?

Do not hate on the others, "hate the game". It's exactly what it is - a game.

The former winners will have the exact same chance they would have had if the first draw was a random one.
 
CraigToomy said:
If you throw a coin, and it's heads (win) the first time, for a second throw probability to get tails (lose) is higher. Because with an infinite number of throws heads/tails probability is 50/50. Same principle here, although with different probabilities.
Click to expand...
That is not true...once you have the coin second time in your hands, it does NOT HAVE MEMORY what was the first result, every time probability is 50%.
 
The second coin toss is an independent event. Each one in isolation has the same chance to result in a head or tail. It is just the expectation that over a large consecutive number of throws the number of heads and tails will be about the same.

Those initially selected have an equal probability of winning as the ones who have not been selected before.
However, most of them will not be reselected because the chances are only 0.5% of getting selected in the first place. But they have an equal chance as those who have not been initially selected.
Click to expand...
My estimate is well above 0.5%. here are my estimates for DV-2011:
Africa 2.06%
Asia 0.68%
Europe 1.75%
North America 0.47%
Oceania 4.63%
South America and Carribean 1.07%
 
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