Britsimon
Super Moderator
I have seen people reporting numbers up to DV2016AS17000.
DV2016 Winners From ASIA ?
- Thread starter Mr.Josh.Tampan
- Start date
I have seen people reporting numbers up to DV2016AS17000.
Thanks for the info, I didnt see that.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
It was someone on my blog.
Sensei-san
Active Member
If 17000 is credible, that is quite a piece of infromation for asians with 10xxx-11xxx. Which there are a lot of these in the forum.
vanchandavy
Member
I think it may not be possible for DV2016 with AS17000 , since the selectee for DV2015 in Asia is 19999 while the case number is slightly under 19999 according to the data releasing on @Britsimon blog . If comparing to this year DV2016 for Asia , the winner is 15002 and the case number should be less than the winner according to Last year case .
This is just my thought . San
Sensei-san
Active Member
It is very possible. We do not have the number of entries by country for 2016 yet to estimate the density (or CEAC data).
However, the idea that we can take away from knowing the highest number of 17xxx and that there 6,700 ROAs for2016, is that there are 394 ROA people per 1000 of asian CNs. For 2015 the number is 527 (10,019/19xxx). Thus, the density of Nepal and Iran in the lower ranges could have been even higher in 2016 than in 2015. Of course, having less selectees for the two countries, even if you keep the density constant, means that they are limited earlier in the process (unless the Iran-Nepa-ROA proportions shifted singnificantly).
So keeping last year's nominal derivative ratios constant and plugging in ROA people's density per 1000 for 2016, the selection could look like this:
(Remember, this is just a rough illustration)
There are a lot of unknown variables at this stage, so the purpose of this table is more of an academical visualisation significance.
Another point is that, unless AP-Issued rate for Iran improves in 2016, Iran as well as Nepal will go the distance. That is the country limit is unlikely. Eventhough Nepal could be expected to have lower derivative ratio than Iran, Nepal was limited in the selection at 3,800 people. Thus, the highest case for Nepal should be lower than the one for Iran this time.
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Idea Mani
Active Member
Upto CN 8000 will have same density in 2015 & 2016. They reduce Nepal selection due to high approval & high response rate. From Nepal 3800 people they can hit the country limit (3500). Where as Iran got 4500 almost same amount of selection in 2015 & 2016 due high AP.
It is going to be same progress in 2015 & 2016 upto CN 8000, then they will be a big jump in the last two or three VBs, It may go current in 2016.
Sensei-san
Active Member
I figure the full-scale density would be up to 7000, but it can easily be up to 8000, yes.
For Nepal, as a matter of fact they needed 3,717 people to issue 3504 visas last year. In addition to the fact that they selected 91k people this year, 3,800 for Nepal confirms that they tried to be reasonable this time. If there is a country limit, it will not leave out many people.
For Iran, there are almost 500 or 10% people less this year.
I hope they would start having bulliten jumps in the last three VBs. But the data so far is not really indicative that the jumps will come earlier. If the lower ROA density is confirmed, they should have bigger jumps though.
As many people have said , in order to realize and predict the visa issuance trend for a given FY, one must review the recent years data.
Reviewing the past couple of years, we can easily notice the growing number of entrants and as well the increasing response rate.
After reading the discussions over the threads here and in Britsimon's blog in particular, it is to my understanding that , DV program for Asia participants has turned to an excessive lottery-ish play, which doesn't reflect the notion created by the American law makers.
I am aware of the fact that every year KCC studies the statistics and make amendments in order to not processing less than 50k visas on the one hand , and not leaving disappointed winners behind - on the other hand.
Now take a breath please, and allow me to explain my thought ------
Nepal and Iran selectees are concentrated in the front line , as a result of high number of entrants and subsequently disqualifying high CNs (from these two contries).
As to ROA - although they have equal chance to be selected , they have little room in the front line and as a result - less are fortunate to get the green card. and sadly, dv 2015 is very disappointing for ROA.
If you are a ROA selectee you are automatically playing an additional lottery game -had you got a case number lower than 10K you won. (I wish I'm wrong and dv 2015 results wont reoccur in the future)
I cross my fingers for dv 2015 winners and hope that KCC didn't shrink DV 2016 winners number in vain.
Feel free to voice your opinion!
Reviewing the past couple of years, we can easily notice the growing number of entrants and as well the increasing response rate.
After reading the discussions over the threads here and in Britsimon's blog in particular, it is to my understanding that , DV program for Asia participants has turned to an excessive lottery-ish play, which doesn't reflect the notion created by the American law makers.
I am aware of the fact that every year KCC studies the statistics and make amendments in order to not processing less than 50k visas on the one hand , and not leaving disappointed winners behind - on the other hand.
Now take a breath please, and allow me to explain my thought ------
Nepal and Iran selectees are concentrated in the front line , as a result of high number of entrants and subsequently disqualifying high CNs (from these two contries).
As to ROA - although they have equal chance to be selected , they have little room in the front line and as a result - less are fortunate to get the green card. and sadly, dv 2015 is very disappointing for ROA.
If you are a ROA selectee you are automatically playing an additional lottery game -had you got a case number lower than 10K you won. (I wish I'm wrong and dv 2015 results wont reoccur in the future)
I cross my fingers for dv 2015 winners and hope that KCC didn't shrink DV 2016 winners number in vain.
Feel free to voice your opinion!
ernawati
New Member
Need help ASAP...
I am a DV 2016 winner, my CN is AS13XX. I fill the D260 form last May9. But yesterday I saw that I made some mistakes, because I missunderstood. I answered NO for the question about visa refusal, but on 2010 I apply visa but not approved. Another misatake is, I answer I myself who apply this DV lottery, but it is my uncle. So, is it okay if I unlock D260 now to fix the mistakes??
Thank you for your help...
I am a DV 2016 winner, my CN is AS13XX. I fill the D260 form last May9. But yesterday I saw that I made some mistakes, because I missunderstood. I answered NO for the question about visa refusal, but on 2010 I apply visa but not approved. Another misatake is, I answer I myself who apply this DV lottery, but it is my uncle. So, is it okay if I unlock D260 now to fix the mistakes??
Thank you for your help...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes you certainly should unlock asap. The visa refusal question is important to get right.
ernawati
New Member
Thank you so much Mr. Britsimon, you are great...!!!
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
DAYAN PERERA
New Member
my CN 82XX from Sri Lanka.
what are the chances i have?please explain am i safe or not.thanks in advanced.
what are the chances i have?please explain am i safe or not.thanks in advanced.
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
Last year's cutoff for Asia was 7650 so you aren't safe. However in previous years you would have been in easily. Let's say 50-50.
DAYAN PERERA
New Member
So whatz the reason for last year low number?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The number was sufficient to fill the quota, although in the end a lot of Iranian AP cases did not clear so the quota was missed.
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
If you're processing AOS, please post your questions on the AOS Thread only! Posting AOS related question on none AOS Threads causes confusion for other selectee's.