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DV2012 Publicity Backfires, lowering the winning chances in future DVs

J

judasgaga

Registered Users (C)
Technology and the internet has increased awareness of the Diversity Visa Program in the recent years and numbers of applicants have kept on increasing with the increasing awareness of the program.

In 2012, a record breaking 14.7 million applicants! The highest ever!

This means that the chances of winning a green card has never been so low in history!

I predict that in the coming years numbers of applicants are going to increase sharply due to the advent of facebook, twitter, social media etc

Furthermore, all this publicity around the DV2012 disaster being published in online newspapers and local news papers, will increase the awareness of the DV program amongst the general public and I suspect that a lot more people will apply in DV2013.

The lawsuit against DoS has to go through because all this effort to get the 22000 win is a go-all-in move. Winning is the only option because the publicity is going to work against all of us if we lose.
 
You don't what others to be aware of the dv lottery?

For the publicity, i have no problem with it, at least DOS will be careful next time before posting results.
 
judasgaga said:
Technology and the internet has increased awareness of the Diversity Visa Program in the recent years and numbers of applicants have kept on increasing with the increasing awareness of the program.

In 2012, a record breaking 14.7 million applicants! The highest ever!

This means that the chances of winning a green card has never been so low in history!

I predict that in the coming years numbers of applicants are going to increase sharply due to the advent of facebook, twitter, social media etc

Furthermore, all this publicity around the DV2012 disaster being published in online newspapers and local news papers, will increase the awareness of the DV program amongst the general public and I suspect that a lot more people will apply in DV2013.

The lawsuit against DoS has to go through because all this effort to get the 22000 win is a go-all-in move. Winning is the only option because the publicity is going to work against all of us if we lose.
Click to expand...

What is it you want to bring across? Less attention to increase your chances or more attention and getting a free ride? Make up your mind...
 
depends of the country ...yes there is almost 15 million people applying but about half of them are from 5-6 countries ..I think only from BANGLADESH you have almost 2 million people ...NIGERIA also "produce" almost as much ..so all in all if you are from those countries then I say your chances are very low but if you are from say EUROPE your chances are very high (excluding UKRAINE who also has about 70-100 000 entries )
 
PRAHA said:
depends of the country ...yes there is almost 15 million people applying but about half of them are from 5-6 countries ..I think only from BANGLADESH you have almost 2 million people ...NIGERIA also "produce" almost as much ..so all in all if you are from those countries then I say your chances are very low but if you are from say EUROPE your chances are very high (excluding UKRAINE who also has about 70-100 000 entries )
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not realy, half of them are from just 1 country, bangladesh with 7.5 millions out of 14.7 total... second is nigeria with 1.4 millions (2 millions with deriviatives), then ukraine with almost a million
 
The DV brings each years 40 millions of dollars... Do you realy think they will end it? Back in 2001 Bush was the president, they had the 9/11 & still didn't cancel it... They won't cancel it, it bring too much money & keep some peoples at work
Maju said:
That is if the Dv program survives this whole fiasco and congress does not end it.
Click to expand...
 
Try getting your girlfriend pregnant while she is on the pill to see if you're really "lucky"

I don't know if people realize that at 14.7 million entrants, chances are very very very close to zero anyway.

and 14 million is like a word but that is like

14 000 000

That is, like, EVERYBODY AND THEIR MOTHERS IN CAMBODIA.

Doesn't matter if you're from Nigeria or from Netherlands, your chances will decrease as the pool increases. Applications by country range from thousands to millions, regions like Europe might have smaller pool, but it is still in the thousands and millions.

It is not "very high" to begin with as all chances are pretty close to zero. Birth control pills have a higher failure rate than you winning the visa lottery, which means, it is more likely that your girlfriend gets pregnant while she is on the pill than for you to win the lottery.

So given this very low chance to start with, increase in number of applicants will further erode your chance.

If Bangladesh has 2 million applicants and it becomes 4 million, your chances will be halved.

If Netherlands have 2000 applicants and it becomes 4000, your chances will be equally halved also.

If you're from Europe perhaps you have higher chances than a person from Africa but you will have less chance next year than you would have in the current year.

Especially given the economic crisis in Europe and many young europeans in countries like Greece and Spain face epic unemployment rates.
 
uh ..well I can tell you first hand about that theory ..in my country about 9500 people applied and 700 people won ..and out of that number only little more then 400 went trough the whole process at the time when I got GC...so the chance is mos def bigger in EU then say BANGLADESH..percentage wise ..in EU less and less people want to go to US ..if they go ..its on time limited job offers ...to put it simple ..salaries in the US are low and life expenses high ..also lack of social programs in the US covering family issues which are taken for granted in EU ...etc

also US is in deep crisis far worse then EU because its a crisis of the system in whole rather then just issue of economy alone

you mentioned Greece for example ..average american worker would be surprised with comparative work standards greek workers enjoy even now when austerity measures are introduced regarding salaries ,free housing (yes free housing ) and very long holidays (4 weeks summer + 2 weeks winter vacation + christmas+easter +national day holidays =10-11 weeks)
also bear in mind that combined debt of Greece /Ireland/Portugal an Spain's is about 380 billion euros or 510 billion dollars ..whereas US DEBT IS 15 TRILLION or 15 000 BILLIONS DOLLARS )...and US even have almost 100 million people LESS THEN EU
 
Bangladesh 7.5 millions entrans... ukrain, 700k, nigeria..1.4 millions... thoses are the bad ones, the rest, especialy in africa & eurpe stand a deacent chance
 
@ Jayo2k. Each time you say chances of people winning from Nigeria is very low, given the the number of applicant 1.4 Million. My heart skips. But i can only be hopeful, but next expect to win. In all let's wait and see come July 15th. A lot of folks will smile, while a lot would be sad. I hope to be on the side that would be smiling on that day.. Good Luck to everybody
 
@ Jayo2k. Each time you say chances of people winning from Nigeria is very low, given the the number of applicant 1.4 Million. My heart skips. But i can only be hopeful, but not expect to win. In all let's wait and see come July 15th. A lot of folks will smile, while a lot would be sad. I hope to be on the side that would be smiling on that day.. Good Luck to everybody
 
*sigh* why can't people read?

I never argue about the chances being higher or lower between regions.

I said your chances yourself lowers with the increment of applicants.
You never compete with people with different regions ie this year you are in Europe pool, next year it becomes Nigeria pool.

Whatever you're from Europe and say there are 9500 people applied and 700 won in the year you won.

I assume this was a few years ago. Now the applicants are higher.

Lets say that more people applied, say 15 000 (almost ~9500 x 1.5), your chances that year will decrease. # people who win will not be ~700 x 1.5 = 1050

This is because the total number of winners are permanent every year.

So if the larger total pool is 14 million or 20 million, your chances will lower... unless your region sends less people in the next years (remember they don't pick within country, they just limit by country-- they pick within region).

I agree, the working conditions and the living standards, education quality, health care are absolute crap in the US. Does this deter people from coming to the US? The numbers speak for themselves.
 
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